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IRY - FedericoSellitti - Semi-Automated System

Hello traders,
a very quick update for all the investors in IRY.

The system is currently going thorugh one of the worst days of its history (from 2013):

  • -2.66% on the Darwin;
  • -1.64% on my own trading account;
  • 12 positions, with 10 losses and 2 wins (today’s win ratio = 16.67%)

Strong volatility combined with a poor win ratio and we have a very bad trading day.

Probably for some experienced investors here on Darwinex, -2.66% in one day is nothing. I consider this to be a very large number for just one day of trading, so I felt the need to write a few words for any investor that might be concerned about my Darwin’s management.

Everything is like before. I haven’t changed anything, the system is running with the same setup, same risk and same positive expectation.
On a personal level, I’m just normal, very calm, I have had hundreds of bad trading days in my career, not going to start to overtrade and revenge trade just today, that I also manage other people’s money :slight_smile:
As usual, if you have any concern, I invite you to drop me a message on my socials or here on Darwinex.

Best of luck!

Federico

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After an incredible start of the 2020, the ALM system (IRY) is going through some tough days.
Volatility is very high and I also don’t like to see so many movements in just one day, especially when these movements are against our system.

Do we have to be worried about it? I cannot see the future, so I can’t answer this question, although, talking about myself, I’m not worried at all.
What I can do is to give you some numbers in order to compare this period with other tough moments in the history of the system, so you can answer that question by yourself and decide what to do. It’s your money, your call :slight_smile:
Statistics are provided with 0.20% per progression (the one I use with my personal account on Darwinex, since November 2019):

Worst trading day before 2020: 16 June 2016 = -2.65%
Worst trading day ever: 16 March 2020 = -3.13%

Top 5 worst trading periods:

September-October 2015: -6.30%
June 2016: -5.86%
May-June 2018: -5.81%
August 2019: -4.21%
October-November 2019: -3.79%

Currently: -3.19%

Regarding my Darwin IRY, there is a ratio of 1.62 between my account and investors’ account. This ratio seems to be quite stable (going to share my research on it in the next monthly update). So figures for investors would be:

September-October 2015: -10.21%
June 2016: -9.49%
May-June 2018: -9.41%
August 2019: -6.82%
October-November 2019: -6.14%

Currently: -5.17%

Regarding the duration of the Drawdown, only June 2016 can be compared to this current drawdown. Also in June 2016, the drawdown was built in a few days, due to an extremely high volatility on GBP/USD, following the Brexit referendum.

Hope this will help investors to make better and more informed decisions, whether that means leaving or joining IRY.

Federico

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Hello traders and investors,
as discussed in the thread reported below, I’m forced to reduce the risk of my Darwin for the time being.

I decided to follow the option of trying to reduce the risk in the underlying strategy, reducing the VaR and trying my best to keep a stable ratio at 1.62 between my personal account and investors’ account.
Although I admit I’m not happy to do this, because I strongly believe in my system and in the countless hours of work I’ve put behind it (and continue to put through research), I believe this is the best choice for investors and the best path to follow during this unusual period of the markets.

Wish you all the best.

Federico

2 Likes

WOW … 200k AUM… :sunglasses:
Congrats!
Impressive result with less than one year of trackrecord!
This mean you are a credible and serious teacher, trusted by students and friends.

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Thanks a lot @CavaliereVerde :slight_smile:
Some of the investors are traders who attended my course and they already know the system, so they have a longer track record to check.
Happy anyway to see people trusting me and my trading activity. It inspires me to do better in the future.

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Can you show it?

1 Like

It is an Excel file containing all the trades (trade by trade) since 2013, more than 4000 trades.
I announced that I was working on putting all the material together in June 2018 and I published the course in March 2019. It’s been a huge work and there are some things I prefer to keep in the course. Students paid $10 to have access to the strategy, the track record, software that I developed for the money management (I paid $2,200 to develop it) and EA coming for free in the next update.
I try to be 100% transparent even outside the courses, but I think it wouldn’t be fair for people who paid for it :slight_smile:

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Congrats indeed @FedericoSellitti !
Well earned and keep up the solid trading :+1:

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Hello traders,
the review of the month of March is coming tomorrow (a bit late, sorry about that).
It’s been a great month with many things to say and analyze, but, meanwhile, April has started in a very bad way and we are currently experiencing the worst drawdown of the system since it started this adventure on Darwinex.

Current Max drawdown for the system: -5.16%
Current Max drawdown for IRY: -8.36%

This is the 4th worst drawdown in the history of the system. Nothing new, I’ve been here before, but it is no joke and it needs to be taken seriously.
Luck was certainly not a factor that helped in this period. These are just two stop loss hit in this period:

Something that can happen and sometimes it also happens in favor, but certainly something no one wishes to see in a period of drawdown.

I trust the system 100% and nothing will be changed while facing this period of drawdown.

The only thing that changed is regarding my personal account. As the VaR went over 6.17%, I have been forced to increase my risk to compensate the ratio with investors going down, in order to give them the same curve I have with my personal account.
It’s something I don’t mind doing, I’m here for the investors and not for my personal account, so I’m ok with increasing my personal risk in order to keep stable conditions for investors in IRY.
What I mind and I have to admit I’m very disappointed in, is that while I have to struggle day by day with the VaR calculations to try to guarantee the best conditions for my investors, while I spend time to write a post providing evidence that the current VaR system does not help in this period, either some traders or their investors, Darwinex decided not to spend even 2 words about it, but preferred to talk about the fight against Wikipedia and why they are not just another MT4 broker.

