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IRY - FedericoSellitti - Semi-Automated System

Hi everyone,
it’s weekend and I can finally dedicate some time to introduce my Darwin IRY and myself :grin:

First of all, before you read, let me say that I have published a video about me and my Darwin, so, if you prefer listening over reading, feel free to have a look: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY0_J9VHWsU&t=12s

My name is Federico Sellitti, I’m from Italy (although I live in London and usually spend more than half year travelling), I’m 29 and it’s very nice to meet you.
I’ve been a Forex Trader since 2007, opening my first account on eToro with my mother’s name, because I was still 17 :smile:
I don’t want to bother you talking about how an excellent trader I am or how many millions I make every month, just want to highlight very quickly my background.
My adventure in Forex Trading didn’t start well, but I managed to grow my account since 2007, quitting my job in 2013, becoming a full time trader. What else about me? I’ve joined the University studying Statistics for the Financial Markets. I always say that I’ve been very lucky in my life, because at the time I had to choose what to study at the University, I was already very passionate about Forex Trading.
I have been writer and contributor for a financial magazine. I had a short period between 2018 and 2019, at the HSBC, working on a project about trading.
In the second half of 2017, I started to share some of my strategies and systems on Udemy.
I have a YouTube channel that I mainly use to analyze the market and reply to questions from my students. I don’t monetize it, I do it just for fun, although recently I was thinking about giving back to the community by enabling ads and giving all the revenue from YouTube to followers, organizing something like trading competitions. Ok, I’m going off-topic :grin:

About my strategy. IRY is my Darwin based on a system called ALM-TCS. It is a semi-automated system that I also share in one of my courses on Udemy, so everything 100% transparent about my strategy. It’s a system that has been back-tested since 2013, forward tested for the whole 2019, for a total of 3455 trades (only on GBP/USD. In the course, I also consider the other majors and minors and give results for them).
I use the system only on GBP/USD because of several reasons:

  1. It’s been the one that performed at the best since 2013;
  2. Since the system is trend-catcher and performs better with high volatility, GBP/USD offers better conditions than some other pairs like EUR/USD;
  3. GBP/USD spread is, most of the times, better than other pairs like GBP/JPY;
  4. GBP/USD has, most of the times, more liquidity than other pairs, this means less problems such as spread widening and slippages, especially during the overnight sessions.

“Ok, everything amazing. A trader with experience, a system that works. Great, let me invest 2 million in this system”.
Right now, in November 2019, I’m the first one to tell you that my Darwin is far from being one of the best here on Darwinex and you can find something better. The reason is that I just joined a couple of months ago and I’m a newbie on this platform. This means that I don’t completely understand and master important concepts like divergence or risk manager. This lack of competence would not affect my system, but could affect your investments.
I’m working a lot on it and also tracking my Darwin from a demo portfolio, but, at the moment, I can’t say that I know 100% of how Darwinex works and, for sure, I have a huge room for improvement on this.

WHY ARE YOU ON DARWINEX?
I have two main reasons for it:

  1. I want to provide my students with a track record that they can follow over time, without constantly watching my updates in my Udemy courses;

  2. I want to provide my students (and others) with the opportunity to make some money, without actually working as a trader. I get many times messages like: “The market moved very fast and I was at work, unable to adjust my orders” or “I’m very busy in this period of my life, I guess I should focus on daily charts and check my account 10 minutes per day”.
    Many people don’t have the time to take care of their Forex business. Many others just love their job and don’t want to dedicate more than 10 minutes per day to take care of their trades/investments. So, for all those people who were and are interested in the system, but don’t have time, I opened this account.

I want to clarify that I also share my investor password in one other YouTube video. You can find it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTvxvzZ8z4o&t=2s
If you have time, you can just log into my account, copy my trades without investing in my Darwin. You will get 100%, without giving me the 20% fee through Darwinex.
I’m not interested that much in having millions as AuM. I trade my own accounts even outside Darwinex. I’m happy with what I make, I’m happy with my life, I’m happy with my $20 t-shirt and I don’t feel the rush to become a multi-millionaire.

If you have any question, I will be happy to try to answer at my best. Meanwhile, have a great trading day :slight_smile:

10 Likes

Hi Federico,

I’ve noticed you’re also active in other topics in this community. Always great to see active members!
I’ve had a brief look at your IRY and the thing I always look at first seems to be in order on your account: On average your winners are bigger than your losers and your winrate is higher than 50%. For me, that’s a formula for long term succes. Now it’s just a matter of adding to your trackrecord (like all of us :wink: ).
Keep it up, and good luck with your trading!

4 Likes

Thanks a lot Renko!
Regarding winners bigger than losers, it will always be like that with the system that I use.
Regarding win rate above 50%, it is weird to say, but it will drop when the system enters a better period. Let me explain, because it may sound as a contradiction.
The system has no take profits, it moves the stop loss every time the price moves x pips in favour of the trade. A sort of manual trailing stop. At the moment, GBP/USD is not having any strong trend (almost one month and a half between 1.28 and 1.30) and it’s been like this since I launched my Darwin IRY (not very lucky) :smiley:
With strong trends, sometimes the system is able to catch 300 or more pips, that will be shown as a huge win, but counted only as one win. While in ranging periods, we might have several small losses. This will lower the win%.
Overall, the system should have a win% between 40 and 50%, always keeping wins equal or bigger than losses. Take this current 52% as a fake figure due to the youth of the Darwin :smile:

5 Likes

Hello traders, investors and normal people :smiley:
I wanted to share with you the performance of my Darwin IRY, for the month of November 2019.
As usual, I posted a review on my YouTube channel, so if you prefer watching/listening to it, feel free to go through the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUmG3OKnPfo

November has been a tough month for my trading system. To be fair, I should say that the first 25 days have been nothing special, with the return that was just swinging between -0.30% and +0.50% most of the times. This low return, whether negative or positive, was mainly due to a lack of volatility.
Last week of November has been a disaster, with 5 days out of 5 closed with a loss!
This brought the performance down and we closed the month with a -1.99%.

