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A new start - my portfolio (real - Dec/2018) and my thoughts

Cliffs: I created a new-ish portfolio at 27/11

Portfolio composition: ERQ NTI STV THA UEI

To buy after a DD: KVL, KDT (or KDS)
Watching: many (CBY, CWT, CBV, SCQ, SYO etc)

Target: Buy and hold. Aiming for 12 darwins depending on time availability - more darwins require more monitoring. Equity at risk/monthly VAR staying <1400E. Make profits. Not in that order :slight_smile:

Current portfolio thoughts/details

SYO I was planning to add SYO (perfect for my diversification aim) but the recent and sudden AUM increase (1mil+) in a darwin that shows divergence (but not AUM dependent one so far) made me wait.
ERQ is probably gonna be sold (waiting to see if this new investor takes her/his investment out of it as I think he did in 2-3 others). Simply put I see a small chance that ERQ with 1.1mil AUM is gonna be investable due to excessive divergence. I am sad.
KVL I hate that I sold it trying to trade it in the past. Perfect for diversification from the “soul” of this forum @CavaliereVerde.
THA scares me (no new high and bad divergence in the past) so I am watchijng it closely. I chose to add it for diversification.
UEI tight stop loss in this one. I like this trader’s participation in the forum.
STV the only volatility darwin I have in my portfolio. Prepared to toss it if the low volatility market period continues. I have sold LVS,GTD,ICX after 20%+ DD but at the same time I need one volatility darwin. Either STV or SCS are my current thoughts. FEG is also another option.

At the moment I plan to have 1 volatility darwin, 1 scalp, 1 news event, KVL, 2 sniper ones (as per the IP’s categorization). Adding SYO that trades stocks would be perfect but…

Main mistakes I made in the past:
a) Beginning of the year: small portfolio that had THA,LVS,QUA mainly in it. THA divergence and QUA DD/divergence hurt.
b) In the second part of the year: Having 7-8 (main ones: LVS,GTD,ICX,ERQ,NTI,PGH,STV) darwins in my portfolio that had way too many volatility darwins. The categorization of Darwins and the suggested diversification suggested on the Investor’s Program (IP) played a big role in making me give Darwinex another shot. I wish the IP was out at the start of the year though.
c) Buying and selling darwins more often than I would have liked.

More unecessary details for anyone caring:

After the abysmal results I had in 2018, particularly the last 3 months,

the recent darwinia changes, the mediocre results of people way more knowledgable in portfolio management and buying/finishing the darwinex’s investor program I have come to some (maybe wrong) conclusions.

  1. This platform - darwinex - has created a new asset class and its my belief we (investors of darwinex) are the first to try to manage other traders strategies from newly created attributes. Its not as easy as it seems.

  2. The new change in darwinia (traders need more money invested in their darwins to participate for higher prizes) makes me think that those attributes (dscore/rs/la etc) are not enough on their own to make the “who is the better darwin” distinction. The admittance in the investor’s program (from Javier Colón) that in order to be sure when to sell a darwin in most cases requires advanced statistical analysis with access in the API did little to change my mind.

In short I am here to make money but I also like this platform (the idea and its execution) so I was in a dilemma. My initial thought was to stop investing here but I decided to withdraw most of my funds and giving it another shot building a new portfolio with a smaller equity at risk (or “monthly risk tolerance” as is called in the program) and more importantly trying to apply what I learned from this program and what other people (@CavaliereVerde, @yhlasx @forexelate etc) are doing. Main reason I created this thread is because I thought that maybe I have something to add now after studying the investor’s program.

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This investors program is the recently launched education thing? I gotta yet check it out. Were there any really valuable insights?

Edit: this diversification over categories is something I have been trying to expand on my own portfolio recently as well. I intend to have 2/30 in scalpers as well

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Yes thats it. For me there were some but it certainly could be a lot more.

For you I doubt it :slight_smile:

All in all I dont regret buying it at all. Only the darwin categorization that it suggests would have saved me thousands of euros (from not having as many volatility darwins in my portfolio) and it costs 178E.

edit: in my opinion ANYONE that is starting to invest in darwinex should read it.

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I try to be somewhat glad that I am encountering difficult investors environment at the very start of my Darwinex investment period. Otherwise I would have had a poor portfolio, and would have remained content because it would have kept generating returns due to favorable conditions, and not because portfolio was good - and then would probably have been caught off guard. While pains from the get go is frustrating, I hope that at the end I can successfully construct a solid portfolio.

Edit: also I would advise not to worry about divergence in SYO just yet. I have been very very closely monitoring it - the trades last all day on NDX as long as there is no serious reversal - divergence should not easily pop up on such duration trading

That bit about complexity of determining when to sell a darwin is concerning - I would think if there exists a generally applicable statistical model for determining when a darwin is about to go bad, it would already be included in Dscore calculations. So probably for buy and hold portfolio, Dscore is good enough.

