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CavaliereVerde's live portfolio

Not a “shitload” but more than 3 and enough to build a diversified portfolio. :wink:

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I have found something for you.It is documented and I hope it puts this argument to rest.As I said,big players(mega banks-primary dealers- liqudity providers) are actively fighting back against algo hedge funds with counter-algos to create as much Chaos as possible.Small algo traders are collateral victims in this gigantic fight for Billions.
Barclays: https://portal.barclayhedge.com/cgi-bin/indices/displayHfIndex.cgi?indexCat=Barclay-CTA-Indices&indexName=MPI-Barclay-Elite-Systematic-Traders-Index

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Yes I know that index and there are many other indexes on Barclayhedge and it is difficult to draw a conclusion from those numbers.
The only conclusion I can draw is that trading in general delivers much lower returns than the believers we have on social dreaming sites.

I prefer to use this as benchmark:
https://ctaperformance.com/
There are systematic and non systematic CTAs , annualized performance is quite the same.
It is a race of patience where the longest trackrecords attract most money.

The other part of our argument was about size.Size matters and that’s why I think Darwinex idea will ultimately strike Gold.
Smaller ,nimble guys will be only guys who will make killing in this market environment.The link is 8 years old and from institutional world,but it shows that those guys are not stupid and knew already in 2011 what is solution for diminishing returns.Their only problem is they have many Billions to invest and can’t find enough young Traders with skill and trackrecords.That guy in video invests billions of his money plus they are servicing HighNetWorth clients and other Institutionals.


Darwinex will hopefully attract bunch of traders who will trade at 30-60% a Year with small Capacity,but collectively they will manage decent amount of AuM.

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I would be very happy but I dont’ think such guys exist.
High return trackrecords are either short or migrated, so is it edge or hindsight luck?

I agree that small capcity trading can deliver more return than high capacity, something like 15% vs 10%.
If I find 20 darwins that deliver a robust 15% annual I will be superhappy to leverage it to 30% :sunglasses:

The only “young trader” delivering more than 30% annualized is this:

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exactly what I have found with my manual strategy too.
You must first have a good entry.
Then you must be willing to use TIME on your side too, to avoid all the spikes and gyrations which are used as evasive tactics by the bigger hands.

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@CavaliereVerde Simons retired in late 2009.
The firm bought out the last investor in the Medallion fund in 2005 and the investor community has not seen its returns since then.
They were probably one of the main reasons why Big Boys have completely changed the game since 2009/2010 and started using Algos and University guys to defend themselves from Simons,TwoSigma…Simons knew that the window of opportunity has closed and went to the beach.Than came HFTs and that is closed now as well.We are finally back to human traders.
Here at Darwinex,after reading a lot of older threads,things started to take off with algo traders,it seems.But that proved to be unsustainable.I am talking about guys who had big profits for a year and than music stopped.Than there was also scalping fade,night or news,but that leads nowhere.And thirdly,now there are popping up proper discretionary traders.The only question is if they can keep discipline,those who already have some AuM,or patience,those who are neglected because of low Ex/D-Score or Migrated crap.
You will have first trader with annualized 30% on 3-year trackrecord in HFD even if he doesn’t earn a single % from now on.And he is no genius.I am watching his raw trading on some other platform that I am more familiar with and I don’t see something out of this world.CIS is much sharper trader,last 6 months.Others will follow.If you want to know what really crazy things these gifted guys are capable,I will give you an example of what a Hungarian guy did on that platform.Out of my memory,he traded only one currency pair with average leverage 6,yearly DD 16% and yearly profit 125-135%. Basically he was trading with VaR10% or less,so it would be the same or even better on Darwinex.And he had investors AuM on that account during that period.Later that guy disappeared.

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Her we have the returns til 2016, Simons retired but he is still an advisor.
You instist on that stuff about big boys and 2010 but it is just you opinion.

One year of big returns is just luck, both for algo and discretionary traders.
The longest manual trackrecords are ULI an UYZ .
HFD CIS SKI are very promising but they lack 2 years native or 3 years total.

I never found a public trackrecord with high return for many years and I am monitoring etoro autotrade and darwinex .

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Read again last sentence of my previous post.

