OK here’s my filter to start:
- Risk Stability Score: 7.5 - Max.
- Experience Score: 10 - Max.
- Performance Score: 7.5 - 10
- Drawdown Last 2 Years: -50 - 0
- Days in Darwinex Current: 730 - Max.
- Return Last 2 Years: 40 - Max.
I’m not worried about 20%+ DD in a vacuum, as long as a large DD doesn’t appear in a single excursion or in a short period of time. I’m expecting 10% VAR Darwins to regularly give me ~20%+ DD. In fact, I’m suspicious if they don’t. I want to see some DD and see how the trader reacts to it.
I will also look manually at RS, LA, drawdown etc.
OK I only get 6 Darwins to choose from! I’m also including SUG automatically because I expect myself to easily beat the filters based on other data which I trust.
GRI #1 $ 22,058.12 19 3y 7m 130.44 % -22.99 % 59.99 230.44
While I don’t mind low LA (it could just mean a wide stop and short TP), a single -14% excursion is a little much to me. If this trader could prove the excursion peak happened say 30 days+ after the position was opened (so I know it happened over time) OR can prove it was hedged by a positive position, I’d include it. Otherwise I can’t see how a reasonable 10% monthly VAR product can have a single position that reached -14% with a probable holding time of less than one day.
SHC #2 $ 853.19 3 4y 3m 86.36 % -36.87 % 45.32 186.36
Same here, a couple of large negative excursions.
TDD #3 $ 162,583.38 37 2y 78.53 % -17.63 % 73.98 178.53
I cannot find any faults and this trader happens to have even more Darwinia allocation than me. Pf kinda not that great but I think the monkeys may be cheating plus the 12p doesn’t even go back 1 full year.
BMC #4 $ 42,341.42 20 3y 6m 64.66 % -38.65 % 76.43 164.66
Regardless of the extended stagnation periods, this one still fits.
KPO #5 $ 0.00 0 5y 7m 61.63 % -38.38 % 35.15 161.63
Too large negative excursions on single positions again.
SKN #6|$ 9,143.70|12|2y 1m|55.23 %|-16.87 %|70.26|155.23
I’m going to pass, it hasn’t been published for very long and also not much of traders money is involved.
So now I will await some suggestions, discussions and criticisms of my logic and then maybe look at correlation of SUG, BMC, TDD to make a final decision.