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DCD (ProjectMars2Live)

Hi all!
I wouldn’t normally post here, but since the reload I feel like the platform is a total mess and I personally think that it became harder to select strategies for portfolio.
So here is my account in myfxbook. I hope it will give some additional clarity.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/StHarmonTrader/projectmars2live/1689801/Hprw7uxQYCEWs4WnV8qv
Thanks.
Have a great day ahead!

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This is your DARWIN’s link if you ever need it:

https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/DCD.4.2

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Hello Andromedahydra, could you please write what do you consider we should improve? Otherwise it is impossible to help you and all the people that think the way you do.

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Hi all. I noticed that recently some of my watched accounts on myfxbook and my own accounts as of this morning have wrong equity curves and consequently wrong drawdown numbers. I contacted myfxbook support. They replied that the issue will be fixed next week, so ignore horrible numbers and curves in myfxbook for now.

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Hi,

Recently I have seen a big fall in this darwin. It is something that could be tolerable in normal situation, but what I appreciate is that the loss came from a bad risk management.

I am talking about AUDUSD deal, where you didn’t applied stops or you just add to losing position.

Because of that, I have sold your darwin and lost the confidence I had in you as a trader.

This from the Darwin

This from the strategy, all in the same asset

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You are absolutely right. I feel your frustration. And I lost a big chunk myself because I had 60k of my funds on this account. It went down to 55. AUD was my recent addition to the portfolio. And it turned out to be a bad one. What will I do? There is nothing else I can do but pick up the pieces and go from there. This incident has thrown me back and I am aware of the fact that to gain back investors will take a lot of time. But I still have plans to reduce loses for this month to about 7% and go back on track from next month earning solid steady profits. My goal is to achieve 5% average monthly gains.

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Hi @AndromedaHydra,

Your answer says a lot in your favor, but to be honest, I run a webpage with Yuri Rabassa called Darwinizate, where we analyze darwins to consider them as a possible investment, and we try to be really strict with the Darwins we consider to invest in.

Your Darwin was one of our choice, but looking at your late behaviour, we decided to end our investment on it.

Maybe in many months we will consider to invest on it again, and I am quite sure that you will overcome this drarwdown, which hasn’t been really important, but to me, the most important thing when trusting a manager, is to know he will do what it is supposed to do, meaning:

  • Doing a proper money management
  • Apply stops to avoid huge losses.

And at this moment, I lost the confidence in your capability to do so.

It is a pitty since I can see from your response that it could be an isolated mistake, but at these days, there are plenty of good darwins at darwinex, so we have alternatives and we decided to act without hesitation.

I wish you best luck, and consider this as something you have learn from, so it won’t be repeated in the future.

Clearly, it is not worth it!

Regards,

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Totally understandable and I appreciate your professional approach to investment.
Anyway, at this point may I ask you to keep subscription to this thread.
I will be posting updates here about situation on my account. I put together a dedicated facebook page as well but unfortunate as I was that bad trade occured, so I am not promoting that right now.
Considering that I removed AUD from my mix and also that it’s believed to be a fairly good strategy to jump in investment on forex on drawdowns I could say come back now but I prefer to wait and see how it goes because honestly it was stagnating the last 2 months. That was actually the reason I decided to add AUD to give it a little jolt but it turned against me. Until I am fully confident I won’t be promoting my account as before.
I will keep everybody posted on further developments and plans. Let it speak for itself.
Thanks and stay positive!

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Hi all!
So I guess now it is time to sum up the month. It wasn’t that bad. In the middle of the month I had a kick in a stomach by what was my own mistake. It cost me a maximum DD number of 15% which will stay with me forever like a burn. But, hey, you live you learn, right?
Below is a print screen of my statistics right after the big loss and the next picture is data as of now.

The number I was hoping for the end of this month was 7% of net loss, but it turned out to be even lower than that. I managed to go from -10% to -5.4%. I can say that despite the down that I had the system works and it will recover itself soon. That’s what makes me feel good.
I lost some of the investors but I want to say huge thank you to those who stayed. Maybe some of you simply weren’t following closely the situation and maybe some of you were just loyal. Anyway, I am grateful for your funds.
Here is another myfxbook link to my account. The previous one was private. This one has a number of parameters closed but I made it public so you can follow it. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/StHarmonTrader/projectmars2live/1689801.
From now on I think I will be in touch with you more often through this forum. See you all on the next update.
Peace.

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It’s good to see you around, @AndromedaHydra!

I am pasting your Darwinex widget so people can track your monthly returns:

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Hi @AndromedaHydra .
I am currently investing YZF and i noticed that now DCD and YZF are the same system.
Can you confirm that?
YZF complies to my filter and has a better DScore.
I am interested to increse the investment on your trading but I would like to know a bit more about it.

