Market evolution

markets

CondorcetInvestment 2018-11-23 12:58:56 UTC #381

... global demand ?

Chema01 2018-11-24 06:18:07 UTC #382

Although the original text refers to 'global supply', the correct meaning of the phrase would be 'global demand'. Thank you again for correcting and reading these messages.

CNBC / Reuters 22 Nov 2018

Demand next year is expected to grow at a rate of 1.3 million bpd, compared with a forecast of 1.5 million bpd six months ago. Adjusting to lower demand, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia said on Thursday that it may reduce supply as it pushes OPEC to agree to a joint output cut of 1.4 million bpd.

Chema01 2018-11-26 07:14:22 UTC #383

November 26, 2018

Asian markets show mixed tone as oil prices attempt to recover

Asian markets were mixed on Monday, November 26, with the energy sector declining after oil prices fell last week to their lowest levels of more than a year.

Chinese markets were bullish in the first part of the session. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose slightly at the end. The ASX 200 index fell slightly, with the energy sub-index down 2.71 percent and the materials sector down 2.41 percent.

Forex traders look forward to the next G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires on November 30. It is expected that the presidents of the United States and China will discuss relevant trade issues. While the meeting is taking place, Washington is trying to raise its tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent early next year.

The U.S. currency managed to advance, as investors took refuge in it for fear of a slowdown in global economic growth and while U.S.-China trade tensions are weighing on risk appetite. The dollar, considered a safe haven currency, rose at the same time that a drop in oil prices has raised fears that the global economic recovery is losing momentum.

The Pound lost ground against the Dollar. European Union leaders sealed a Brexit pact on Sunday that they called the best deal Britain could have reached.

Analysts expect the yen to weaken further against the dollar as a result of the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is on a tightening path as the BoJ remains committed to its ultra relaxed monetary policy due to low growth and inflation.

The fight between Rome and Brussels, for Italy's free spending budget that breaks the European Commission's fiscal rules, has put the euro under pressure.

The presence of the President of the European Central Bank in the European Parliament on Monday will be the most important event of the day. The markets expect him to take a softer tone, given the weakness of recent economic data.

Oil prices regained some ground in the Asian session after Friday's heavy losses, but remain under pressure amid weak fundamentals and struggling financial markets.

The price of gold changed little in Asia on Monday, as investors look for signs of relaxation in the trade dispute between China and the United States.

European markets are expected to open mixed on Monday.

Dow loses more than 150 points

Dow loses more than 150 points after worst weekly fall in Thanksgiving since 2011.

U.S. indices fell on Friday, November 23, as some of the major technology stocks came back under pressure and oil prices fell sharply.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 178 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.65 percent. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5 percent.

The Dow and S&P 500 recorded their worst Black Friday performance since 2010. The Nasdaq had its worst Black Friday since 2011.

During the week, the major indices fell more than 3 percent and recorded their biggest loss in a Thanksgiving week since 2011.

Another round of weakness

Was a session on Friday 23 November slightly positive in the European market, with the U.S. closing before usual time.

The new round of purchasing managers' indices has come out in November, with general declines in Germany, France and the euro zone. There is still a lot of economic weakness and no prospect of improvement at the moment.

The main protagonist of the session was the collapse of almost -7% of the future of crude oil, in a clear message from the two-way market. On the one hand, pressure continues to be exerted on OPEC to reduce production and increase the price of oil and, on the other, there is a negative message regarding demand.

As a result, oil companies and basic resources have been the worst supersectors in Europe. Although the sharp falls in the price of crude oil favour everyone, especially the airlines that have behaved best.

Economic growth in the euro area slows in November to four-year lows

The European economy continues to lose momentum, anticipating a disappointing end to the eurozone's GDP.

The Eurozone's PMI Composite Index of Total Activity, which measures the business activity of European companies, dropped in September to a reading of 52.4 points from 53.1 in October.

Trade activity in the euro zone grew at its weakest pace in almost four years in November.

Slow growth in orderbooks and declining exports were accompanied by pessimism about future prospects.

The service sector also has problems

There are new indications that the slowdown is spreading outside the manufacturing sector.

New orders received in the services sector reached their minimum of 25 months and orders for exports fell at the strongest pace of almost two years.

Data suggest that GDP weakness in the third quarter may not have been a temporary problem and that the underlying trend is towards slower economic growth.

Oil falls to annual lows despite OPEC cuts

With Saudi Arabia ready to cut production, with Donald Trump trying to convince them not to, with doubts about supply strength and weak demand, oil doesn't lift its head.

Amid the falls, Brent and West Texas price volatility has increased in November, approaching levels not seen since the 2014-2016 market crash.

The divergence between U.S. crude and Brent oil continues. It comes as the growing US supply is clogging the system and depressing prices.

Overall, world oil supply has increased this year, with the three main producers, the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia pumping more than a third of world consumption.

Crypto’s have record losses

The bitcoin has sunk to $4,000 and most crypto currencies have also fallen, further extending the weekly recession of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

After a major rally last year, which overcame many of the most notorious bubbles in history, the cryptocurrencies have lost $700 billion with their sharp falls and the situation shows little sign of improvement.

Many of the concerns that triggered the 2018 crashes, including increased regulation, infighting and exchange turmoil, have intensified in the past week.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-11-27 06:25:29 UTC #384

November 27, 2018

Asian Markets bullish as investors wait for Trump to meet Xi

Asian markets traded higher on Tuesday, November 27, after a rally on Wall Street and investors await the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose slightly. China's markets were mixed. Australia's ASX 200 index moved between gains and losses, while the financial sub-index and the energy sector rose.

The dollar rose, as concerns about the China-U.S. trade war fueled the purchase of safe haven currencies. Investors are also waiting for monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve. The Australian dollar, also considered a risk appetite indicator, lost 0.1 percent. Rising trade tensions dampened investor confidence. The EUR weakened as European economic data was worse than expected.

Under an agreement reached Sunday with European Union leaders, Britain will leave the bloc in March with close and ongoing trade ties.

Mario Draghi acknowledges the slowdown in economic activity, but said the ECB maintains the same bond buyback program.

This week traders will also focus on Wednesday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the minutes of the last Fed meeting. They are looking for clues as to how many times the Fed is likely to raise interest rates.

Record Saudi oil production reduced crude oil prices on Tuesday, ahead of the G20 meeting starting in Argentina on Friday and next week's OPEC meeting in Austria. OPEC no longer dominates the market, now the Troika is in charge. Trump, Putin and the Prince of Saudi Arabia are the ones pulling the strings.

Gold fell during Tuesday's Asian session, despite fears of a slowdown in global economic growth and growing pessimism due to the likely worsening of the U.S.-China trade dispute.

European markets are expected to open up Tuesday's session.

Economy at the moment is performing better

The United States was back to normal after Thanksgiving.

On Monday, November 27, it was announced that the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index is increasing. This leaves a good number of months in positive territory, which means that the economy at the moment is performing better than the historical average.

On the other hand, it has been known that General Motors is going to lay off 15% of its workforce in the United States. There is speculation about the closure of some of its plants and it has come to be suspended from trading pending news.

It should also be remembered that a large part of the decreases that have occurred recently were due to negative consumption forecasts, compared to last year, on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. At the moment there are no concrete figures, but everything indicates that they were positive.

Positive day in Europe

Bullish session in the European market on Monday 27 November, where there has been a very wide relaxation in the tension with Italy, in the United Kingdom and by positive corporate operations. There has also been positive retail behaviour.

However, the economic sentiment index of the German IFO Institute for the month of November has been known, where there have been decreases in the general figure, in expectations and under current conditions.

There was a good reception of the favourable vote of the European Union to the agreement of exit of United Kingdom. This was very good for the supersector of automotion and spare parts. It has been one of the most bullish of the day. The end of uncertainty is welcome, because it allows companies to make plans.

Italy has been a point of support, because of comments from the government that they are going to revise the deficit target for the 2019 budgets. This happens after the start of the excessive deficit write-off procedure.

