GENERAL BALANCE 2018
So guys, another year is passed, here a tabla resumen regarding last performance of GTD on Markets during the 2018.
- Replication of 2018 is ended with a +1.3%.
The year of course could be ended in positive or in a more evident negative way, we all know what happened during the course of those months and in particular way to near all Trend Strategies, by the way the fact that during unfavorable moments for Trends, Reverse occasions were taked less and failed in most cases to cover all losses of first components left us with many questions to which we have obviously placed a through analysis.
As you probably know, during final part of this year, coinciding on some pairs with the beginning of second semester, some of major pairs were in a really narrow range with an alternation of movements that have always left to presage an explosion of movement which however has never arrived to the end. Grey areas, from which market behaves choppy and totally lack of power/direction, disadvantaged an array of components which desire greater extensions or continuity of movements while it favors a different type of portfolio that aims more in a general way on contrarian occasions.
Some Questions have to be answered on this general period, from ours side, also to let understand people that have less knowledge about markets, strategies, algorithmic components something more.
All reversal strategies had profit during this period?
Absolutely no, not all reversal and contrarian strategies have been able to profit from this situation, this is not an hint to think that there are best reversal and worst reversals on markets, but it highlights that during this period some alignments were favorites and other ones disadvantaged.
Are some alignments more favorites in these condition despite others?
Yes, in particular way some alignment behaved better during this period, this depends on Loss Aversion, Trade-Length, TP-SL formulation, shorter looks on indicators that tends to cut more with less definition for movements etc...
Are some strategies losing the same because they are equal or like the same type of market?
Absolutely no, there are cases in which during those periods different components lose, but it's much more related on a similar alignment of the strategy that on the type of movements they looks: if markets tends to explode in few hours in a direction and then goes in other direction or goes in a flat range, news trading on trends, trend followers, volatility spotters, reversals with shorter stops, reversal with a particular loss aversion, goes all in SL, this must not upset minds of people.
Is this period an hint to change components of a Portfolio?
Absolutely no, periods of market during its cycles are imbued of those moments that give difficulties to some type of alignment/strategies, phases are alternated during years, have their present moments and so we understand their ends and call it past moments after their ends, but the fact that strategies developed in a certain way tend to do H.W.M on the long run is not because at the first difficulty during a quarter/semester/year we change the all.
Is this an occasion to cut off Trend Strategies?
Impossible guys, that's not the right behavior, those phases are cyclical and even if this low phase of some strategies is conceding with other components of some portfolios, is not possible to shut off an array of strategies. Guys, every part of the past had it's present, and is called past because it's gone, but had its present condition that we called present because had lived in that moment, but past is full of market condition that have in what way procured problems to various components of different nature, it's market and nothing more, today is for something, tomorrow for another cause.
Is this period an hint to search other way to have profit?
We are engaged every day on this, we were engaged on this matter also during this year, not just during the second part of it, we think that after our study despite the fact that the portfolio is experiencing a low, we don't want to erase nothing of the previous setup, cause it is all depending by tons of study, testing process, analysis and in certain conditions honestly it was impossible to avoid some triggers despite certain loss, but since now we are at the beginning of new year, after our studies we had during previous year and verifies during this period we believe to add other strategies at market that also during this final part of the year had profit in comparison to some other components we have, nothing will be disrupted and the general alignment/exposition of the Portfolio will be closer to the previous, we are adding in a simple way other looks for markets as we believe in the power of diversification as always.
That's all for now guys, some details more will be released during next week, we have to talk with some details more about other questions. Happy New Year to all, in a special way to Investors that are still on our Darwin.