Hey Ignacio, thanks for staying with me here. Apologies for what’s ahead hehe:
Let’s zoom out. In my last post I (thought) understood the tools to look at past divergence (“backtest” + “investors’ tab divergence chart: Divergence in %”) so I was asking about a different thing: The “divergence-investors chart”.
Back to my initial question which hasn’t been answered.
The “Monthly divergence” is an estimation of the Future divergence for the next month (next 20 trading days?), correct? During the next 20 trading days, Darwinex estimates, THA will suffer an accumulated divergence of -0.41% for that period. Am I interpreting it correctly?
One way I am using this number is to have a rough calculation on the estimated future annual divergence: I would do -0.41%*12 (monthly estimated divergence * 12 = yearly estimated divergence)…
- QUESTION 3 (related to your last reply). This is what I understood so far: There are two ways to look at past real divergence for a Darwin, Backtest and “investors’ tab divergence chart named [Divergence in %]”. What I understand from your last reply is that, of these two tools, backtest is more reliable/accurate, correct?
The next findings are a bit confusing, may be a got something wrong, apologies if that’s the case. Since you implied one method being more reliable than the other, I wanted to see the differences:
A) Backtest: From 14thJan to 11thFeb shows THA had, as Divergence, the difference between 2.15% and 1.85%: -0.30% Divergence.
B) “investors’ tab divergence chart named [Divergence in %]”: From 14thJan to 11thFeb shows THA had a Divergence of -0.97%. More than 3 times more than the other method.
If I do the same comparison but on a period of a year (making sure I substract the performance fee, in the Back test method). The difference is much smaller but still significant:
A) Backtest method: -7.63%
Calculation: The difference in % between the backtest and THA’s performance is 10.18% (19.47%-9.29%), of which -2.5534% correspond to performance fees. Hence, the past divergence through this method would be the difference of both numbers: -7.63%
B) “investors’ tab divergence chart named [Divergence in %]”: -10.10%