A very important point of support in Europe has been the supersector of telecommunications. It was the best, with a rise of more than 3% , thanks to the information that the European Commission would have approved a corporate operation between DT Telecom and Tele2 without conditions. This is interpreted as support for concentration in the sector.

European Central Bank insists it will stop buying assets in January

The president of the European Central Bank said that the Institution maintains its decision to end its asset purchase program at the end of December, despite the weaker than expected economic data.

Draghi pointed out that nominal inflation rose by a tenth in October to 2.2%. However, underlying inflation, which includes the effect of energy and fresh food prices, remains weak although it has risen from previous lows.

There is good reason to be confident that core inflation will gradually increase as domestic demand and wages rise.

German businessmen's confidence drops in November

German businessmen's confidence fell for the third time in a row in November as Europe's largest economy cooled.

This is reflected in the Ifo, which fell to 102 points from 102.9 the previous month.

The current valuation by German businessmen has dropped to 105.4 points from 106.1 in October. It is their worst reading since September 2017.

Italian government opens up to possible deficit reduction

The Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the 5 Stars Movement, Luigi di Maio, opened up the possibility of reducing the planned deficit of 2.4% of GDP, as requested by the European Commission.

For the Italians what are more important are the objectives that have been set. The subsidy for the unemployed, the reform of the retirement age and the reimbursement of those cheated by the banks are measures they cannot do without.

After Wednesday's rejection of the draft budget for 2019 and Brussels' proposal to open an excessive deficit procedure for its high public debt, the Italian government began to relax its discourse against the European institutions.

Technologies have a double support

They are supported not only by the general rebound of the market, but also by the celebration of the day of consumption par excellence within the Internet.

The Nasdaq takes the initiative and more when it is known that the traffic in the physical stores has decreased with respect to last year.

It seems that Internet sales are becoming more and more important.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-11-28 07:02:24 UTC #385

November 28, 2018

Asian markets operate upwards with an eye on one of the most important G-20 meetings

Most Asian markets rose on Wednesday, November 28, as investors await the important meeting between the U.S. president and the Chinese leader later this week.

China's markets were in positive territory at the end of the first part of the session. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up about one percent. In Australia, the ASX 200 was negative and the shares of the so-called big four Australian banks were trading lower.

The markets are ready for some significant moves. It seems that the G20 meeting is profiled as one of the most important in recent history, although it is not the event investors are looking at, but the meeting between Chinese and American leaders.

Attention is also focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which will take place late Wednesday. The Federal Reserve minutes will appear on Thursday. Investors expect new insights into the Fed's program regarding the speed and number of interest rate hikes.

The dollar remained at two-week highs, as concerns over trade tensions between China and the U.S. prompted the purchase of safe haven currencies. However, the possibility that the Fed could slow its rate hikes due to the global growth slowdown has created uncertainty about its currency.

Oil prices rose one percent during Wednesday's Asian session. They are doing so before next week's OPEC meeting, where they are expected to decide on some production cut. The closure of Britain's largest North Sea oil field for repair also supported prices.

Gold was stable during the Asian session, pressured by a strong dollar after a senior Federal Reserve official confirmed the need for a further increase in interest rates.

European markets are expected to open Wednesday's trading session higher.

U.S.-China relations in the spotlight

On Wall Street, major stock indices rose on Tuesday, November 27, after National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the White House has a lot of communication with the Chinese government at all levels. It comes before the important meeting between Trump and Xi at the G-20 summit in Argentina.

The two leaders are expected to talk about their trade relations after Washington and Beijing applied additional tariffs on billions of dollars in imports. Those measures raised concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth.

Kudlow said Trump believes there is a good chance the two countries can reach an agreement.

European markets close down amid new trade concerns

European equities fell on Tuesday, November 27, with investors awaiting several political developments. Among them is the agreement on the Brexit and Italy's budget plans.

At the same time they would digest President Trump's comments regarding Brexit, which negatively affected the pound. The possibility of an agreement between the United States and China was also taken into account.

The Stoxx 600 pan-European index closed 0.2 percent down, with different sectors pointing in different directions. The automotive and parts sector and Basic Resources were the worst performers.

The health of the banking sector is linked to the profitability of sovereign debt

In a very particular way among the considered peripheral countries, since it is there where the banks have acquired greater percentage of the debt issues of their Treasuries.

Any uncontrolled hike in rates will pose a serious challenge to both governments and banks.

Governments in weaker economies involve their banks more in order to cover Treasury issues. They are agreements not exempt from counterparties, for banks to go to auctions and buy.

It is a mechanism with a positive impact in the short term, but with very considerable consequences and risks in the medium and long term.

The governments of peripheral countries have obtained credit through the disparate increase in debts and their placement among the banks of the country. It is a situation that makes these banks the most in need of financing.

Beware of this rumour!

Europe's car industry is down 2.5% after rumours that Trump will impose 25% tariffs next week.

Automotive and parts is the engine of economic acceleration in Europe, especially in Germany, and is the worst sector of the day.

France to bring fuel taxes into line with oil prices

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, will increase the financing of renewable energies from 5 billion euros per year to 7 billion or 8 billion.

It also put together fuel taxes and fluctuations in the price of oil. The increase in taxes must be adapted to the oil market.

The president took up the slogan, recently launched by his former Minister of Ecological Transition, Nicolas Hulot, that it is necessary to address at the same time 'the end of the world and the end of the month'.

Britain's economy could shrink as a result of Brexit

The brexit agreement could reduce the British economy by 5.5% in a decade.

According to an analysis by the London School of Economics, King's College London and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, both an exit without agreement and the pact reached by the prime minister would have a negative impact on the UK economy.

The British economy will be significantly smaller, in the next ten years, than if the country had remained within the European Union.

It will be because the necessary increase in taxes and the reduction in public spending in the medium and long term.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

yhlasx 2018-11-28 17:16:46 UTC #386

Influence of the Federal Reserve over EVERYTHING is quite astoundingly impressive.

Chema01 2018-11-29 07:19:16 UTC #387

November 29, 2018

Asia rises after Powell's comments boosted U.S. indices

Asian markets traded higher on Thursday, November 29. Following Powell's speech, the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which is expected to help ease U.S.-China trade tensions, is now approaching.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose in the first part of the session. South Korean Kospi rose slightly. In Australia, the ASX 200 was positive, with progress in most sectors. The sub-index for energy, materials and the financial sector were all on the upside.

Powell causes a small earthquake in the markets.

The Dow Jones rose more than 600 points. Market reaction in the U.S. was stimulated by comments from the chairman of the Federal Reserve. In a prudent speech, he hinted that the Fed will try to meet its targets without weighing on the economy. If necessary, they will slow the rate hike. They have also made it clear that they are almost in neutrality and that they have tried to balance the risks.

The minutes of the November 7-8 Federal Reserve meeting, which will be released on Thursday, will now be evaluated with more interest from investors. These are expected to provide more information on interest rate movements in the near future.

Investors are also focusing on the G20 summit, to be held in Buenos Aires between Friday and Saturday, where Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to discuss controversial trade issues.

The US currency depreciated sharply after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates are below neutral and the Central Bank is closer to the end of its rising cycle. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks due to signs of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes amid the slowdown in global growth, peak corporate profits and escalating trade tensions. In addition, Trump has also expressed frustration with interest rate hikes.

On Wednesday, oil prices fell, continuing their downward trend, after US oil inventories rose for the tenth consecutive week. The market is also still nervous about whether producer countries, led by OPEC, will reach an agreement next week on production cuts. Saudi Arabia now says it will not make cuts on its own and Nigeria is not committed to giving new impetus to supply cuts.

Gold hit a two-week low during Thursday's Asian session, following the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech that interest rates are just below neutrality. This assertion calmed investors' concerns about the pace of the rate hikes.

European markets are expected to open Thursday's trading session higher.

Powell causes small earthquake in Markets

Given the reaction, Powell hasn't been as clear as he might seem. He has been quite cautious and you have to look hard to know what has happened.

The market has understood that the Fed is going to move between fulfilling its objectives and not stopping the economy. If necessary, they will stop the rate hikes. He also made it clear that they are almost neutral and that they have tried to balance the risks.