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Ok but but a story can’t be my bechmark I want facts. :slight_smile:
My benchemark are CTAs , Dunn Winton Medallion …
Here my benchmark are ERQ NTI WFJ PLF
There are automated traders that lost their edge after 12-18 month but there are also many manual traders with the same fate.
I was investin RUG and JCW so being manual isnt’ a guarantee of robustness.

Believe me,I posted truth.I was watching it real time and I could unearth it from Archives and post it here but it would be unfair to Darwinex.
Problem with Discretionary traders is,as I posted earlier,Discipline.That is why I gave support today to CIS.I want that guy succeed and get this Darwinex idea growing.

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I believe you but how many years of trackrecord 1-2 ? Can be luck…
Exact the problem with manual traders is than they tend to self-delusion, even if they are honest they dont’ know the behaviour of their strategy on many market conditions, they only know that it is going wery well with the present condition, often they are overfitted to present, when they face a serious DD they give up.

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When I started studying Darwinex at the beginning of 2015 this was the “guru”
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/WCC.4.3/
Old school manual price action on daily timeframe, very nice! :slight_smile:

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Yes,up to January 2015 it looked really nice.

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In my opinion there is nothing bad to link trackrecords from other sites, AlpariPAMM has already been linked, also myfxbook , Zulu or mql5.com .
Darwinex is the best but it is relatively young, we need a larger sample of traders to understand what can or cannot be acheived from the market.
Our goal here is not to advertise but to discuss about investable or not investable traders.

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OK,since that is not my stuff and to avoid any trouble,I will post screenshots to analyze his trading method.

Here is whole Equity curve.He actively day-traded for 16 months and then stopped and only sporadically traded for 5 months and closed account.

His AuM,1mil.$ at the top.


He reached top 138% on Daily closing basis and stopped actively trading at 101%,which was his normal DD range 10-16% during rise.During his first month he had similar DD for example.Why he stopped I don’t know.

Next ,his Daily chart with Leverage above and Return below.Mostly he closed his trades the same day or next day.Leverage shows that nicely.


Hourly charts,to zoom in that Daily chart and see individual trades:



You can see remarkable Discipline in terms of Loss Aversion and solid Timing.This trader didn’t add to losing trades,but took loss and frequently reversed position and got his loss back.That is telling me he was very good Price Action trader and used many times his well placed Stop-loss as strong signal to follow the market in the opposite direction.Many traders start adding trades and Leverage in such moments and that is how troubles start.

There was one big spike in Leverage in his first 3 months and people later asked him what was that.He said it was a mistake and as soon as he noticed it he closed his exposure.Here is Hourly chart of that incident and I tend to believe him,Return chart shows nothing dramatic during that time,considering high leverage.

All in all,very boring trading.No drama,no big wins,no big losses,no overtrading,no games with leverage,Loss Aversion,no big trends.DD was constantly contained in 10-16% from beginning to the end.He traded only Euro all the time.
In terms of Risk,he was Master of the game.In terms of profit he was showing positive Loss Aversion by cutting his winners short.Probably he could get even more Profits.
Enjoy!

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His edge lasted for about 1 years, than DD came and the trader gave up, has been seen many times also here.
Return was high because risk profile was higher, probably something like var 20%.
After 2 months of DD he reduced the risk and after another quarter of stagnation he stopped.

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What DD?I just wrote he was fluctuating all the time in 10-16%DD.When he stopped actively trading he had 16% DD.That is nothing and he was used to it.
VaR20% with average leverage 6?Darwins here are trading in such time frame with 5-10 Leverage ,if I see correctly.20-30 trades a month?Is that too much?
CIS darwin has such profile last 5 months and if I see correctly,that darwin has almost 7 Leverage per position.HFD has average trades for 20 hours and average leverage 5!

His top was mid-July,he stopped actively trading mid-September.Chart is little misleading.There was no Quarter of stagnation,activity dropped abruptly for some reason in September.He had 2 short trades during the following month and that was all.Maybe some family problems or somebody died.

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If you don’t call it drawdown call it as you want, he was making a new high almost every month for one year til July 2015, than no new highs for 6 months and he closed the shop.
Just a temporary gift :slight_smile: , or maybe he wasn’t standing the pressure of an AUM.

There are a lot of simple strategies that work just for one year, you can find also guys with 200% on one year but never 30% for 3 consecutive years, the closest thing is ERQ .

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