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CavaliereVerde's live portfolio - Selected

Today 04/11/2019 I started a new portfolio based on Darwinia stacked allocation.

Next update on performance will be on 01/01/2020 and then I will share a performance update every quarter.

The portfolio is running leveraged on real money.

Edit 30/11/2019 see below
CavaliereVerde's live portfolio - Selected

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Congratulations @CavaliereVerde for your transparency, objectivity, brainstorming and proactivity in this community.

It should not be used this open and clear brainstorming and research, to try to take advantage in the discussions. I consider that it is not fair.

I am sure that there are a lot of silent readers that are very grateful for all the work that you are doing here, and I say work, because it should be considered as a job. I don’t understand this community without you moving people everyday.

In relation with your new portfolio, I would like that somebody open another portfolio with the current best darwins with low Ex and less than 40 dscore, that don’t let to access to darwinia today, and letting compare both portfolios in the medium-long term.

It would be interesting to discuss with these facts.

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jajajaja…I tried to open one portfolio, but the transparent man one closed it, but thank you, Cavaliery

After some more thinking I concluded that an “allocation” portfolio would not be profitable.
Allocation is interesting, much better than DScore or just picking the winners but in my opinion it is not enough, it is too concentrated on the fist positions and so it is likely for a lucky darwin to enter the portfolio.

Just a couple of lucky darwins that stop working after being allocated and the portfolio would lose its edge.
It probably would work if the distribution of the prizes would be 150k to 50k and not 300k to 25k like now, but Darwinia has been designed to create hype not portfolios… :wink:

So I am converting this to a selected portfolio composed by 7 darwins with a a very long trackrecord.

This is the backtest, 3 years with an annualized return of 13% unleveraged.
I will run it leveraged hoping for a 26%.
DD and stagnation are significant so I hope it is not an overfit of the past.
Hoping to be on the best (most robust) ones and not on the luckiest ones.

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As you can read above the annualized return, backtested on 3 years of native trackrecord :wink: is 13%
with 8 darwins I have 12.5% allocation per darwin so I can endure losing years like 2019 on NTI and also a quasi blackswan of -35%.

My actual expectation is that darwins don’t make money every year but a portfolio should make money every year.

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But still,you must have a red line somewhere in terms of DD.You have some criteria to eject somebody and replace him with somebody who has risen through the ranks?Or you intend to simply add newcomers as Quality rises and make your Portfolio wider and more robust with years passed?

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I will sell the darwin if I dont’ trust the trader anymore.
I was experimenting exit rules with the Wide portfolio but they cause only to buy high and sell low forever.
It is like dividend aristocrats investing, in true investing there are no stoplosses.
I could sell because of very high divergence, or inactivity or huge withdrawals, but they are guys that can answer to my questions. :wink:
These 8 darwins are provided by traders I am sure they are better than me.
If neither they make money it is very likely that the market is efficient and we are only lucky dreamers.

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The result for January is +6% (leveraged) but the portfolio is still incomplete.
Being a compact portfolio I am waiting for good entres and 2 darwins are still missing.

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I found 8 darwins with 3 years native trackrecord that IMHO are honest and profitable.
It took me 3 years.
The portfolio is still young but results are very promising.

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This is certainly not very encouraging for most of us investors here. It took you 3 years of intense effort to find just a few ‘good’ Darwins and develop a small hopefully profitable portfollio. It’s no wonder that so many of us (I think) have not been very successful.

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28-02-2020

Darwins: 8
Leverage: 2
VAR : 7.95

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These forums, especially posts by @CavaliereVerde could significantly shorten that learning curve.

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I do hope that you are correct. There is no doubt that he is incredibly helpful here! :slight_smile: Unfortunately at this point though we can’t be at all certain that his recent approach will be successful. His portfollio has only been running for 3 months which is very early for me to draw conclusions. Should we apply his 3 year rule that he uses for Darwins to be certain that it’s not “luck”? If not, how long to develop a lot of confidence?

On the other hand I really hope that he is on to something. He deserves it! And it would be nice for many of us to know that it can be done.

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3 months are nothing clearly but one year for a diversified portfolio (5+ darwins) is significant as 2 or 3 years for a single darwin.
For a portfolio is much more unlikely to be lucky and the volatility is much lower.

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I am glad that you are on profitable path,if our discussions about portfolio building had any hand in that,it would be beneficial to gather them in this thread for newcomers to see.
After they give you your Moderators powers back of course.

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That is the price of young investment platform.Early adopters pay the price.
2020 is certainly not the beginning,but hopefully it is the end of beginning.

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That is the precise point!
I think some users think that we are here to bash traders or that we wish other traders to fail.
The goal of our discussions is to show to investors potential pitfalls and many wrong ways to build return because we have many years of experience in this world.

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https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/VSA.4.19

The importance of waiting for a complete picture, a former short Grail is now an investable darwin with a realistic DD.

02-04-2020

Darwins: 9
Leverage: 2
VAR: 8.32%

2 Likes