Therefore, if the rises start to slow down the economy they will stop. That is the conclusion that has been drawn and hence the stock markets have risen sharply. In addition, the dollar has fallen and US bonds have been bullish.

The futures on federal funds are rising, giving less possibilities for new interest rate hikes. In the end, Powell seems to have given a cautious and positive speech to the markets.

On Wednesday, November 28, a new home sales figure was released for the month of October in the United States, which was much worse than expected. It remains at a year low and the recovery trend has broken.

Demand is beginning to slacken because financing is too expensive, which at some point will end up taking its toll on the economy.

Session hovering around neutrality in the European market

The session on Wednesday 28 November ended far from the day's highs.

Since the holidays in the United States ended, there has been a lack of criteria in Europe. Monday was positive due to sales estimates at the start of the Christmas campaign, Tuesday Donald Trump was back in the spotlight and Wednesday was the result of Powell's intervention.

In Europe, consumer confidence in Germany is falling more than expected and has just topped off the worsening of other countries such as France and Italy.

If you look inside the market, you see that most of the supersectors in Europe are in negative.

U.S. economy slowing down

Experts warn that growth is unlikely to continue in the last three months of 2018.

The U.S. economy is in good health. The country's Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.5% in the third quarter of the year. The figure has not changed with respect to the initial estimate, although it remains below the forecasts of analysts.

However, although the GDP figure has not changed, the review that has been carried out does show notable changes in the behaviour of some segments of the economy.

For example, state and local governments spent better than expected. Business investment was not as weak as believed. However, the data reveal that consumer spending grew at a slower pace than expected.

Federal Reserve is a bigger problem for the United States than China, says Trump

Donald Trump lunged at the Fed again. He said he is unhappy with the president of the central bank, Jay Powell.

He believes that the gradual rise in interest rates is damaging the national economy.

The U.S. president says he is making trade agreements and yet the Federal Reserve is not acting accordingly.

Dombrovskis tells Italy that the correction presented is not enough

The Vice-President of the European Commission explained that in order to avoid possible sanctions against Italy it is worth a consistent correction and not a decrease of 0.2% of the deficit in comparison with the forecast of 2.4% of the GDP.

It is important for Italy to reconsider its budgets because this also hits the banking system. The situation of the Italian banking system is linked to the general economic situation of the country and there is concern with this systemic sector.

After the presentation of the Budgets, rejected by Brussels, Italy's risk premium has grown a lot. This has an impact on the real economy, access to finance for businesses, consumer credit and the banking system.

A Brexit without an agreement would hurt the British economy more than expected

The gross domestic product would be reduced by 9.3% in 15 years, while the agreement proposed by Theresa May would limit the impact to 3.9%.

In any case, the economy will suffer from any of the possible Brexit scenarios.

The government publishes its analysis when it tries to convince Parliament, and public opinion, about the benefits of the agreement on Brexit that it has negotiated with Brussels and which will be put to a vote in the House of Commons on 11 December next.

The so-called Long-term Economic Analysis states that, in the absence of a bilateral pact, the British state could be forced to borrow an additional 119 billion pounds (134.9 billion euros) by 2035.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

yhlasx 2018-11-29 09:30:29 UTC #388

Seems like we can't go a day without Brexit news mucking up any building sentiment. I am so tired of it. Theresa May must be truly exhausted.

Chema01 2018-11-30 07:29:50 UTC #389

November 30, 2018

Investors look forward to talks between China's leaders and the United States at the G-20

Asia-Pacific markets traded slightly upwards on Friday, November 30, as investors await the meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit. This meeting is expected to help alleviate growing trade tensions between the two countries.

The markets have been agitated amid uncertainty about any kind of trade agreement between Trump and Xi at the G20. Officials from both governments said they are exploring a trade pact that would stop Washington's additional tariffs in exchange for major changes in Beijing's economic policies. A more conciliatory tone between the two leaders could make risky assets respond positively.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was traded almost unchanged. China's markets traded higher. In Australia, the ASX 200 benchmark fell in the first part of the session, with most sectors in decline.

The Asia session follows a bearish final on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones broke a three-day winning streak.

During Friday's Asian trading, the dollar was shaken by investors' nervousness as they waited for the G-20. A truce is desired in the trade war between China and the United States. Also, this week, the dollar was under pressure from expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow down its rate hikes. Despite comments from Federal Reserve officials, there was no sale of dollars on a large scale. The strength of the U.S. economy, the weakening of growth in other areas and the very status of the dollar as a safe haven continue to support this currency.

Oil prices stood firm on Friday, with OPEC and Russia expected to agree on production cuts. However, the increase in supply in the US continues to weigh on prices.

Gold prices remained in a limited range during Friday's Asian session, while the dollar weakened after the US president sent conflicting signals about the prospects of a trade agreement with Beijing.

European markets are expected to open Friday's trading session downwards.

Dow breaks the winning streak

Dow breaks the winning streak of the last three days because of trade concerns.

On Thursday, November 29, U.S. indices closed down, while hopes for a trade agreement between China and the United States remain in the air.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 27.59 points after a three-day winning streak. The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent and also closed lower for the first time in four days. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.25 percent.

Investors are waiting for the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in the G-20.

Session around neutrality in the European market

European indices were undecided on Thursday 29 November ahead of the G20 meeting in Argentina where Trump and Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines in an attempt to improve trade relations.

The Stoxx 600 pan-European index ended provisionally with a 0.20 percent rise at the end of the afternoon, with basic resources among the leading earners.

The FTSE 100, which weighs heavily in the mining and oil sectors, experienced gains, thanks to the recovery of the Brent and the fall of the pound sterling.

Meanwhile, in Europe there is still concern about the 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on the European automotive sector.

Reactions to Powell's statements from the Federal Reserve were noted during the European session. In addition, the Bank of England said that a disorderly exit from the European Union could be more painful for the UK than the global financial crisis.

Soft crashes on Wall Street after Powell's rally

Investors bought aggressively after the Fed Chairman's change of speech.

Jerome Powell commented that interest rates remain low by historical standards, and remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy. In other words, they do not accelerate or slow growth.

The leader varied significantly his comments made last October 3.

After this change in language, which according to some analysts is not as soft as it seems, investors are focusing their attention on the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting.

Europe deflates after the initial euphoria

The change in the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech led to rises of more than 2% on the other side of the Atlantic.

The rises have also occurred in Europe, although the stock markets have subsequently deflated.

Powell said the gradual pace of interest rate hikes has been a risk-balancing exercise and added that there is no predefined path in the Fed's economic policy.

Powell does not stop being pressured by Trump to moderate the rate hike, and he is pushing up equities and down the dollar.

Confidence in the Eurozone and European Union economy falls in November

Consumer and business confidence in the eurozone economy fell two-tenths during November. For the European Union as a whole it fell by eight tenths.

Among the major economies of the single currency, the main setback took place in Italy, immersed in a dispute with the EU executive for its budget plan for 2019.

However, it increased in France, Holland and Germany.

Trump's good, calculated words on the China agreement

The G20 meeting will be held this weekend. The meeting between Trump and Xi will take place there.

We'll see what happens, because China wants to play the role that the United States did before the era of Donald Trump.

Just as sales in the markets were accelerating, Trump says they are 'close to closing something' with China on trade, but he doesn't know if he wants to.

This has encouraged the market and generated volatility.

In the current situation you could see less interest rate hikes than in the past, which has been very grateful to the market.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-03 07:12:36 UTC #390

December 3, 2018

Asian markets were bullish after China and the United States agreed to postpone further tariff increases

Shares in Asia rose on Monday, December 3, after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary trade truce between the United States and China.

China's markets recorded strong gains at the end of the first part of the session. The moves came after a new reading of economic activity in China, the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, which showed that manufacturers' activity grew slightly in November, to 50.2 points, compared with the previous month.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose. In South Korea, the Kospi was bullish. In Australia, the ASX 200 jumped higher with almost all sectors in positive territory. Stocks of major mining companies recorded strong gains.

