2 months are passed since the survey for an official automated max divergence limit.
As far as I can tell, I can confirm we are working on the tool. In fact, I have seen some designs.
Hopefully not on paper
Just for the record! Of course not!
Any news about automatically opening or closing a Darwin for new investor?
No official news annoucement yet, sorry.
But it is definitely on it’s way! @Journalist
Best functionality as I remember the discussion: the trader could set a value between 0.5 negative divergence and the maximum value of negative divergence set by Darwinex.
I cannot remember exactly the set of numbers for the functionality.
But as far as I remember, it is pretty flexible. But, each thing in its time please
It would be good if the owner of Darwin VTJ could comment on the current drawdown i.e. whether it is within limits etc as from my simple perspective it seems to be and I am considering closing my investment unless I get some confidence that it will pull out of the extended DD.
I am particularity interested whether the trading strategy has changed, as the alteration in D-Score would suggest a change in approach, which I think its only fair to explain…
Also, interestingly, if you watch VTJ and THA, visually the curve seems very similar, despite their low correlation. Probably they benefit from similar market regimes so I’d just hold one or the other.
If you compare 6m of trackrecord the chart is completely different, a DD on the same weeks/months doesn’t mean nothing.
You can also compare durations, assets and excursions, the two strategies are completely different.
I know, I know… indeed, my “visual” comparison is not very accurate. It was just more a curious thing than anything
But I have to disagree about the sentence “a DD on the same weeks/months doesn’t mean nothing.” In some of the latest (spanish) radio interviews to Javier Colon in “Movimiento Trader” he talks about some darwins that needs lots of volatility to work. Without such volatility, they slowly will have a DD, smooth, not sharp, but a slow one. Until the volatility comes back again. All of those darwins will have similar long, steady and calm drawdowns in the same weeks/months.
He said that it is possible to recognize such moment in time, so you could have a portfolio of 10 darwins, taking advantage of that. It would be needed the API, because it is needed to analyze the underlying market, or DWF/DWC. He said that for example you could have those 10 darwins, and when you detect that all of them start to loose, and you are taking into account volatility, sell them. Then, in some weeks/months, buy them all again.
If you guys are able to listen spanish, I highly recommend such podcast, very informative to trading darwins:
Even better would be an explaination to a position with DLeverage 50 one week ago.
The recovery mode is visible also on Rs and Ra diagrams.
I think the risk manager has done a very good job here, DD was reduced and now the strategy is de-leveraged.
May be the DLeverage 50 was made to stabilize var around 10% at once? It was a trade with a 1min duration, very different than the average trades that @MCFD does.
But actually I don’t think that was the issue, because in an interview with him in the radio (http://capitalradio.es/79588-2/?doing_wp_cron=1538301221.2733440399169921875000 around 33:30min). He says that he changes things in the strategy “without breaking the trackrecord”. So for him that’s very important.
It would be great indeed if the trader say something about this.
IMO it just bad trading, call it recovery mode.
Interviews are interviews, they arent a way to communicate.
Using english should not be a problem when you are managing one million (even TWO millions at the beginning of 2018) .
To write to be disciplined is one thing, being disciplined during a frustrating drawdown is another.
I don’t know, that movement is so different than usual… I’m tempted to think that it is just a fat finger issue or something like that.
A technical issue is possible, in that case a explaination here or on the descrcription would be due.
At the end of 2017 VTJ had a quite high divergence and a quite low VAR.
To lower the divergence we had a meeting with Darwinex, that is already known but we repeat it for the one who arrives now.
We also dealt with the topic of VAR, Darwinex’s response was clear “Don’t worry about VAR”.
The profolio was better in real than in simulations, but we knew that at some point it was going to correct the upward trend.
When I entered DD the var was very low and the fall was multiplied.
The original count has a DD of -7.48 %.
The original account in the month of June had +0.06% but the darwin but the rest darwin -2.57%. (risk manager adjustment)
Now the portfolio has more validation and Five-fold decorrelation.
We have also increased the measures to control the divergence, does not mean that it will not go up or down because as everyone knows depends on the order book / liquidity etc… (market).
The day before adjusting the VaR, I was talking to Ignacio and he told me about the risk manager. The risk manager does not replicate trades with so much leverage.
I knew my TR was going to be ugly, but Darwin and his investors were protected.
I see complaints about the VTJ VAR and that according to what I read investors talk about the best thing to have a VAR of 10 so I wanted to raise it 10 and the key.
I knew very well that not all the trades were going to be replicated in the Darwin, so I went through the same thing in June as the original strategy that ended in positive and the Darwin in negative, because the risk manager acts.
Raising the var can be done in several ways one by lowering the equity thing that I was criticized in his time (is that if the afternoon does not risk his money me either) or raise the original placation, which I get criticized for now.
Either way implies a problem more added to the operation of the profolio, if there are few entries the var goes down and if there are many in var goes up, the market is not = every day.
There are days or weeks that you barely complete any operation, and others that go a lot in the same tick (news).
I believe that anything I do is going to be subject to criticism.
From now on I will regulate the var as I did last year by increasing or decreasing the equity of the account, that does not mean that I do not bet my money on VTJ, if I do but as an investor, so I control the value of the divergence in every afternoon.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
It seems that the mind behind VTJ has died some days ago. I’m in darwinex to make money, but this kind of news reminds me what is important in life. I shouldn’t forget that.
I copy below a communicate from their team (sorry, in Spanish).
Lamento profundamente comunicar que nuestro amigo y socio José Antonio (José EA), el que fuera el creador de la estrategia subyacente al darwin VTJ y capitán de nuestro equipo, ha fallecido hace unos días. Siempre le recordaremos como ejemplo de perseverancia y bondad.
Nuestro muy apreciado amigo, siempre te llevaremos en nuestro corazón.
Los que hemos tenido la suerte de trabajar a su lado estamos consternados por este golpe tan terrible e inesperado y, después de contemplar todas las posibilidades, consideramos que lo más conveniente es abandonar la gestión del portfolio. El nivel de dedicación que José Antonio aportaba al flujo de trabajo diario, hace imposible su reemplazo por la baja disponibilidad actual del resto de socios.
Muy pronto el darwin dejará de cotizar. Lo estamos coordinando con Darwinex. Sentimos de corazón que tenga que ser así.
Quedamos a vuestra entera disposición.