I understand but how do you know you rules will be profitable?
Just from common sense?
MA200 has been tested on spx500 to cut some drawdown once or twice but this does not give it any magical power, especially on cryptos that have nothing to do with indexes.
Every moving average or indicator make sense but I dont’ know if they will work, the only way I know is the algo way, where you make tests with hundreds of trades.
Yes those are the golden crosses, I was inspired by them for my trendfollower, but it was just the beginning.
I just hope to be able to capture the general trend. I dont really mind if I lose some % compared to the buy and hold method if that means I would have less drawdown. I would imagine that some simple trend following system (like the above) should not be far off. That said… what I imagine and what is true are not the same if not proved so I am asking if that period (sample size) looks adequate to you. I am talking about the 2010-2018. I know its far from SPX sample…
Let me put in this way, if some simple buying and selling with golden crosses were enough there would be no need to go crazy with algorithmic trading.
Using some moving averages that WORKED on the past can whipsaw you on the future.
Trading systems have to be simple, mine are simple, but not so simple…
3 posts were merged into an existing topic: Crypto coins vs darwins
This is trendfollowing sirs.
The difficult part is not coding or optimizing, but enduring and waiting.
Neat impact …
Darwinex just remembered me I should come back to this thread $LSC :
Impressive 2019 results so far. Congrats.
LTCM was a big company with many PhD MBAs and even Nobel prizes.
Trusted by the best banks of the world.
So my conclusion is that greed affect also the big ones, big stuff big bullshit.
About Medallion the results are impressive but it is not investable, investable CTAs have an average annualized return of 10% .
My strategies are completely useless for big funds that have to manage billions, it is a matter of capacity.
So there is a lot of room for low capacity algo trading.
Exactly!That approach could have saved investors looking into DLF.Two years of +50% profits and people were piling in on the top as usual.It was obvious that was an algo and not some young Soros or Tudor.
Capacity…It is a secret what is going on on Big Boys levels,but there are some clues.We at retail side are lead to believe into brokers and their LP bullshit.I wouldn’t be surprised if those mega funds didn’t have access to 100-500Mil. single trades at better or same prices as we have here at Darwinex for 1 lot,including all costs.Maybe even much bigger single trades.Darwinex is very low in the market structure.And we have to struggle with that.If Darwinex AuM would grow into solid 9 figures,your capacity would miraculously grow without you changing anything.The better traders we will have here,the better will be for everyone involved.
Of course Darwinex can do better, but even with this condition I would be very happy to manage 4 millions with my darwins.
The point is that algo trading of private traders is not in competition with big funds that hold their trades for weeks.
I have a lot of respect for “gifted” manual traders but the algo path makes a lot of sense for “normal” guys with a good level of scientific education, even without a PhD.
There are a lot of good books that explain how to develop a profitable algo, it is diffcult but doable.
For manual trading there are only books full of psychology and common sense, psychology is important but first you need a ruleset.
It seems that you need a “mentor”, a mythological character that empowers you with the “gift”.
The problem is that 99.9% of those guys are charlatans.
There is no hard ruleset.That is why it is called discretionary trading.The rules for trade set-ups and risk management are only basis for discretionary decision if trader will take a position or not.Human beings are very complex and some have capabilities which cannot be rationally explained.Take an example of Soros who is known to get a severe back-pain when he gets himself into a bad trading position.
People are born “gifted”,they just need effort and right circumstances to fully blossom.
This is the complete situation of my trading.
What you see is what you get.
Maybe I am doing a bullshit or maybe I will inspire other traders.
The point with social trading is not lack of privacy or lack of intellectual property protection, the point is lack of transparency.
I agree with your decision to leave @asder34
Unfortunatelly is very difficult to be successfull with every darwin, beating the market is really difficult.
My situation is not so different from @integracore2 @PrimeZor @Pulse07 .
I have invested 100 darwins of my selection for real money since May, no good results yet, very hard indeed.
I was speaking about us as darwin providers.
If a tradrs provides 5 darwins generally 1-2 work, the minority.
For investor is much more difficult, to make money you need at least 90% profitable darwins.
I now feel only do much fewer darwins with longer history and smaller VaR, my experimental of 100 Darwins is a bit crazy in this market
no one have patience to wait for months and years without seeing a few years of good track records, leaving so few selections here, espetially market so hard for all good stuff in past two years.