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EOD - Hefoba

I would like to introduce my new Darwin - EOD -

The HeFoBa concept aims to make complicated trading simple and making
forex trading accessible to everyone, whether it be private individuals,
small businesses or large institutions. The HeFoBa methods are
continually developed from over 2 decades of experience in fundamental
and technical analysis. The current automated system is based on
advanced automatic trading developed and tested since 2005.

The Hefoba system is based on 15 years development of one fully automated Expert Advisor, and from January 2020 a machine learning filter was employed for further optimisation. Trades are taken continuously during all hours and days of the year. Manual control is maintained such that for anticipated, as well as in response to unforeseen, turbulent events the Expert Advisor stops trades or invokes a reduction in risk level

The EA trade different pairs:

To be clear I have skin in the game
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Feel free to ask questions and I will try to explain what you need to know.

Information about the system can be found here : http://hefoba.com/
Join our Discord Server or Contact us on Twitter

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We are working on the Open strategy:

Our Close strategy is good but we need to improve the Open some.

Let see when my first investor join the show :slight_smile:

I would like to welcome my first investor and hope we get a nice profit road together. Appreciate a lot you invest in me

I will soon post about what changed after machine learning algorithm was applied.

The system we run is one multi pair system. Here is which pairs we traded last 3 month
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CHF pairs are stopped for trading as SNB is “playing” with the pairs ( Rumors or true is not important we avoid risks )

Here you see the trading timezones we are most active at.

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We run on different brokers and analyse the returns per brokers.
We use one Master / Slave setup so we can tune trades we open.

After collect 2 years of live trades did we analyse which trades open on the slaves.

Before the machine learning was applied we had this equity curve increase

Then after the analyse we got

The funny and interesting part is that we got higher returns with less trades

I hope you see and understand what we did.

Short update from us:

After the recent moves on the market have the Machine Learning module adjust size of trades it will take from the master account.

Hi,

Here is the news during next week, where our system will reduce the risk.
NFP - Non-Farm Employment Change - on Friday and PMI numbers are the main one

Welcome to my new investors.

I know and understand investors want that the trader believe in his trading.
Just to show you that I believe in my system can I say my own money is more that the money invested in my Darwin.

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Hi @hekenberg,

I recommend you watch the following video for context around sample size and backtest validity :bulb:

Wish you all the best with your trading :handshake:

Hi,

Thank you for the Video. We know the problem with over-fitting. Our machine learning algo can not over-fitt by design. I can explain more in details if you want.
The goal of the ML algo is to avoid enter trades that can drag us in DD.

Over-fitting is one issue for sure that we all need to be careful of.

Here is the steps we apply before trade big money with one system. ( Time is our friend )

1-Backtest on 1-5 yrs data ( Just filter to find system that can be ok )
2-Trade “demo” / “Paper” during 6 month
3-Trade live on small account
4-Trade live with more money.
Step 4 is often 12 month after step 1.

We use Backtesting to find systems that may be ok. NOT to decide if you can trade live.

Our forward testing ( step 2 +3 ) are like this “take a walk 2-3 times a day for 3 months before you buy a dog. maybe you see not so funny walk so often”

During step 2 we see sometimes system is good on paper/backtesting but can’t be traded.

Wish you all best to!

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For us it is important that we are flat at least once a week. It is one goal we have. We also try to avoid be flat under weekends.
Last week did the market push some and we didn’t get flat over the weekend.
This morning we were flat.

Let see if we can get some good trades.

Enjoy your day and week

Happy to be part of the Trend club

Welcome to new investors coming from other platforms.

Hi,

Here is the news during next week, where our system will reduce the risk.
CAD rate will be the big one

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Hi,

Small update from us. ( I want to remind you that you can contact us on discord, twitter and of course here )

For us, it is important to turn flat once a week. 95% of the weeks are we flat once a week.
We are flat now.
Our system paused CAD trading yesterday as we have rate information today and closed USDCAD this morning. CAD trading will be enabled 2 hr after rate news.
Our system paused EUR trading today as we have rate information tomorrow. There are some Euro trades on the master that we may take but it depends on how the ML module act.