The moves in Asia came after Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump agreed to a momentary pause in the escalation of the trade war between the two economic powers. This is probably the best scenario the markets expected after the meeting of Trump and Xi. The American president has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will maintain tariffs on products worth $200 billion at a rate of 10 percent and will not increase them to 25 percent as he had announced. Negotiators will continue to work on persistent disagreements over technology transfer, intellectual property and agriculture.

During Monday's Asian trading session, the dollar weakened as investors' demand for riskier assets increased. China and the United States will try to bridge their differences through new talks aimed at reaching agreements within 90 days. Riskier currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, rose as safe-haven currencies, such as the yen, weakened. This indicates a clear trend towards risk for investors.

Oil prices rose during Monday's Asian session after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day truce in their trade war and before this week's meeting of the OPEC Producers' Club, where they are expected to agree on supply cuts.

During Monday's Asian trading day, gold advanced, despite a lessening of the intensity of U.S.-China disputes.

European markets are expected to open up Monday's session.

US stock market futures skyrocketed

Dow futures had a gain of more than 450 points after the Trump-Xi meeting.

US stock market futures skyrocketed after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day ceasefire in the trade war.

Nasdaq-100 futures, with many technology companies selling to China, also rose sharply.

Oil and copper futures were up, hoping that a possible trade agreement between China and the United States would boost global economic growth.

The United States agreed to leave tariffs of more than $200 billion on Chinese products at 10 percent. If after 90 days the two countries fail to reach an agreement, that rate will rise to 25 percent, according to the White House. Trade negotiations will address technology transfer and intellectual property.

European markets closed down

European stocks lost value at the end of the week as political leaders gathered at the G20 meeting in Argentina.

By the end of Friday 30 November, the pan-European Stoxx 600 had fallen by 0.25 percent. The weekly balance was 0.92 percent negative.

Cars and basic resources fell the most, with investors focused on the G20 summit.

The FTSE 100 in London closed down, dragged down by the high number of mining shares that lost value during the session.

Caution and falls in the markets before the start of the G-20 summit

On the sidelines of the summit will be one of the most important meetings of recent times: the meeting between the president of the United States and the president of China.

It is the last opportunity of the year to bring together positions on trade tensions and the markets seem ready to welcome it, even if it comes in the form of a slight rapprochement of the parties.

It seems out of the question that the quotation will end up further clouding relations.

The G20 will also focus on other aspects, such as the role of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It should be remembered that Trump has cancelled his planned meeting with Vladimir Putin for the latter reason.

Inflation in the euro area moderates

The year-on-year inflation rate in the eurozone was 2% in November. It is two tenths below the October figure and is due to the moderation in the rise in energy and fresh food prices.

Energy prices rose 9.1% year-on-year in November, compared to a rise of 10.7% in the previous month. Fresh food prices rose by 1.8% year-on-year, three tenths less than in October.

The year-on-year inflation rate for services in November stood at 1.3% instead of 1.5% in the previous month. The rise in non-energy industrial goods remained at 0.4%.

China's manufacturing industry slows in November until it almost shrinks

For the third month in a row, Chinese manufacturing has seen a slowdown in growth.

The Purchasing PMI remains at 50 points. It is two tenths less than in October and just on the threshold of contraction. The data shows that Chinese industry continues on a downward path.

Growth in Chinese manufactures stagnated in November, its worst performance since the July 2016 contraction.

Deutsche Bank marks historic lows after office registration

Deutsche Bank continues to plummet on the stock exchange on the second consecutive day of registrations at its headquarters.

An operation consisting of some 170 police officers, prosecutors and inspectors from the German treasury searched the offices where written and electronic business documents were seized.

The Entity has been splashed in an alleged money laundering scheme related to Panama's papers.

After evaluating the data available from the so-called 'Papers of Panama', the suspicion arose that Deutsche Bank helped its clients found offshore companies in tax havens.

The shares of the Frankfurt-based bank plummeted sharply on Friday. So far this year, the company has accumulated a 48% drop in the stock market.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-04 07:07:56 UTC #391

December 4, 2018

Asian markets fall mostly as sentiment fades over the lukewarm U.S.-China trade agreement

Shares in Asia fell on Tuesday, December 4, amid uncertainty about the future of U.S.-China trade relations.

China's markets remained virtually unchanged at the end of the morning session. The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 1.28 percent in the second part of the session. In South Korea, the Kospi fell by 0.72 percent. In Australia, the ASX 200 fell 0.92%, with almost all sectors in negative territory.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. Philip Lowe said the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy. Further progress is expected in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target, although it is likely to be gradual.

The dollar fell during the Asian session, as U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-month lows. Investors are betting that the Fed will slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. The dollar's weakness comes against the backdrop of a temporary truce in the US-China trade dispute, which has boosted investors' confidence in riskier currencies. Currencies such as the Chinese yuan, which were hit in the US-China trade war, are expected to strengthen against the dollar in the coming weeks.

The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bills fell to 2.94 percent. It is its lowest level since mid-September. The difference in yield between the two-year and ten-year United States narrowed to its lowest level since July 2007.

The British pound has recorded losses for three consecutive weeks, as traders bet that Theresa May will not be able to approve her Brexit deal in Parliament on December 11.

Oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday, amid the supply cuts agreed by OPEC and the forced reduction in Canadian production.

Gold rose sharply during Tuesday's Asian session, after hitting highs more than a month ago. It does so as the dollar recedes after the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary truce in their trade dispute.

European markets are expected to open Tuesday's trading session lower.

Confusion over U.S.-China trade agreement

The main Wall Street indices recorded gains on Monday, December 3. The moves came after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day postponement for the imposition of new tariffs in a trade war that has weighed heavily on world markets for most of 2018.

There have been different interpretations of the agreement at the White House and in Beijing. Investors have been left with more questions than answers. Perhaps the most important question is whether the United States and China can resolve their differences in 90 days. It remains to be seen who will lead the US delegation in future trade talks with Beijing.

More signals are needed if we are to maintain the feeling that a trade truce is actually taking place.

Mining companies and the automotive sector rise in Europe

European indices recovered on Monday 3rd November after President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping negotiated a temporary truce.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose by more than 1.6 percent during the first part of the session, with almost all sectors in positive territory. Germany's DAX index led the gains.

Stocks of Europe's basic resources, with a strong exposure to China, rose almost 5 percent.

The automotive and parts sector was up more than 4 percent. This sector has suffered significant losses so far this year, amid fears of tariff wars and slower growth in car sales.

China agrees to cut and eliminate tariffs on U.S. cars

At present, the tariffs that Beijing charges to cars made in the United States are around 40%.

Both presidents have declared a 90-day truce in the trade war. This is the first concrete measure announced by Trump after the meeting between the two leaders at the G20 summit.

They pledged to continue negotiations to find a way out of the open trade war between the two economic powers.

The agreement includes Trump's commitment to suspend for 90 days its plan to raise from 10% to 25% U.S. tariffs on Chinese products, worth $200 billion.

In exchange, the Chinese leader promised to substantially increase purchases of agricultural, energy, industrial and other products from the United States.

United States, Mexico and Canada sign new trade agreement

It is the agreement known as T-MEC, which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA. It has yet to be ratified by the Congresses of the three countries.

U.S. Foreign Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexico's Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo, and Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland have signed the pact in Buenos Aires.

The G20 defends globalised trade and signs its climate commitment without Trump

The presidents of the G20 countries, including US President Donald Trump, agreed on the need to revitalize the international trading system.

In addition, with the disagreement of the US president, they expressed their support for the Paris Agreement against climate change.

The summit ended with more agreements than disagreements.

In the final document, of six pages and 31 points and with most of the cases without delving into the substance of the problems, the G20 recognizes that the World Trade Organization does not meet its objectives and bet on its reform.

The reform to save the euro remains at a minimum

The economy and finance ministers of the 19 countries that share a single currency will meet on Monday to certify few agreements on the euro.

The original idea was to agree an ambitious reform, to correct the defects on the origin of the euro zone.

There were several major issues to discuss: the creation of a safety net for the Banking Union, the transformation of the rescue fund into something more ambitious, the establishment of a budget for the euro area and the development of a European guarantee fund for bank deposits.