Anyway, I’m always here for any question and concern and let’s hope this drawdown period will go away sooner than expected :slight_smile:

One last thing, some people asked me if this is the best period to invest in IRY, since it is having a bad drawdown.
Personally speaking, I have increased my investment in the system just this morning and I plan to spend my first performance fees to invest in IRY.
Having said that, you also have to consider that current drawdown is at -8.36% and, as I wrote in the description for the Darwin, a maximum drawdown of -16% is not only possible, but can also be expected based on previous results.
Please consider all the aspects, don’t rush your investments and invest only money you can afford to lose. If you have any doubt, contact me before investing.

Best of luck

Federico

4 Likes

I’m fully with you on the risk manager issue. It’s supposed to protect and NOT multiply risk of responsible strategies. My underlying strategy is currently at <2% and I consider a range of 1% to 5% to be a reasonable risk profile if you are aiming at 20-30% annual return. I would argue that 10% VaR is only acceptable if you are aiming at 50%+.

I think Risk manager in a current state is a massive issue and butchers too many systems. I can post here examples of how underlying strategies seem to behave as usual, but Darwin blew up.

I do find it ridiculous that traders have to conform with some arbitrary number of 10% VaR or else they can be trapped like ERQ or lose control over their product with sporadic risk fluctuations. I understand the need to protect investors in some sort of way from gamblers and doomed strategies, but I don’t understand the need to hard limit the risk for other ppl, unless it’s done to avoid “milking” ? But if investors want to take more risk, they can choose another provider.

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40 days and 11 hours and… we are back to the top.

A sincere “thank you” and “well done” to all the investors that have decided to stay strong and sit tight during this period of drawdown.

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@FedericoSellitti
Congrats !!
Very well done.

Keep it up :+1:

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Hello people, hello traders and hello investors :slight_smile:

I have prepared a video about the changes that are coming on Darwinex, talking about my Darwin IRY, how it will be affected and what all the investors in it should know.

This is a review that is linked to my personal Darwin (IRY), so, please, understand that the situation and the effects may be different for other Darwins.
Also, I’m trying to read all the posts and stay up to date with the changes. If there is any mistake in my video or something new that will come up on a second time, I will let you know.

If you have any question, concern, criticism or other, please feel free to ask.
I will not be very active in this community for a while, except for posting updates for my investors, so I apologise in advance if I don’t reply soon.

It has become a bit of a toxic environment for me, lately.
You also have all my contacts through YouTube, so… talk to you soon and good luck for your trading :slight_smile:

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Thanx!
Very good and clear video!

There is only one mistake:new investor leverages are x1.5 and x3 , there is no x2 .

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Great video update. One thing you did not mention, investors that do not sell/ repurchase their Darwin to change to the new version will remain invested in the existing one. VaR will remain at 10, but commissions will be reduced and a higher management fee will be charged (1.85%).

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Any leverage level between 1 and 3 is possible. E.g. own funds are 5,000 - you activate leverage - have 15,000 available to invest - can invest any amount you want up to 15,000, not just 5,000x1.5 or 5,000x3.

When selling the old DARWIN, a message will indicate how much to invest to maintain 10% VaR. But you can invest any amount between x1 and x3 your own funds.

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@CavaliereVerde, @SATFX and @bianka thanks for your comments and clarifications.

  • Any leverage available between 1 and 3. About this @bianka, following your example, in order to have $15,000 available to invest, do investors have to click on something like “activate leverage x3” a bit like it happens now for the 2x?

  • Existing investors can hold their investments with VaR at 10, commissions will be reduced even for them and management fee will be 1.20*(10/6.5) = 1.85%
    About this, do we know if Darwinex is planning sooner or later to transfer even these investors to a VaR of 6.5%?

I will try to read more carefully and update the video.

Thanks!

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Portfolios with leverage activated prior to June 1, will have now x3 in their “Available to invest” without having to click anything. Portfolios with no prior leverage will need to click “Activate leverage”.

There are no plans to unilaterally transfer investments to new DARWINs. Platform messages will be used to remind users to switch.

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Hello community,
I just had a live session, talking about how the recent changes can affect your investments in IRY.

The first part deals with the VaR and the multiplier. I try to explain why the multiplier is important and how you will have lower risk and lower potential profit if you merely switch from the old Darwin to the new one, without activating leverage.

In the second part, I will use my investment portfolio to switch from the old IRY to the new one, so we can see what changes in a practical way.

In the third part, I’m going to talk about the new leverage and how to use it properly to decide the risk you want to have and also if you want to keep more or less the same equity curve you had with the old 10% VaR.

In the last part, I talk about Darwinex for traders, showing the money I have made so far through performance fees and rebates, and trying to set realistic expectations for all the traders interested in opening a trading account and start their adventure on Darwinex.

As usual, good luck with your trading :slight_smile:

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Hi @FedericoSellitti,
nice results on your Darwin, nice investors, very communicative, great commitment, congratulations. I admire all traders on GBP…

if you think useful, I like see you answer to this question:
on abril 8 if GBPUSD goes down instead up, and yesterday if it goes up instead down, exactly the sample amplitude movements , what would you / your system had done?
many thanks, all the best to you and your investors,
OldSchool

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