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CavaliereVerde's Demo Portfolio

Sorry,I logged out before seeing this post.I am a military guy.When I say you have to be ruthless,it probably doesn’t mean the same in civilian ears.I would drop half of your portfolio without blinking an eye.

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Hindsight removing is always easy, the problem is that the best of the past often is not the best for the future.
Also Warren Buffett could keep only Mastercard and Visa and drop everything to boost past return.
As he says, if we know the future there is no need for diversification.

I am here since 3 years, and 2 years ago there was XIN where now we have HFD , bad story for investors with superselected portfolios…

From Buffet:Diversification is for the people who don’t know what they are doing.
I repeat again my philosophy:you have to find darwin with healthy engine. Healthy engine is the future.Sure,there can be accidents,that is why you are better off with Portfolio with healthy engine darwins.
How do you think did I correctly see the future of BUX,ZVQ,FSK and probably CIS if he doesn’t mantain discipline,6 months in advance?

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I agree but you dont’ make money pointing the finger to bad traders, you need the good ones and often even the ones with a perfect and disciplined style turn to losers so it is better to stay a bit more diversified.

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As I stated a while ago,if you don’t know what is the solution,eliminate all bad answers and eventually you will find the solution.Portfolio made up of solutions is the insurance policy.Buffet started in Insurance business,so he knew a thing or two about building a rock solid Portfolio.

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Exact and his portfolio is composed by more than 10 stocks, he does not know the best for the future so he stays diversified.

If you remain with 3 darwins also you are filtering too much :wink:
Too much selection leads to overfitting.

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It has been years since I checked Buffet,but he had 64 Bil. at the time and probably has much more now.I wouldn’t call that sum invested in 10 stocks Diversification.He knows each of these 10 companies in and out,and he has them 10 for insurance purposes,not because he is not 100% sure their engine is healthy.

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If I had a real lot of money to invest I would keep only SYO LVS HFD YZZ ZXW from this portfolio but this is not the point.
While I am almost certain SCS is a bad darwin I cannot state the same for GFA THA ZVQ FSK .
Here I am testing a criterion (high AUM) , if the criterion works there is no need for discretionary removals, the criterion will do the job.

The criterion is healthy engine and the Edge( Equity curve).The operational word is Ruthless.Portfolio you need for insurance purposes.
Why on earth would you invest in a guy that you are not sure what he is doing?

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That is only temporary,the platform is still young.One year from now it will be much easier,if those native solid guys don’t give up before that.

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Why don’t you do it? It’s demo here! 50k or what the maximum is - is that not enough?
Is anyone of them resposible for your loss in August?

You cannot learn if you do always the same and the result stays useless.

I am testing this strategy/criterion since 5 months.
It is the minimum for a significant test, if I change every month I would neither test the criterion neither make money.
Top10aum is a clear rule, top10 -5 discretion removals is not so clear.

You might do hard with this because a lot of investors never learned to close a position in time.
And they only leave when they cannot stand the losses anymore.
I don‘t know how much influence that has on the total AuM, the highest increases in AuM in $ might be a better indicator.

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It is working so far, it is the first red month.
As long as it is working I let it work without mess.
This is the third strategy tested since one year with my demo as you can read.
If you dont’ wait at least 4 month there is just noise.
First 2 strategies wer bullshit so I changed.
This works and it is very simple.
Top10, monthly update/rotation.

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30 September 2019

Return
April 2019 : -0.92%
May 2019 : +0.72%
June 2019 : +1.72%
July 2019 : +1.2%
August 2019: -1.88%
September 2019: +1.92%

Sold ZXW
Bought JIR

October:
SYO LVS YZZ HFD THA
JIR GFA FSK ZVQ SCS

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why buy JIR, looks like he stopped trading

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I dont’ like it but I just execute a simple rule:
top10 aum updated once per month.
BTW he has 10k in the trading account and attracted one million in one quarter.

It was idiot 3 years ago.
After 3 years “most investors” is the only default filter that could work as a portfolio.
Crowd is evolving faster than DScore and investable attributes.

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Maybe you should think about a minimum number of investors, I cannot call 6 investors on JIR “crowd”.

JIR is strange, if you look to the underlying strategy you will notice that he is active.
BTW if it is flat it is not dangerous and neither a loser.
Maybe those 6 are friends that know things that we don’t know.

This is an AUM portfolio, if it works it means also a most investors portfolio would work.

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