Only in the first is there a principle of agreement.

The safety net would be incorporated as a new tool of the MEDE and would have up to 60,000 million euros at its disposal.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-05 06:52:04 UTC #392

December 5, 2018

Asian equities stumble after Wall Street crash

Shares in Asia were trading lower on Wednesday, December 5. Investors are worried about a possible economic slowdown and the fragile truce in the US-China trade war.

Chinese markets remained cautious at the end of the first part of the session. The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which measures economic activity in China's services sector, rose to 53.8 in November. It is its highest level in five months. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell at the end of the session. Losses were also seen in South Korea. In Australia, the ASX 200 was down, with most sectors in negative. These moves came after Australia's Gross Domestic Product data for the third quarter was below expectations.

Wall Street showed a negative tone, with volume higher than usual. The US bond market sent worrying signals about economic growth, adding to fears that the Federal Reserve could put its rate hike cycle on hold.

The yield on the three-year Treasury bond outperformed its five-year counterparty on Monday. When there is a reversal of the so-called yield curve, with short-term yields above longer-term rates, a recession can occur. But it often comes years after the signal that initiates it.

The Australian dollar fell against the dollar after worse than expected economic growth. The gain registered after the commercial truce between China and the United States is thus lost.

Oil prices reduced their gains on Tuesday, amid a very volatile situation. It is feared that demand will decline and that Russia will continue to be an obstacle to reaching an agreement on production cuts. On Thursday in Vienna there will be a meeting of OPEC producers and agreements are expected to cut production by 1.3 million barrels per day.

Spot gold rose, but palladium rose stronger, up to 2.3 percent. Palladium reached a record on Tuesday, driven by speculative interest and shortages of metal supplies from the auto catalyst. It has surpassed the price of the ounce of gold, which reached a peak of more than five weeks. For now, palladium is still in demand for industrial uses but speculators are increasing their exposure to it, as it has risen 49 percent since mid-August.

European markets are expected to open Wednesday's session downwards.

Falls on Wall Street

Falls on Wall Street as commercial truce doubts arise.

Wall Street recorded moderate declines on Tuesday, December 4, after Monday's rises due to a trade truce between China and the U.S. that the market now doubts about.

Donald Trump himself confirmed on Twitter that the negotiation period has already begun and will last at least 90 days. The president has been open to reaching an agreement, but has also recalled that he is a strong advocate of tariffs.

The New York Stock Exchange will remain closed this Wednesday for the state funeral in memory of former President George Bush.

The market begins to worry about the situation of the yield curve

Was a negative session in Europe on Tuesday December 4, where the protagonism is in the distrust for the fragile agreement between the United States and China.

There are some interest rates in the United States that have been inversed, specifically between two and five years. However, what would make the market really nervous is that the two-year return would be above the ten-year return, which has not yet happened.

A lot of the stocks that benefited on Tuesday have had problems. The automotive and parts supersector was the worst of the day. This sector has problems, because the companies' prospects for 2019 are not good as they have to make many efforts to adapt to the new regulations.

Problems also in the banking sector, where the damage has been focused mainly in Spain and Italy. An agreement has been reached in Europe to change the regulation of the banking sector. De Guindos warns of the danger that this new regulation will have a part, sales of debt assets that could clash with international regulation.

Nerves in the banking sector due to the new regulation

The super banking sector falls by 1.1% and follows the overall bearish market movement.

There seems to be an agreement to change the rules of capital reserves. This always put fear in investors.

In addition, there is De Guindos' warning that the planned reform for troubled loans risks being considered incompatible with international standards.

Italian and Spanish banks are the most damaged.

Opinion of the European judiciary to the effect that London can still unilaterally revoke Brexit

The United Kingdom could still unilaterally reverse its decision to leave the European Union.

Article 50 admits unilateral revocation of the intention to withdraw from the Union, until such time as the withdrawal agreement is concluded.

The British Parliament is preparing to vote next week on the divorce settlement reached between London and Brussels. To date, very few Members publicly support the document and everything indicates that the vote will be negative.

OECD inflation rebounded in October to its highest level since 2011

The annual inflation rate of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development was 3.1% in October. It is two tenths above the previous month's price increase and represents its highest reading since November 2011.

The increase in prices recorded in October is due to the greater year-on-year rise in energy prices. Food also became more expensive, although two tenths less than in September.

The biggest price increases in October corresponded to Turkey and Mexico. The smallest increases were seen in Denmark and Ireland.

Apple crashes after HSBC recommendation clipping

Apple shares fall 2% on Wall Street, after analysts of the British bank HSBC have cut their recommendation, to maintain from buy, and its target price to 200 dollars.

The company led by Tim Cook must face the reality that the global mobile market is saturated.

iPhone's iconic growth is almost complete. The Company's revenues are only supported by higher sales prices and the development of services.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-06 08:13:27 UTC #393

December 6, 2018

Global sales that are also noticeable in Asia

Asian stocks are down on Thursday, December 6, continuing the downturn in markets around the world before the expected meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

China's markets suffered losses. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell. South Korea's Kospi also showed negative territory, with Samsung Electronics' shares falling sharply. In Australia, the ASX 200 lost ground, with all sectors showing a mixed tone. The energy sub-index fell before Thursday's OPEC meeting.

The dollar fell against the Japanese yen, as risk aversion was reflected in equity markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Global equity markets have been shaken, and the dollar has fallen this week, after reversing part of the US yield curve.

Added to Thursday's nerves was the arrest in Canada of a senior executive of Chinese technology giant Huawei Technologies, which stoked fears of a new outbreak of tensions between China and the United States at a time when both sides are resuming trade negotiations. That arrest could represent a new frontier in U.S.-China relations. Another Chinese handset manufacturer, ZTE, saw its Hong Kong shares fall 5.94 percent. Both Huawei and ZTE have restrictions on selling telecommunications equipment in the United States because they affect national security.

Oil prices fell along with Thursday's weak stock markets. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the OPEC producer group meeting in Vienna, where they are expected to cut supply in order to drain the excess oil that has lowered crude oil prices by 30 percent since October.

Gold rose on Thursday, while risk aversion weighed on the dollar and palladium remained higher than gold.

European markets are expected to open Thursday's trading session lower.

Declining markets

Global financial markets fell to last week's lows on Wednesday, December 5, amid renewed trade concerns.

U.S. markets closed on Wednesday as a sign of mourning for the death of former President George H.W. Bush. However, the effect of Tuesday's Wall Street turmoil was felt in Europe and Asia.

U.S.-China relations will remain contentious after the fragile agreement between the two superpowers. In addition, officials from the United States and other major economies have often criticized China for its slowness in negotiations and failure to meet commitments.

American officials now face the difficult task of developing an agreement that is acceptable to the Chinese. It will be an agreement that also involve concessions important enough to be attacked by the toughest elements of the Trump administration.

European stock markets moderate declines

On Wednesday 5 December the European markets were weighed down by a number of uncertainties that have not yet cleared up: approval of the Brexit agreement by the British parliament and a reduction in the budget deficit forecast that Italy is going to present to the European Union.

The fear of a global economic recession and mistrust of the trade truce agreed between China and the United States remains.

In addition to the trade war, the flattening of the US interest rate curve, in the 2 to 5 year debt tranche, is interpreted as a harbinger of global economic slowdown. One could even speak of recession, which intensified sales on Tuesday in the world's main Stock Exchange.

U.S. markets closed on Wednesday, as a sign of mourning for the death of former President George H.W. Bush. However, the effect of Tuesday's Wall Street turmoil was felt in Europe and Asia.

Years of cheap money

The European Central Bank's monetary policy makers are discussing ways of detoxifying the euro zone from years of easy money.

The talks showed that interest rate setters are starting to come up with ideas to ease the transition. These include raising only the interest rate on bank deposits and offering multi-year loans at permanently variable rates.

These ideas are designed to avoid a liquidity constraint feared by bankers and investors in southern Europe.

The debate is at an early stage and is unlikely to be presented at the Governing Council meeting of the ECB on 13 December.

