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HZU - MartynasT

Dear Darwinex Community,

I would like to introduce my HZU Darwin and a little bit of background about me and my strategy.

BACKGROUND

For the last 15 years I have been involved in financial markets (private investor / financial analyst / portfolio manager) but never really day traded in currency markets until last year January. I do understand all the risks and know poor statistics for the retail customers, so my expectations was fairly limited.

STRATEGY

I am fully manual trader. Trading strategy is based on correlation analysis, pattern recognition and private set of technical analysis indicators. I have experience (7years) in professional technical analysis company, so this tool is my primary gun. I trade main currency pairs plus some commodities (gold/silver/oil) and Dax30. No martingale, no grid. My goal is stable growth, this could be 10%, 20% or even more per annum with fairly limited drawdown (-10%). Each month I start from scratch and trying to be more conservative at the beginning until I have accumulated some gains.

DARWINEX

From what I experienced, trading in FX markets is mentally very hard job, but from the other hand it could be very well rewarded. Then I started I was fully blinded by high hit ratio until I found Darwinex. Here it means almost nothing and other parameters are more important. I found it suitable for me to track my trading characteristics because I want to state it clearly what despite nice returns last year I wasn’t happy about my trading except last week which was profitable and comfortable at the same time and I would like to set it as my own benchmark the way of trading:

My investible attributes clearly show my strengths and weaknesses – high market correlation, risk adjustment, closing strategy and performance measurements, but very weak loss aversion. This year I will be seeking to improve this key characteristic (La):

La

FINAL REMARKS
I know how it is important to know the person on the strategy behind, so here I feel it’s about time to introduce myself. I feel that I am in the right place here which will help me to grow as a trader and reach my objectives in the future ahead.

9 Likes

The last week was incredibly very poor for many traders… I am always checking my performance relative to others and my favorite comparison is top10 with highest AUM, all I can see it was tough period:

Probably I was punishing myself mentally too much, cause on longer time frame (3M) my performance is well within the limits and if not the last Friday with -4%, well I would be outperforming all my favorite Darwins:

I saw a lot of criticism on HFD thread for shorting gold and guess which position got me -4% on Friday? Exactly - gold. I have cut my position before the weekend but still hold portion of it.

There are signs that gold is preparing to exhaust to the upside – sentiment is running high – the latest to tip their hat is Goldman Sachs saying gold will go to $1,850 if the coronavirus extends into Q2. The latest COT net speculative long positing has just reached a new record high of 353,600 contracts, a massive weekly jump from 308,000. Does it mean gold will collapse next Monday? No. But risk longing gold is very high.

We all choose the strategy to trade and I will post the same I did on FHD threat: “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”
Paul Tudor Jones

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Nice introduction, dear MartynasT.

Your trading type is suffering at an exposition to the law of series.

The risk to lose is sometimes 6 times higher than the risk to earn money.

So, one day or another, the bad series could push your equity curve so down that the Time Drawdown could be very long.

The good point is that you are aware about that and you already have detected why. (Thanks to the La metric of Darwinex)

I would like to believe that you could make that evolve but i also know that it is your trading style since many years.

So, if you can change that, that probably means that you can change a big part of the way you think your trading.

And to change a big part of the way you think the trading means make some huge modifications in your mental structure who treats the informations

I mean, it is the exact opposite of your trading style that you must do this evolution.

Because, currently, you let your losses run and you cut your profits.

I’ve read you, so i really think you are intelligent enough to not simply enjoy your good current results and pray for the bad series to not come.

Anyway, i saw some trading style like yours who could make profits for long years…

You decided to evole… So, i sincerally wish you good luck and will check your “Loss Aversion” metric sometimes :+1:

PS : We must note that several Darwinex traders was short on Gold last week. Is not Paul Tudor Jones who wants.

Dear, PurePipProducer,

thank you for your feedback, I really appreciate it and find it valuable!

Let me clarify few things:

I only started trading in FX market just a year ago, so I can easily be classified as a “newbie”. I presume I am still in early stage of defining my ultimate trading strategy by monitoring my past trades. As a portfolio manager I was “buy and hold” guy and didn’t have problems with a loss aversion, but here the price dynamic is different and I guess I need more time to adopt to the new rules set.

In fact, I feel quite the opposite - I am not happy with my trading style even known results were good last year. And most of the time I am thinking what bad series are just on the corner :slight_smile: I think this has pretended me from larger losses last year but I must find the way to run the winners.

3 Likes

Hope everyone is ok during this turbulent period! I believe the experience gained during this period should be the most valuable asset you can accumulate.

Since I am posting about markets in other social platforms, decided to post here time from time with interesting price developments. And now undoubtedly we are witnessing unprecedented market conditions:

The last time I posted about Smart/Dumb Money Confidence was in early November '19. The smart money was selling into the rally, now we have a different situation. The Dumb Money is selling at the fastest pace and although I don’t think the bottom is in, but we are much closer to it (S&P 500 target 2200-2350+/-).

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Today I have received the mark that I am already trading for a full year at the Darwinex:


The result of my Darwin performance is nothing special, probably just a bit above the average, but now I can compare it with my top ten list for 1Y period, which places me in about the middle:


The underlying strategy has much better performance but also contains a larger risk. Got beaten several times by shorting GOLD too early and longing OIL just a few days before the major bottom. The last big kick came from stock markets, there I didn’t account into a “V” shape recovery. A truly hard period but things have normalized and some important lessons learned.

To achieve a better return on my Darwin I have to reduce my risk which has increased during the first half of this year. The curve of the risk has no drastic spikes to the upside but is above my target level. I am planning gradually to increase my equity so that the total VAR of my Darwin could go back to the sub-teen level:


The biggest satisfaction probably is the fact that I reached a pretty good Darwin score of 59 in the first year, but of course, there is plenty of room to improve. There is no red investible attributes at the moment with the focus to improve Risk Stability and Loss Aversion, especially the later one:

attributes

The journey continues!

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One ugly and three good things about my HZU Darwnin over the last month.

The ugly one - a single silver short trade that generated the biggest loss for the month. It was hard to accept the loss since I do not trade silver very often, but I did it following my own rules and the rest of the month went smoothly.

The good things I would like to start is a decreasing VAR - I managed to decrease it over the last month from >33% to 21.82% which will bring it closer to my underlying strategy:

The next good thing is that the new D-Score remains almost unchanged - only a slight reduction from 62.5 to 59.8.

And finally the last one - my first Darwinia allocation for the 67th place. Not a game-changer, but still a very pleasant milestone to achieve.

The goal for the future remains the same - reducing VAR and increasing my trading quality (D-Score)

All the best,
Martynas

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The first day of August began with a red candle and then it took me almost two weeks to get back on a positive way:

Despite this bumpy start, I have finished the month with a +1.65% return and received an additional DarwinIA allocation of 30.000 Eur (60.000 Eur in total now):

Now it feels how a higher D-Score helps in this competition, I had better monthly returns before but never was allocated.

I am still trying to reduce my Var, but it’s not an overnight solution, perhaps it will take another couple months just to get it under 20 and preferably closer to 10.

4 Likes