Hello investors and traders, I am a discrecionary trader, my decision process is based on my analysis on the market. My main focus is on volume and price momentum. I especially in the Crude Oil asset.
The decision to chose just one asset comes from my origins three years ago, when i was discovering the stock markets. Like most of us I used to trade with Elliot and Fibonacci tools and usually take trades on all pairs of forex, commodities and some index…
I am sure that quant traders can find edge in all of this Data, but as discrecionary trader its just imposible in my opinion. Anyway I thought that using those tools, i was having a good blueprint of the market,(counting some waves and tracing expansions and retracements).
Time show me how wrong I was.
In my experience, the markets are not governed for one pattern (like the famous 12345abc), there are infinite patterns of price movement as many as diferent and changing interests exist. I prefer to adapt to the price rather than face it with a preconceived image, this is not a guess game.
My price analisys starts from a common search of tendencies and ranges, after that i use volume profile to decect where is the most negotiated prices and continues searching some possible kind of weakness or strength pattern in the price.
Let me show you an example;
Lately I am following a 5,10,15 years seassonality chart (that include so many events), to get better probabilities, in this chart we can see what the prices do in the last 15 years of the Marchs, This is data, facts, I think that is a nice reference to make the analysis realistic and useful.
Comparing this price movements to the current chart of Crude Oil that was actually in the first week of april and not in the last of march in speculative terms. We can say that the price is accelerated compared to the last years, it seems normal,if we take a look to the SP500 that recover a large part of the Q4 correction in a frenetic rally.
Some index have strong correlation with the crude oil. This commodite is the gasoline (forgive the redundancy) of the economy; do not forget that the products we have in our homes, all includes this component.
Continuing with the explanation, here we have a CL chart, from Ninjatrader Plaform.
Last week of march, we are searching a bullish structure.
And i found something, in the middle of the week:
We see how the prices have a new interest in the lows of this range, coming up from a strong uptrend, here it our oportunity to trade.
I take the trade carrefully waiting for the trend line breaks, and fix the take profit, in the next cumulative level in the top of the structure.
This is just a little example of my work.
Finaly I want to say that I am working on my trading habilities. I never take this for grantes. The curve of my darwin is always getting better, for this reasson, my goal this year is to achieve at least 40% of profitability with a good risk management.
DrawDown and stagnation of the Darwin GQC. Pick from the SAD software by the manager of Darwin ONE.
Equity and Balance curves of underlying strategy.
DrawDown underlying strategy.
Without forgetting I will try to reduce softly the underlying VaR, (55% currenly) to 20%. I’m seeing that it’s something that investors are very aware of and it could be something bad for the reputation of my darwin.
I want to do more topics following the Darwin growth in the near future.
Thank you for the read, It is a pleasure to share with you, all comments are well received.
Follow me on twitter: @TradingGreen_