Other decisions will be left until 2019. These focus on the issue of liquidity, which is unevenly distributed throughout the euro area.

Eurozone private activity moderated in November and sows doubts about GDP

The growth of private sector activity in the euro area decelerated last November. It is a consequence of the deterioration observed in Germany and Italy, while Spain and France increased the rate of expansion.

The Eurozone PMI Composite Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 52.7, its worst reading since September 2016.

Among the eurozone's major economies, Spain recorded its best figure in five months, with a PMI of 53.9 points. France climbed to 54.2, its best reading in three months. In Germany growth slowed to 47-month lows, with a composite PMI of 52.3 points. Italy remained in recessive territory, with a PMI of 49.3.

China hopes to reach a trade agreement with the United States

China agrees to cut and eventually eliminate tariffs on U.S. cars.

China says the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart last weekend was very successful.

The economic and commercial teams of both countries will work actively during the next 90 days, following the calendar and roadmap established after the meeting of the two presidents.

Retail trade rises in Eurozone and European Union in October

Retail sales rose by 0.3% in the euro area in October and by 0.1% in the EU.

In September retail sales volume declined by 0.5% in the 19 euro area countries and by 0.3% in the 28.

The increase in the euro area and the European Union was mainly due to increases in motor fuels and in food, beverages and tobacco. Non-food products declined.

On a country-by-country basis, their retail trade volume increased further in Slovenia, Portugal and Austria. The most significant falls occurred in Finland, Denmark and Sweden.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-07 08:09:44 UTC #394

December 7, 2018

Asian markets take a breath after days of downturns

Asian equities rose on Friday, December 7, but investors are cautious about a report suggesting that the Federal Reserve may consider a slower-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes.

Chinese markets rose slightly at the end of the first part of the session. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 0.47 percent at the end. In South Korea, the Kospi gained almost 0.3 percent. The ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.38 percent, with almost all sectors in positive territory.

On Friday, the dollar managed to recover in the Asian market, while speculation was that a further interest rate hike at the end of December would be the last before the Federal Reserve presses the pause button. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is considering a wait-and-see attitude.

Investors are concerned about falls in U.S. Treasury yields and the reversal of the yield curve, which indicates a sharp economic slowdown or even a recession in the future.

Attention is now focused on November's Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment and wage data to be released on Friday. One of the strongest parts of the U.S. economy has been the labour market. If any cracks are discovered, they will negatively affect the US dollar.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ended Thursday's meeting at its headquarters in Vienna without announcing the decision to cut the supply of crude oil. Now they extend their meeting to Friday, waiting for Russia to give the go-ahead. Oil prices fell on Friday, due to OPEC's decision to delay its final conclusion on production cuts.

During Friday's Asian trading session, gold rose sharply to its best price in 15 days. It did so as the dollar weakened on speculation of an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle.

European markets are expected to open mixed on Friday.

Wall Street recovers at closing

Wall Street recovers at closing thanks to The Wall Street Journal's reports on the Federal Reserve.

Wall Street has reduced the red numbers in the closing stages of Thursday's December 6 session, after WSJ has reported that the Fed intends to change its approach to 2019. It is now said that they could bring their rate hike policy at a slower pace than expected.

This information has served to counteract the falls due to the arrest of the financial director of Huawei, at the behest of the United States, and which calls into question the signing of an agreement between China and the United States.

Meng Wanzhou, financial director of Huawei, vice president of the firm and also daughter of the founder, was arrested last Saturday in Canada, just when Trump and Jinping agreed to the commercial truce. The Chinese Embassy in Canada has already called for her release and has strongly protested her arrest. All indications are that she could be extradited to the United States this Friday, which would significantly increase diplomatic tension.

European stock markets have suffered a new setback

European markets close on Thursday 6 December at their lowest level in two years.

European stocks plummeted amid fears of slowing growth, falling oil prices, a new outbreak of tensions between the world's two largest economies and a lack of agreement at Brexit.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell more than 3.3 percent, with all sectors and major exchanges in negative territory. The index stood at 342 points, marking a two-year low. It was the worst daily percentage drop for the STOXX 600 since Brexit.

The employment figure from the consulting firm ADP has shown the creation of 179,000 jobs during the month of November, slightly below the 195,000 expected by consensus. This figure is considered a leading indicator of Friday's U.S. Government Employment Report, for which 205,000 jobs are expected to be created.

Apple earns the same as Microsoft, Amazon and Google together

Investors who bet on Apple's rivals do not do so by aspiring to make a higher profit. They base their judgement on technology trends and the growth rate, i.e. those that dominate the cloud business.

Amazon became the most valuable firm on Monday, thanks to a conference in which it boasted of Amazon Web Services, its division dedicated to this service.

At Microsoft, his goal is to reach Amazon since Satya Nadella replaced Steve Ballmer as CEO of the firm in 2014. To this end, they continue to drive the growth of Azure, their own cloud service. Since Nadella took office, Microsoft's share price has gone from 37 dollars to 110 dollars per share.

More liquidity and less U.S. private debt

That's the recommendation that boutiques of funds are giving to their most conservative clients by 2019. According to managers, the credit ball in the United States is a bubble and is back at maximums, so they ask for caution.

It's crazy that the ten-year German bond is trading below 0.4%. There is still fear of the euro's break-up, which continues to be hampered by the Anglo-Saxon view, which is very negative on the euro.

36% of the different bonds that make up the debt curve of the main developed countries still have a negative interest.

Gold is no longer the most valuable precious metal has been overthrown by palladium

This is a rare metal, so it may not be possible to increase production immediately to meet industry demand.

Demand for palladium has picked up in recent months, so much so that this raw material has reached record levels after being the most prized precious metal this year. This is only because consumers are moving away from diesel and opting for petrol vehicles, which have a higher volume of palladium.

Palladium accumulates four consecutive months with increases in its price, while the price of gold is at a 2002 low.

Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft play a billion dollars in the cloud

After a long decade of dominance, Apple faces more competition than ever before. The manufacturer of the iPhone, which in recent weeks has reached the coveted trillion dollars in capitalization, has other technological giants like Amazon, Google and Microsoft in front of it.

‘The goal is to colonize the cloud’.

Microsoft snatched the title of Apple's most valuable technology last Friday. This Monday, it was Amazon that was doing itself the honour of being the most valuable company in the United States, to end up giving in again to Apple on Tuesday.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-10 06:25:32 UTC #395

December 10, 2018

Asian indices fall after China's weak economic data

Asian equities traded lower on Monday, December 10, following significantly weaker than expected Chinese data.

Mainland Chinese markets plummeted. China reported significantly weaker than expected exports and imports, pointing to weak domestic and international demand. Beijing is now considering further measures to boost growth.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 1.86 percent in the first part of the session. South Korean Kospi also fell by about 1 percent. The ASX 200 fell by 1.9 percent in the end, with almost all sectors posting losses.

Geopolitical problems are once again influencing the markets this week, as the Christmas season is already underway.

U.S. non-agricultural payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month, below the forecast of 200,000 jobs. Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers have taken a cautious approach to the economic outlook, possibly marking a turning point in their monetary policy. Investors are increasingly concerned that rising tensions with China could affect the US economy.

The dollar fell against the yen and the euro during Monday's Asian trading session after U.S. payrolls suggested that the Federal Reserve could stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. The British pound is also on the defensive, as Theresa May's agreement to leave the European Union appears to be rejected by Parliament on Tuesday. The Chinese yuan fell after China's weak trade and inflation data over the weekend.

Oil prices rose on Monday, expanding profits on Friday when the OPEC producers' club and some unaffiliated producers, such as Russia, agreed to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day starting in January. Despite this, the outlook for next year remains weak due to the economic slowdown. The reduction will be 800,000 barrels per day for OPEC members and 400,000 barrels per day for countries not affiliated to the group.

Gold reached a five-month high during Monday's Asian trading as U.S. labour data was disappointing, generating speculation that the Federal Reserve could stop raising interest rates sooner than expected.

European markets are expected to open Monday's trading session lower.

Dow drops more than 500 points

Dow drops more than 500 points and eliminates year's gains.