Also, could you please clarify what “sniper” category of Darwins entail? :smile:

Edit: Also I would strongly caution against SCS. I have been closely monitoring it - I’m not even slightly convinced that past performance is real

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The Sniper
These are strategies that look for abrupt, short term and very specific price movements. They are characterized by there being very few operations per month, in very few assets, with positions lasting between 15 minutes and 8 hours. Most are algorithmic operators, performing operations automatically.

to be honest I dont know if that copy paste was in order - they charge a price for it after all. If thats wrong let me know and I will remove it. @ignacio

edited as @yhlasx suggested

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I suggest editing it out, and leaving a small descriptor, such as Darwins that exploit short term movements with superb timing and consistency.

Edit: I think I’ll get this IP. Looks promising.

Thanks. The recent migration is what tipped the scale to continue holding STV.

Instead of STV, I personally divided my capital between FEG and GAF (STV’s spot) - better diversification, I thought - and I plan to treat my investments in both, jointly, as a single Darwin. Don’t know if it’s better or not.

For a truly LONG term buy and hold portfolio, large number of Darwins that I believe will survive don’t cause over diversification problem (I don’t think so, at least).

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Those two fall under the “volatility” classification and I prefer not to have more than one of this category at this period in a 5 darwin portfolio. When I get to 8 or 9 darwins I will add another so I will consider your idea - GAF will have more migrated data as well.

Have you changed your portfolio lately according to your new research?

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You said STV is your volatility Darwin of choice? I was saying 50/50 to FEG/GAF instead of STV, and pretend they are a single Darwin. GAF is by finbou, I trust them in this, so I don’t think that migration date is an issue.

I haven’t made changes to my portfolio yet, though I’m seriously reconsidering many things. SKJ, TGB seem like acceptable scalpers too

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Have a look at my strategy #BUX if you’re looking for up-and-coming new pseudo-scalping strategies that have longish track record. My strategy has won Darwinia allocation the past two months (#21 in October and #38 in November) and I aim to keep up this performance.

D Score now at 78.8
My DARWIN is “on fire”, “trending”, “good scores” and "growth above 50%

Bought CWT, 1/4 of KVL, 1/4 of OOA, SYO, balanced the rest of portfolio as to keep monthly VAR within limit.

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Are you inspired by the course or by the BIG BOY ?

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ahah 25% course, 50% @CavaliereVerde, 25% big boy

KVL, CWT, SYO were on my radar for a long time. I cannot say the same for OOA but its OK for gold trading I guess - at least the backtest graph likes the appearance of OOA. Maybe I will buy ZXW too but …look at this curve it has made… the @CavaliereVerde in me screams “dont buy at ATH”

All in all I dont like that THA divergence is above .5%, ERQ at the moment will have enormous divergence unless the strategy changes a lot (and if it does then its not really ERQ, is it?) and the massive CBY drop today was off putting.

Anyway, I am aiming for KVL,SYO,ZXW,ERQ,CWT,UEI,THA,STV,OOA,NTI if all goes well.

edit: I am open to suggestions! (the FEG+GAF in place of STV is on my mind from @yhlasx)

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Yeah, the curve is scary, again, but unlike last time, the portfolio should be much stabler in nature now, maybe wait for a bit lower point, but not sure when it will be come. Because last time, pure hardcore trending, now more balanced.

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Sold 1/2 of STV and added 1/2 of FEG.

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I quite like MNW - probably sniper category? Doesn’t really correlate with anything in behavior too. Check it out.

Probably small allocation though

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I am watching MNW (as many others) but I wont buy it atm. Need more history (2 years) or a ”trusted” trader apart from good performance. It has some things I like (more than 50% of trades are on USDJPY+USDCAD etc) and some things I dont like EURUSD trading on the 2-5h timeframe like NTI,UEI,STV. In fact that was one reason I added FEG and reduced STV. I am trying to have as much diversification as I can - mainly in assets.

Still looking for a good scalp strategy. Main candidates showed increased divergence lately. UEI seems to have some scalp strategies in it as well so not in a hurry. Also, some buys have triggered on a small DD on KVL and in SYO . SYO is 100% bought. I am trying to find another darwin that trades stocks and also an oil one. Suggestions are welcomed. After that happens I guess we wait for @TheMarketBank to make a crypto darwin and we are set :wink:

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This MNW is very interesting but it is invested only since July so i suspect it is a “delayed darwinization” .
A native account shown to investors only after profit has been made, some kind of lite migration.

Confirmed, the trackrecord of earning starts on July, so there was no darwin before, it can be the result of a private selection among many accounts.
https://www.darwinex.com/username/mamjun

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