I wish I could like this sentence 10 times!
I feel like the past two weeks deserves an update by itself, as Novembers profits have been completely wiped out in less than half the time.
It pains me to see that it got some traction in terms of real investors numbers, just as luck has turned for the worst for the first time in a few months.
I can assure that I have changed nothing about the process this month and this is just a series of less fortunate coin flips, paired with the feared increase in volatility, albeit slightly. I’m somewhat frustrated that I’m having the worst 2-week streak (in a combined ~30 months of backtest/live performance), right after it is getting some attention.
It’s been particularly unfortunate in missing the major part of December 11th rally and getting stopped on the December 6th decline on the lowest tick of the day, (both due to adjusted closing rules).
I’m confident that the edge is still there, so I welcome people that like to buy dips on DARWINS to pay extra attention to this one as to when it’s stroke of luck returns.
You were honest to warn investors about 2 lucky months.
Then they are free to dream and buy high.
Months and quarters depends on luck, as investor I look for years .
Your only fault is that you published your darwin at ATH .
Hello all and happy new year!
FLI has had its worst month in 16 months of live operation ( and 17 months of backtesting). It made 22 trades of which 9 were wins and 13 were losses (41% hit rate). Given an overall hit rate of 55%, there is a 13% probability to get a hit rate of 9/22 or less in any single month.
Unfortunately, the average loss was over twice the size of the average win and to add insult to injury, the strategy closed out three trades right before the anticipated move. This unfortunate combination of circumstances eventually led to a loss of 15.47% for December.
It does not seem as though anything has structurally changed in the data leading me to believe my system is flawed, it is simply the cruel reality of small sample sizes.
As for the coming month, I will let the system do its thing and hope that January offers more fortunate results.
To a new year, with great results!