U.S. indices dropped sharply on Friday, December 7, concluding what has been a wild week for Wall Street. A weaker than expected employment report and trade tensions between China and the US caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall 558.72 points.

The S&P 500 fell 2.3 percent and also became negative for the year as a whole. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.05 percent.

Stocks of technology companies led the fall. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-Parent Alphabet are down. Apple shares also fell 3.6 percent, erasing its year's earnings after Morgan Stanley cut its target price by weakening iPhone sales.

During the week the major indices fell more than 4 percent, making it the worst week since March.

European Stocks slightly rebound on Friday, December 7

Europe rises after falling to two-year lows in the previous session. However, gains were limited by the lack of momentum on Wall Street and Asia.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed above 0.7 percent, with all sectors and major exchanges in positive territory.

European technology stocks were among the best. Nokia and Ericsson traded more than 3 percent above previous sessions.

U.S. trade deficit grows in October

The US trade deficit increased by 1.7% in October to $55.5 billion.

The figure was hampered by an increase of 0.2% in imports, which reached 266,500 million dollars, while exports recorded a decline of 0.1% and remained at 211,000 million.

This is the largest trade deficit of the United States recorded in a month of October since 2008.

Particularly striking is the figure for trade with China, which, despite the trade war initiated, reached a historic deficit of $ 43.1 billion for Americans and rising.

Reduced job creation

According to ADP data, U.S. companies created 179,000 new jobs in November.

That's 10.5% less than the same month in 2017 and 20.4% below the 225,000 jobs that the U.S. private sector was able to generate in October of this year.

Small businesses were responsible for the creation of 46,000 net jobs in November, while medium-sized businesses generated 119,000 jobs and large companies provided 13,000 jobs.

Weak employment data on Friday suggests that the Federal Reserve could stop raising interest rates sooner than expected.

Trading Trump

Wall Street takes action against the stress generated by White House comments.

JPMorgan Chase & Co's trading desk is not buying what the U.S. president was selling this week.

Trump's bold comments don't always hold. The distrust of the Bank's operating table reveals a dilemma: how seriously the White House's comments should be taken.

In addition, market volatility has increased in 2018, in part because of the confusion generated by comments from Washington officials.

The incongruity itself shakes markets and affects investor sentiment. Still, the effect of the White House on markets is hard to avoid.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a common measure of perceived fear in the markets, has risen nearly 90 percent this year.

Yield curve reversal

U.S. Treasury bonds are bonds, or debt, sold by the Federal Government.

Most pay a fixed interest rate for a fixed period of time, ranging from one month to 30 years.

They are considered the safest securities in the world because they are backed by the full confidence and credit of the U.S. government.

Yields are a measure of the annualized return an investor can expect to receive by holding a government bond until maturity.

When bond prices rise, yields fall.

What is the yield curve?

It is a graph of the yields of all Treasury maturities. Under normal circumstances, it has an arched, upward slope, because bond investors expect to be compensated more by assuming the added risk of owning bonds with longer maturities.

Rarely does part, or all, of the curve cease to be tilted upwards. This occurs when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields. It is called 'yield curve reversal'.

Curve reversal is a classic sign that a recession is coming.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-11 06:58:33 UTC #396

December 11, 2018

Asian Indices mixed after volatile Wall Street session

Asia's shares were mixed on Tuesday, December 11, following a busy session on Wall Street in which the Dow recovered from a 507-point drop.

Mainland Chinese markets made gains at the end of the first part of the session. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell slightly. Softbank stocks rose sharply. South Korean Kospi advanced, accompanied by the rise of LG Electronics. Australia's ASX 200 lost most of its previous gains, although most sectors made gains.

The Brexit vote in the British Parliament will finally not take place. Theresa May has decided to postpone it because the result would have been very negative for the agreement reached with the European Union. What will happen now is uncertain. The European Union has already stated that it has no intention of negotiating further, although it would be willing to draw up an annex to save Theresa May. An emergency meeting has been called for this week. Britain now faces a Brexit without an agreement, a last-minute agreement or another referendum to exit the European Union.

Meanwhile, the pound is subject to exaggerated movements in its price, in all related pairs. This instability makes it totally unadvisable to trade this currency in the coming days. The pound hit a 20-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, after the British Prime Minister postponed voting on her agreement with the European Union. At the same time, there is not enough demand for the yen and the euro, which are now a less safe haven.

Oil prices regained some of their losses from the previous day, when the Libyan National Petroleum Company declared a force majeure stop in the drilling of the El Sharara oil field, which was confiscated over the weekend by a group of local militia. Despite this, overall sentiment about oil prices remains weak amid concerns about global stock markets and doubts that expected production cuts will not be enough to curb oversupply.

Gold remained stable during Tuesday's Asian session, supported by the hope that the Federal Reserve could halt its rate hike cycle sooner than previously thought. However, a stronger dollar and concern about the Brexit weigh on the precious metal.

European markets are expected to open mixed Tuesday.

Wall Street recovers from falls

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was able to erase a 507 point drop at the end of Monday's session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced slightly. At its lowest point of the day, the S&P 500 fell below its October low.

Shares of technology companies rose sharply on all fronts.

Facebook shares rose 3.2 percent, while Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet rose more than 0.6 percent. Apple, for its part, erased a decline of more than 2 percent.

Apple's shares initially fell, after a Chinese court issued a court order against the iPhone's manufacturer. It is unclear how the injunction will affect Apple's sales in China. Qualcomm claims the dispute prohibits the import and sale of Apple's iPhone in China.

European markets close with almost 2% downwards

European equities fell on Monday, December 10, due to concerns about slowing economic growth. The Stoxx 600 pan-European index ended provisionally with a decline of around 1.8 percent, with all sectors in negative territory.

The vote on Brexit in the British Parliament will finally not take place. May has decided to postpone it because the outcome would have been too adverse to the agreement reached with the European Union.

It is uncertain what will happen now. The European Union has already stated that it does not intend to negotiate any more, although they would be prepared to draw up an annex to save May. An emergency meeting has been called for this week.

In the meantime the pound is subject to exaggerated movements in its price, in all the related pairs. This instability makes it totally unadvisable to trade this currency in the coming days.

Vote on Brexit in the British Parliament

Finally, it will not be held.

May has decided to postpone it because the outcome would have been very adverse to the agreement reached with the European Union.

It is uncertain what will happen now. The European Union has already stated that it does not intend to negotiate any more, although they would be prepared to draw up an annex to save May.

An emergency meeting has been called for this week.

In the meantime the pound is subject to exaggerated movements in its price, in all the related pairs. This instability makes it totally unadvisable to trade this currency in the coming days.

If the vote is lost

The UK may enter unknown territory, according to British Government sources, if the House of Commons rejects Theresa May's deal with the European Union.

JPMorgan summarizes the possible scenarios in three outcomes: Brexit agreed, which gives a 50% chance. Backwards, with 40% of options. Chaotic brexit, with a 10% chance.

According to some experts, all potential routes lead to early elections, because the current Parliament will not agree on the best solution. These elections can be a de facto referendum.

One scenario that is handled in political circles is that May resigns from Tuesday's vote in the expectation of a heavy defeat and tries to renegotiate again with Brussels.

Japan's GDP fell in the third quarter and has its worst figure in four years

The Japanese economy contracted by 2.5% in the third quarter of the year in annual terms. This is a much worse fall than expected.

The first estimate of the figure pointed to a decline of 1.2%, the largest drop in Japan's GDP since the second quarter of 2014.

Between July and September, the world's third largest economy experienced a GDP contraction of 0.6% in quarterly terms. This is double the fall forecast in the preliminary estimate.

This is mainly the result of natural disasters, which forced the paralysis of the country's factories. Trade tensions also played a role.

Household consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the Japanese economy, also fell slightly.

Corporate capital investment fell by 2.8% compared to the previous quarter. It is worse than expected.

U.S. debt fears recession

The yield curve, which reflects the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields, fell to its lowest level in eleven years in the United States.

When short-term bond yields outperform long-term bonds, some investors see this as an indicator that monetary policy is too tough. The reversal of the yield curve points to a recession within the next twelve to eighteen months.

