Here we are again! A new max this week.
A small note: I Made a mistake opening a very small position in Sp500 lasted 1 minute (I also trade index in others accounts) … so now BSL is not 100% EurUsd but it is not a change of heart. BTW I closed it with profit.
Here we are again! A new max this week.
The last months with BSL have been up and downs, something different from the past. I had already hinted why this is happening (I’m focusing more in long term trades than before) but I want to share more information with those who are already invested or are interested in BSL.
I’ve always looked at macro ideas for trading, using a fundamental outlook besides a “technical” prospective: currently I have reason to think that the US dollar is overvalued against Euro and that 1.20-1.25 can be a long term target. So, with some minor exceptions, I’m taking only LONG position in EURUSD and I’m traying to hold this position at least to 1.15 in the near term. Make no mistake, I’m no anchored to this idea, if I will have evidence that it’s better to close before or after I will.
For now this “prejudice” is not paying out: on the opposite we (we= me and my investors!) are paying huge swap costs… BUT despite those costs and a EurUsd that is very close to lows not seen in two and more years, BSL is still well positioned to take advantage of a strong rebound (in other terms my short trading decisions are paying for swaps and something more) … Darwinex is giving BSL a low MC score, and this is true as BSL is following EurUsd movements but I’m wondering if swaps cost are considered …
To be clear, I’m trying to mantain a long position but in the meantime been able to trade short term range.
Also, just two days ago I closed all the long position at 1.12200 (plus added a small short position closed too much early) and reopened them yesterday (from 1.11850 to 1.11560) … I think that this way of trading will get BSL again on a new high and I think much higher than before.
Tomorrow is a big day: ECB is coming and a lot of dowishness is expected. Don’t know what to expect really, but either way I will continue to trade long EurUsd… I think that a recession is most likely in the US (there are many signals of that…) and when the FED will eventually catch up, USD will go down very fast.
As always, feel free to ask… and invest safe invest for long term!
Fed didn’t play out well for our long position. I think that they are being too slow to act (cut rates) and this also because stocks are too high… so I’m thinking that this is what they want.
I’m confident that when macro data will come worse than expected (just look at today print of Chicago PMI at 44.4 huge miss from 51.7 expected) the expectation for more cuts will this time boost EurUsd.
In the meantime I will as always trade to compensate swap and market drop, traying to maintan a long stance. Will keep this post updated.
Hello Friend, I have an opinion similar to you regarding the eurodolar, I am in a buying position, because I think we will see that 1.12 again. Let’s wait for more updates.
The main problem now with euro$ is that swap is very high… from 01.04.2019 swap has been 10% of the underlying account! So to keep a long position is expensive if timing is not accurate.
Nonetheless I’m keeping it because I’m confident that downside risk are limited instead upside potential is huge (below it’s possibile 1.095-1.085 above 1.15-1.20) and just like today I use intraday trading for paying back swap and something more.
If friend, having difference in interest rates the cost of the Swap is very high, you could do some weekly operations to pay for that Swap, as you say.
The week ended with Euro$ bouncing off the low and almost near PRE-FOMC levels: after FOMC macro data were not so good for US and then President Trump surprised everyone with new tariff against China (not good for economy so more space for rate cut).
On monday there is the only big macro data for the week: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI…
And what about Huawei?
Words or reality?
Hello Friend how are you? Why is this decrease in% these smena?
Hi MrdarkSide, what do you mean with “smena” ?
I think he means “this week” :)
Another week in DD “mode” : EurUsd kept going lower for the week when “surprise - surprise” a more dowish Powel and an uber dowish Trump sent the dollar down and EurUsd closed the week well off the lows.
Var for BSL is going up despite I have not changed anything in my trading behavour… I made a few good trades to paying for swap and even something more… (closing long trades and reopening at a better price) …
I’m keeping my idea that EurUsd has a huge up potential compared to the potential downside: when this idea will materalize we will collect a very good harvest.
I’m grateful to all the investors who are keeping or even adding to their position in BSL.
So last week we had THE low in the 1.09xx zone… done a lot of trades to offset swap and gain something more.
BLS will remain long …