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Hi! Thank you for the message.
What you are saying is partly true.
YZF is trading only 1 currency pair at the moment and it has automatic risk, whereas DCD has 2 pairs at the moment and has manually adjusted risk setting. It became like so after a lot of time selecting and filtering diffeent pairs.
So I confirm, the system (main idea) behind those two accounts is the same, however they are not quite the same, otherwise they would show equal percentage gains/losses which they aren’t.
I feel that right now YZF is showing more stable progress than DCD however I am still in a long term process of selecting more pairs for DCD. This is the reason I am not promoting DCD very much at the moment, although I have more funds on it than in YZF.
I hope my answer clarified something for you. If not, please ask me more and I will be happy to reply.
And thank you indeed for selecting YZF for your portfolio. It’s an honor.
Cheers.

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Hi @AndromedaHydra
Despite a theoretical capacity of 500k DCD is showing a divergence of -0.76% .
I have a limit of -1% for my portfolio and I am happy with DCD .
I think you should investigate the issue with Darwinex.

Keep on with good trading! :wink:

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Hi.
Thank you for pointing it out. I don’t know really how can I investigate it. It is indeed too high considering low account balance and moderate investors’ capital. I think it has to do with execution at Darwinex, because all of the conditions remain the same. The strategy hasn’t changed.
Let us wait and see how it goes. I appreciate your interest in my account. Good to have die hard followers!!
All the best to you.
On my part I can say that the account is sailing safely on full auto. Trades are never left on weekends and account is turned off when I receive high volatility expectation alerts. So it should perform steadily.
Thanks again and have a great day ahead!

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It is 20 hours later now, and I see his divergence is at -0.68% now, so the divergence is quite ’’volatile’’.

I think all has to do with the expectancy of his system, at myfxbook I see it is 1.7 pips.

With an expectancy of ’’just’’ 1.7 pips, the slightest average slippage (in pips) will cause significant divergence (positive or negative), that would also explain the big ’’volatility’’ in divergance. 1 big slippage will have significant influnce on the divergence figure.

The above is just my theory, maybe Darwinex employees can help @AndromedaHydra further with this.

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Expectancy is different from average trade,it is just a different way to state performance.
Positive expectancy is like profict factor higher than 1.

Average trade of DCD is ~5 pips (3 hours duration)

For example my systems have an “expectancy” of 6 pips but the width of the trades is ~60 pips , sometimes I win 60 pips sometimes I lose 60 pips… (2 days duration)
Capacity depends on the distance from entry and exit.

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Hello CavaliereVerde,

I think I do not completely agree with you.

From AndromedaHydra’s myfxbook:

Trades: 796
Pips: 1338.0

That’s on average 1338.0 / 796 = 1.68 pips profit per trade. That’s in my opinion what expectancy is: the average expected profit (in pips or USD or whatever) per trade.

If AndromedaHydra makes 796 1.0 lot GBPUSD trades, he can expect to make:

796 * 16.8 USD = 13372.28 USD total profit.

If investors have 0.01 per trade negative slippage on average, they can expect to make:

796 * 16.7 USD = 13293.32 USD total profit.

That’s 78.96 USD less profit, which equals to 0.59% divergence (for that whole period of 796 trades) in this example.

You will understand that with the same average negative slippage of 0.01 pip, divergence would have been much lower if he had for example 6 pips expectancy.

You are right that the chance to have a higher expectancy in pips when you are trading higher timeframes and higher widths of trades, but it has not be to give always a higher expectancy.

For instance a (not so good) higher timeframe system can have an expected average profit of 1.68 pips per trade as well.

The same 0.01 silppage would have an equal influence on divergence, no matter if those average 1.68 pips were made on a high timeframe or by scalping.

Again, this is just my opinion. I think it’s an Interesting discussion.

In short. In your calculations you took pips earned and a number of trades. Profitabilitywise you can be right, but in terms of pips per trade you are wrong, because there are also negative trades that you took out of the equasion. Slippage on negative trades matters too.
So if you don’t simply subtract negative pips you will see higher average pips per trade.

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Hello AndromedaHydra,

No, in my opinion, that’s not true.

You have made 1338 pips in 796 trades.

1338 is the sum of all profitable pips minus the sum of all negative pips. (so negative trades are included)

796 is the total number of trades. (so negative trades are included)

We could discuss this for a long time, but my original point was that I expect your high divergence having to do with the “low” expectancy per trade.

I say “low”, because you are having a very nice trackrecord of course.

I think it would be best to ask Darwinex support about the divergence thing.

Kind regards.

@AndromedaHydra
DCD performance in 2018 is much better than in 2017, nice job!

Can you share some ideas about your improvements/corrections?

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