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HFD in drawdown. What do you think about it?

I checked forum at that other investment platform,because HFD has some 350 investors there and there is complete silence last two weeks.Which is understandable considering my screenshots of his work there.People are OK.
If somebody is not happy how darwin HFD looks or works,such person should have a word with Darwinex and complain to them.

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@Tomcat
Look at the trading account here. With more than 1,000 % profit nobody can be so blind to tell anyone that this is a low risk trader.

The worst month there was September 2018, on his Darwin it was February 2020. So it was expected that the trouble comes up here as the Darwin doubled the DD while his trading account stayed in line with the past DD. DD duplication is NOT normal. Maybe someone of Darwinex can explain it, maybe the reason were the poor results in January 2020.

He also added another bad losing day after his „explaining“ post. I asked him for a short comment on his thread 5 days ago but my comment was moved here so I cannot expect an answer.

The behavior of Darwinex was new to me to move related post to new topics as if HFD is their only gold nugget and protect it against somebody is trying to take it away.

A critical point of view is not bashing, just basic for free discussions. I am not sure whether that is possible here anymore, at least not about this Darwin.

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I don’t think those explanations justify the higher frequency of trades, and the huge difference of ratio in pips win/loss.
I wish to support the trader, but he needs to offer a more credible explanation, if he has it.
I’d wish you and him are right, but the facts don’t help his cause.
Sometimes a “mea culpa” is better than a non credible explanation.

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There was one Gold position started Friday 21.02. which was stopped out with higher loss because of gap at the opening on Monday night.How was he supposed to make it smaller,when there was a gap?He closed it as soon as possible and continued with other trading.

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200% agree.
There were no insults only in-depth analysis, in this way it seems that darwins topics are only for congratulations.

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So far I am ok with freedom here,although while I was absent somebody degraded @CavaliereVerde status and I don’t understand it,he was doing good moderating and kept forum alive.

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I am mainly talking about Tuesday when he lost additional ~ 5 % after his explanation and not about the weekend gap.

@IlIlIlIlI I can’t help you with that one,maybe something is missing in LA data for that day.It wouldn’t be first time.I was asking for missing data in LA graph for FSK when he went for a first dive last August and got no response although it was one of most observed and invested darwins.


Clarification:we got response from FSK trader(he said he had big manual trade in Palladium in addition to his usual small trades with EA),there was no response from Darwinex.

It is not necessary to go out to take charts of other platforms.

The underlying strategy of HFD confirms what you say @Tomcat

The current DD is similar to others before, and the fall is not so hard as the darwin is.

I agree that the RM in this case is not helping the trader.

The problem is that the risk stability of the strategy, calculating the Var only with 45 days, is not enough to catch always current scenarios of dleverage, then the Var is very volatile and the RM doesn’t work well.

Same happens with strategies that work with high time frames when the setups are concentrated in periods with frecuency much higher than 45 days.

The modification of the RM tries to reduce this problem when the volatility lows calculating the maximun VAR in last 6 months, and reducing the target Var proportionally with the current Var and the Max.

But why this modification does not have worked well with HFD?

Because the volatility of the Var of HFD is extreme. If we see in the last 6 months max VAR is 10% and min 3,22%, more than 3 times… And the adjustment max is only for 2:1

Then the look back of HFD is not 6 months, is less because is limited by 2:1

Easily check if this limitation were as everybody the DD had been much smaller as the underlying strategy:

Main losses DD:

12th Feb: - 5,17%
20th Feb: - 4,30%

23th Feb: - 4,71%
24th Feb: - 4,92%

Checking the var of those days and only the 12th of feb was limited the target, the other 3 the var was higher than 2x3,22, then the target Var was 10%

If the look back were 6 months and limited to target VAR of 5%, the target VAR of 3 last days would be aprox 6,5% same as the underlying strategy and dleverage had not been amplified to 10%

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There is a factor that many people still haven’t understand well. I have mentioned several times in the past that trading with -and this is just an example- 20% of VAR is four times less risky than trading with 5% VAR.

Many uneducated people think that as lowest the VAR is the risk is the lowest too, and it is exactly the opposite. The lowest VAR is the highest risk for investors and the least for the trader equity. Of course trading a very high VAR is dangerous for the trader and the account is on high risk to be blowed. But it is only when the VAR is too high and/or not under control.

When things are good, a low VAR is wonderful for investors, but when things are bad and the trader overtrade a little bit and luck is not on his side…these things happen. It is not necessary to go crazy, just some overtrading and a little bit of bad luck is enough to get a deep DD.

Good luck and good trading for HFD and his investors.

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And the solution is not to overtrade…
Martingale is a subcase of overtrading to speed up the recovery of DD.
Can work once twice, many times but at some point the black swan comes, this was a kind of grey swan…

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@JJENSLOPFAM My problem is not the DD,but the fact that Risk Manager ‘‘ate’’ big % of profits while trader was handling his risk OK.So now we have bad situation that DD is very similar to what trader has in his account,while profits are much smaller and they will be even less in the future because of last change in RM in January.
Quants at Darwinex will have to do something that is for sure.It is not reasonable to expect traders to keep an eye on the markets and also keep an eye on darwinex algos and also fight themselves against Divergence.And then you cannot say that Darwinex is the asset manager if they expect all this work to be performed by retail traders…It is complex problem.

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Everybody (trader and investors) doubled the money when the VAR was at 5% and the things were good. The trader risked half in his underlying account while risking double on investors money…but when things are good everybody like it…but that is a two ways road.

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If the real max. DD is exceeded, the VaR should jump to the max. VaR (here 40.5 % shown on the trading account) until the Darwin turns back to a profitable green candle (here weekly candle).
That would have saved some money and pain of Investors - and some value of this Darwin.

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We’re simply trying to keep the forum organized. Topics with hundreds or even thousands of posts are discouraging to read and catch up with.

Related topics are all linked from the topics they originated from, thus enabling HighFive and other users to easily find all HFD-related discussions on the forum.

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When poeple’s hard earned money is on the line,if they are not dumb,they are very interested to read everything from the beginning to the end.
SCS thread is nice example of that,161 got what they deserve.
I took great effort to defend your trader HFD from accusations and now it will not be in his thread for newcomers to see.

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HFD is recovering well. Great trader. People just have to be patient.

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Besides emotional cooments, let’s notice that @HighFive reduced the max capacity to 7 millions.
For those who trust him this is the time to get in.

My actual position as investor is that I don’t know if he is a good or a bad trader.
This trackrecord in my opinion is a combination of alpha and luck, luck serves to speed up the recovery of drawdowns.

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As max DD was doubled, IMO it is early enough for confident investors to open a position in this Darwin when it comes back to the old max. DD level (less than 10% DD). It is too early to see a recovery without a huge portion of imagination.

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Another sign of a quality of a trader.Smart move in these market conditions.

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