Hi,

Oh we have a busy week ! Here are some of the news we will keep and eye on.
FOMC and USD rat on Wednesday, GBP rate on Thursday.

Our trading is automatic but we also stop the trading of some pairs or reduce the risk during big event.

Have a nice Sunday !

This sounds like a very good and safe thing at first site. But I saw your trading and see you having relative big leveraged open positions sometimes.

What is in your plan if you have big open positions in a big floating loss, just before a big news event? Will you take the loss and get flat before the news?

And in case you took the loss, can we expect recovery attempts at higher leverage shortly after?

It is always good if your investors know in advance what to expect in such a case.

Hi,

If we have a big open position with big floating loss does the system manage the exit. The system have done it before. Since some months do we avoid big events. Something we didn’t do before.

We found that avoid getting into DD caused by know events is better than getting some good profits from the events.

Anytime can our investors ( from any broker ) contact and chat with us on our discord server : https://discord.gg/g8Hrh8Q
So if in DD would investors get information here and on the discord server. We think a good plan is important but also quick communication so investors can understand how we think and decide what they want todo.

Events like “911” or Japan tsunami are events that we can not predict but we can communicate how we think and also explain if the system acts as we plan.

Such events are also probably events where the most system will get into DD.

If we take one hit will we not increase our leverage or risk.
We will analyse why the hit happens and explain to investors.

I hope I answer your question and feel free to ask more questions.

Thanks, but you did not really answer my question, or maybe we did not understood each other well.

I did not mean that the system follows it’s normal algo to manage the exit. I meant: do you as a trader manually intervene and close out big positions which are in a big loss just before the big news event? In other words, do you get the EA off your chart and close out the trades manually and accept the big loss? (your low La gives me the impression you won’t, but maybe I’m wrong)

What exactly do you mean with that? Don’t you trade USD pairs at all untill next Wednesday? Don’t you trade GBP pairs at all untill next Thursday? That would be very safe indeed.

Your Var is 2,58%, but I see for instance a 13,1% peak at 05/06/2020.

In the case you will trade GBP pairs for instance on Monday (tomorrow). Supposed the D-Leverage on open GBP positions has risen to say 10 on Thursday and you’re still not out. Would you manually close the losing positions out just before the GBP Rate on Thursday? Or would you hold on to your high leveraged GBP positions (say D-Leverage 10), through the news event, and hope for the best?

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Hi,

Wanted to add my 2 cents to this answer as i am also invested in Hekenberg his system.

Ever since i got into contact with Hekenberg communications always have been very clear.
An open approach is taken in providing investors with information about the system. All these
every time come together with well motivated reasoning.

Also the communication via the discord server and other solutions for status of the system are very promising.

Concerning the raised questions by SteadyWins (fitting nickname to the subject :smile: ),
the answer would be that if you know your system and its numbers there should be no worries in case a DD is hit. DD is part of the whole plan(off course it’s not the goal) and sometimes it is inevitably. Therefor system should be able to recover in case such event takes place.

best regards

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Hi,

Since 2016 I do not act on my EA. We do supervise the trading but do not manual act on the trades.
Of course, is a special case occurs we will kick hard stop loss but very rare.

What we do when we “stop” trading in some pairs is that no new trades with these pairs will occur.

Like “USD” on Wednesday. From Tuesday will we not open new pairs with USD in it.
All open trades with USD will be handle by the EA but the EA will not open new trades with the pair when the EA closed the trade.

We try to be flat at least once a week. We are not sitting on long bad trades.

You wrote about GBP. GBP is in special case for us. Brexit talks going on so we avoid GBP pairs right now.

Chf is also in special case mode.

Right now we have one sell on AUDUSD with 0.02 lotsize on my 24K account
So right now no risk.

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Thanks, that’s a clear answer to my question.

I think, with your system / timeframe, it’s a reasonable explanation of stopping trading / reducing risk / avoiding news events.

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