Except for the trading perspective, with last week that has been very negative, I also want to analyze some negative and positive aspects of the month of November.

Negative

Of course, I have to include results in the negative column. I can say that this is a temporary period of drawdown, I can say that I totally know what I’m doing, I can say that the system has been backtested since 2013 and proved to be profitable. All nice words, but what really matters is to deliver good results. The month of November has been a negative one. End of story. I go on following the system 100%.

(I open a small bracket here to say that I do invest a lot in research for my trading, even for the system that I use here on Darwinex. This is mainly to find small nuances that could make the system more profitable, less risky, or just improve it in other areas. Having a bad trading month is very far from being a reason to change even the slightest thing in my system, so no change needed so far).

Positive

I am quite happy about other aspects of the month of November:

  1. Drawdown under 8% and return at -2.50%. Currently, the maximum drawdown is at -7.82%. Considering that the system just faced (or still currently facing) a bad trading period, having a drawdown below 8%, with a return of -2.50% in this period (end of October + whole November), is a sign that the system is pretty solid during negative periods and can really keep the risk at low levels. Now, it has to prove that it can maximize profits when it runs in a positive period. Let’s hope it can prove it very soon :smiley:

(I have to open another bracket here. Soooo sorry about that. When I opened my account, in my profile, I wrote that the system could potentially achieve, as a realistical expectation based on results since 2013, a profit above 20% per year, keeping the maximum drawdown below 8%. This was before discovering how VaR works for investors. Now, I have changed that and I wrote that the system could potentially achieve a profit above 25%, keeping a drawdown below 16%. Real figures should be a yearly return above 34%, with maximum drawdown under 14%, but I like to under promise and over deliver :slight_smile: )

  1. I start to get the hang of Darwinex parameters, especially the ones that affect investors. I’ve been spending my last 2 months reading, watching Darwinex’ YouTube videos and asking a lot here on the Forum (thanks @CavaliereVerde for the links to the Risk Manager). I finally can say that I understand 90% of how Darwinex works. I’m also exercising predicting how my Darwinex attributes will evolve day by day. Things like “VaR is calculated on 45 trading days. So my Rs is dropping because my Darwin is just passing through the first 45 trading days, but it should start to increase day by day after that” and magically seeing that, after 45 days, my Rs is really increasing day by day! Feels very good and I can say that this was my weak spot and a potential threat for future investors, but I’m glad that it is becoming one of my strengths.

  2. I shared a third positive point in the video, related to a software that I give in the course about the system I’m using. I wouldn’t know how to share this point here, but I will just say that the software also shows that we are slowly getting out of this bad trading period. Maybe a point about that is that December started with a +2.02%, that is more than our loss for the month of November, but I seriously don’t like to talk about December now, because we still have a long way to go.

Well, I think I have covered all the main points for the month of November.
Wish you a profitable and happy December and I’m here if you have any question!

Federico

4 Likes

Really like your style and also your youtube channell :

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtCgwDW4kpVuBQVoUYJTmig/videos

Really a lot of good educational content but it seems to be 100% about manual trading.
Here you are speaking about backtests and semi-automated, so where is the material about automated/algo trading?

1 Like

Hi @CavaliereVerde, thank you so much for the feedback and the kind words :slight_smile:
The semi-automated system is on sale on Udemy. Not sure if I can give the link to my website here, I try, otherwise I apologize for posting commercial contents: http://quoraforexquestions.com/education/

The system I use here is a combination of “FOREX TRADING STRATEGY: A COMPLETE SYSTEM WITH LIVE EXAMPLES” and “FOREX TRADING STRATEGY PART 2 - ADVANCED ALM-TCS PROGRESSION”.

On my YouTube channel, I tend to talk almost exclusively about my discretionary trading, because following a system is easy, it’s just a bunch of rules, but technical and fundamental analysis of the market is harder and results are not the same for everyone. It’s a sort of gym for traders who enrolled in my courses about discretionary trading. I post my analysis there so traders can compare their analysis with mine. If someone wants to talk about a different currency pair, he/she usually just sends me a message on Udemy or open a thread in the community, so I can reply there :slight_smile:

1 Like

I wanted to thank the first investor in my Darwin :slight_smile:
I see your money invested and wanted to thank you for your trust.

A very small update, since I’m already writing a message here.
The system is currently facing the market with a low risk for two reasons:

  1. We are coming from a very important winning streak, that lowers the risk in the software I use;
  2. It’s an important week for GBP. Since I trade GBP/USD, I expect the spread to suddenly increase during possible strong movements, so… safety first :slight_smile:

Happy trading to all of you!

4 Likes