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A new start - my portfolio (real - Dec/2018) and my thoughts

Yes. Here, I admit that it’s as (if not more) important to get to know the trader behind, about his background, tactics (about), mindset, etc
Although, I’m not sure it will be sufficient when it happens over the internet only. Just knowing that the trader is gueninely trying its best with dedication cannot give you the necessary confidence that he nails down an edge. There are just way too many ways to practice trading plus too many paramaters that can be approximated or go off track. Rendering an illusion of competency can easily be achieved. I think even more so online. I’d be entitled to trust close friends only (after lenghty exchanges over time), or maybe after an extensive talk with the person IRL (if I were to understand his views from what I know or have practiced myself at trading, which is specific). That’s why I think that the traders-investors in-person meetings of Battlestation are way closer to be the real deal when it comes down to final selection.

An illusion of competence like the one created by @KlondikeFX or @JJENSLOPFAM is very complicated to setup… :smiley: :smiley:
Much more complicated than creating a fake trackrecord with 1000% return :smiling_imp:

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Yes, if there’s backed-up evidence obtained from the person (I think you met Klondike ?). I have talked more personally with Klondike and would be keen to recommend NTI as number 1 default choice (also admitting knowing in depth too few other Darwins haha, too big of a panel). I did not with JJENSLOPFAM and so I’m not particularly confident. Can’t comment from just the data. That’s the point. Measures without interpretation can be either pointless or even misleading sometimes

You are wrong, I met only @ignacio but he is not a trader.:smile_cat:

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Btw, those 1000% returns are mostly due to compounding (meaning not particularly extraordinary). A slight variation of avg performance, compounded, has an exponential effect. Some short term track records extended virtually into the futur could be about as eye catching. I guess the investors lack some imagination (projection after selection) :wink:

2019-08-01%2023_21_09-Darwinex_%20Beyond%20Broking%20-%20The%20Independent%20Trader%20Exchange

hmm… picked the bottom? :upside_down_face:

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Actually, I agree with you and @EvidenceAlpha on this point. What you see often, especially in the Forex industry are people that are so super confident in their abilities that you might get the impression they are absolute masters at their profession. If you have a little experience yourself you will quickly realize that this is only a facade in order to get newbies to buy their products, signals etc.

Usually, once they are facing a couple of critical questions they will just go over those or get even more arrogant. As a rule of thumb if someone acts like he has seen it all or knows it all. RUN! :running_man:

This goes hand in hand with the unrealistic expectations many novice traders have. The Forex market is already super-efficient and edges are tiny currently and they are getting smaller every month, IMO. Aiming for returns in the 50% range yearly is a recipe for disaster as with this potential gain comes huge risk. Most likely you will just pay the “guru” his share for the “service” and in the coming months, your account will be blown.

I am not arrogant enough to believe the edge I have found with my strategy will last forever. It’s a tough business and for most, a well balanced ETF Portfolio is probably the better choice.

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I disagree only on this point.
Even with the best balancing possible everything that is based on being long on stocks is strongly correlated and doomed to suffer a lot during a bear phase.
A portfolio o 10+ darwins could be much better but it is very difficult to find them.

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Don’t cut off the important parts of my post :sweat_smile:

I said:

I totally agree that potentially a portfolio of Darwins should be superior, however, I have yet to see someone that successfully built that kind of portfolio. So it’s most likely super tough and not advisable for most people. Also, there are ETFs on bunds, commodities, REITs, etc. so we wouldn’t be long stocks only :slight_smile:

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YOU ARE RIGHT ! :smiley:

I reformulate…

To make money with stocks you have to be an expert about stocks.
To make money with bonds you have to be an expert, there are pitfalls also here and books written to do this correctly.
The same for crypto lending… the same for crypto arbitrage…
For darwins it is the same: to make money you have to be an expert, there are many pitfalls.
Darwins are more difficult than bonds or stocks but it can be more rewarding.

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we can agree on that :slight_smile:

However, I would say it’s actually a LOT easier to build a reasonably well-balanced portfolio of ETFs in comparison to creating a profitable portfolio of Darwins. I have seen a lot of people (including myself) doing the former and not a single one doing the later.
But we are only at the beginning of the Darwinex journey so hopefully, someday it will be possible. :+1:

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I am interested in your opinion in this as well. I am using a simple portfolio of 2 ETFs 1)SPDR MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF, 50%, 2)Xtrackers Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1C,50% but any suggestions would be appreciated. There is a lot of info regarding a US investor but building an ETF portfolio as a european is a whole different story…

yeah, it’s a little cumbersome for European residents because of new regulatory constraints you can’t trade US-based ETFs without a KID :roll_eyes:

So you either get yourself a professional account or you need to look for European counterparts. My ETF portfolio mainly consists of the following positions. The weights are rebalanced monthly depending on volatility and performance. Sorry I won’t provide more detailed information than this. If you are looking for specific ETFs mostly go for the cheapest ones :wink:

Total Stock Market US
Stocks Emerging Markets
Stocks Developed
Bonds Emerging Markets
US Treasury
Real Estate (REI)
Commodities
Gold

Maybe this helps already.

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No bitcoin interest I take :smiley:

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thinking of it actually :thinking: … I’ll probably stay on the sidelines for a little longer though

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Just wondering… is it possible to manually change the “regular” tag next to the username in the forum?

If yes, I would like to apply for the “bottom seller” tag for my LSC decision to sell almost exactly at the lowest point

(the first 3 dots are partial buys and the last is the sell. LSC up 12,55% from that moment)

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It is not your fault, it is impossible to guess darwins.
My darwins run on a 100% mechanical ruleset so they have to be considered a transformation of the market, I am not trying to streighten them with averaging down to be more pleasant.
They behave like the market so they are hard to endure, it is the price to pay to acheive robustness.

Having said that , LSC is not investable so you were right to sell it.

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Bought a part of ULI.

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Ah, but you don’t know it is the bottom yet. The market can be very cruel, s**** on you, and then rubs your nose in it!

I had a similar experience with OLE. Bought it all the way down, sold as it went through 0 overall return, then it bounced immediately, but it has since fallen further.

Contemplating a new portfolio selection method.

  1. Randomly select a list of Darwins.
  2. Attach said list to a dartboard
  3. Filter list by throwing darts.
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Bought some more ERQ on this deep. Lets see.

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