The difference between two- and ten-year Treasury yields fell to less than 12 basis points last Tuesday. It is its lowest level since June 2007.

As a result, less interest rate hikes are expected in the US next year.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-12 07:21:06 UTC #397

December 12, 2018

Asian car manufacturers rise after it is known that China will reduce its tariffs on car imports

Asian indices rose on Wednesday, Dec. 12, with carmakers in China, Japan and South Korea in positive territory following reports that China will reduce tariffs on U.S.-made cars to 15 percent from the current 40 percent.

Japanese equities led the region's gains. The Nikkei 225 rose more than 2%. Automakers were among the best. In South Korea the Kospi gained 1.11 percent. The shares of South Korea's major automakers also skyrocketed. In Australia, the ASX 200 index rose 1.25 percent.

The same positive sentiment was seen in Chinese car stocks. Import tariffs on cars in other countries are currently 15 percent. The reduction from 40 percent to 15 percent in China puts them at the same level as other countries. China had already reduced import tariffs on all foreign-made cars and car parts from 25 percent to 15 percent in July this year. But Beijing subsequently raised tariffs on cars imported from the United States to 40 percent, amid growing tensions with Washington.

Asia's gains followed another volatile session on Wall Street, amid continuing uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the possibility of a Washington shutdown.

The dollar remained at last month's highs. The U.S. currency rallied as long-term Treasury yields rose from a three-month low. In addition to higher Treasury yields, the weakening of the pound is giving a key boost to the dollar. The yuan strengthened on Tuesday with news that Beijing and Washington were making progress in their trade talks.

Oil prices rose more than 1 percent in Wednesday's Asian session. They have been driven by expectations that a supply cut would stabilize markets and by easing US-Chinese trade tensions. Declining Libyan oil exports, after the local militia seized the country's largest oil field, are also driving up prices.

Gold remained stable on Wednesday, supported by expectations of a lower rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year and while palladium was traded at a higher price than gold.

European markets are expected to open mixed on Wednesday.

China is moving toward lowering tariffs

Dow closes down after beating 500 points in another volatile session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower on Tuesday, December 11, after alternating gains and losses throughout the session.

At its day high, the Dow climbed to 368 points but eventually fell at the end 53.02 points. The S&P 500 also closed lower, while the Nasdaq Composite rose slightly.

Initially, stocks rose more than 1 percent on all fronts, amid signs that U.S.-China trade relations could be improving.

China is moving toward lowering tariffs on U.S.-made cars. They will drop to 15 percent, from 40 percent.

European Markets close higher but Pound remains at 20-month lows

European actions rebounded on Tuesday 11 December, as the world's two largest economies tried to move into the next phase of trade negotiations.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose by around 1.8 percent, with all sectors and major exchanges in positive territory. Europe's basic resource sector, with its strong exposure to China, was the best performer.

Overall sentiment remained relatively fragile, amid growing political turmoil over the Brexit agreement. The British Prime Minister abruptly postponed Monday's vote. This caused the pound to drop to its lowest level in 20 months. Theresa May is preparing to face a leadership challenge from her own party.

German economic sentiment improved slightly in December, the ZEW research institute reported Tuesday, but warned that fourth-quarter growth would be weaker than expected.

Wall Street gains after bouncing off major media

Wall Street reports 1% gains after bouncing back from major technical support on Monday.

In the case of the Dow Jones, the index lost 24,000 points in the worst times of the session, but finally closed positively in its biggest intraday recovery since last April.

Investors buy after China has confirmed that it is considering lowering tariffs on U.S. cars. They will fall from the current 40% to 15%. The ultimate goal is to reduce the escalation of the tariff dispute.

Both sides exchanged views on the implementation of the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries at their G20 meeting.

As Bloomberg has leaked, officials want to keep out of the negotiations the incident of the detention in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's financial director.

OECD unemployment rate hits record lows in October

The unemployment rate of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stood at 5.2% in October. It represents the lowest level of the entire historical series.

However, the number of unemployed among OECD economies rose in October to 33.179 billion.

The lowest unemployment rates in October were in the Czech Republic, ahead of Japan and Iceland.

The highest levels of unemployment were seen in Greece and Spain.

German investor confidence rises in december

Investor confidence rose in Germany in December, although economic expectations are negative and well below the long-term average.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research reported that its investor confidence index rose 6.6 points in December.

The assessment of the economic situation has worsened markedly for both Germany and the euro area, signaling weak economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Some uncertainties remain, such as the international trade conflict and Brexit, which have a negative impact on private investment and German exports.

EU countries give green light to EU budget for 2019

The European Union countries approved the agreement signed last week with the European Parliament.

The EU budget for 2019 is increased by 3.2% to deal with old problems such as unemployment and new challenges such as immigration.

In order for the budget to be in force on 1 January, all that is needed is the approval of the European Parliament.

Although the United Kingdom is scheduled to leave the European Union in March 2019, the accounts have been prepared on the premise that London will continue to contribute to the budget until the end of 2020.

Member States and the European Parliament agreed on accounts with 165.8 billion euros in commitments and 148.2 billion in payments.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-13 06:50:31 UTC #398

December 13, 2018

Chinese markets lead rises in Asia

Chinese indices were the best on Thursday, December 13, while the rest of Asia was in positive territory following Wall Street.

Trading in world markets was volatile at the beginning of the week, but stabilized after news in recent days indicated a decrease in tensions between the U.S. and China. Beijing is working to increase access to foreign companies, a measure aimed at easing trade tensions.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 1 percent. Australian equities recorded relatively modest gains. The ASX 200 index rose slightly, with the financial sub-index rising.

Asian stock performance followed a positive close in the United States. China's change in attitude means restarting US soybean purchases or even reducing tariffs on US car imports from 40% to 15%.

In Europe, Theresa May managed to overcome her motion of censure. May won the challenge by 200 votes to 117. Winning this vote means that her leadership cannot be threatened within the next year.

The pound clung to a large extent to the gains after Theresa May overtook Wednesday's vote. Now she will have more time to sell her unpopular Brexit deal to a deeply divided parliament. The euro rose against the dollar after Italy reduced its deficit target for next year.

Another crucial event looming in Europe on Thursday is the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates. Investors will be watching the ECB's guidance on interest rate developments and any announcements about its asset purchase program.

Oil prices rose during Thursday's Asian session. They were driven by falling U.S. inventories and signs of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Oil prices have also been supported by the supply cuts announced last week by OPEC.

The price of gold fell on Thursday, as the dollar stabilized after falling from its previous month's high. Palladium rose to an all-time high, trading at a higher price than gold.

European markets are expected to open Thursday's trading session higher.

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday

The Dow climbs with hope placed on trade agreements.

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, December 12, with investors digesting news related to the U.S.-China trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 157.03 points, led by Caterpillar earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent, driven by the discretionary consumer sector. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1 percent as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-Parent Alphabet climbed.

The Wall Street Journal reported that China is working to increase access to foreign companies, a measure aimed at smoothing trade relations. This plan would replace the 'Made in China 2025' plan and would be the framework to make China a leader in industries such as clean-energy automobiles and robotics.

Europe closes with optimism

European equities closed up on Wednesday 12 December, relieved by the easing of trade tensions.

The British pound moved away from a 20-month low on news that British Prime Minister Theresa May had passed her confidence motion.

The Stoxx 600 pan-European index closed a positive 1.69, with all sectors on the upside.

Europe's basic resource stocks, with their strong exposure to China, were the most profitable on Wednesday, after Trump said he would not increase tariffs on Chinese products until he was sure an agreement was reached.

Profits on Wall Street because the United States and China have a truce

Wall Street records gains of more than 1%, due to the optimistic message sent by China and the United States on their trade negotiations.

The provisional release of Meng Wanzhou, the financial director of Huawei who had been detained in Canada at the request of the United States, is also a clear positive catalyst for New York indices.

On the macroeconomic front, the November CPI in the United States has fallen to 2.2%, a figure that matches the consensus forecast.

In the commodities market, oil is rising strongly. The West Texas barrel rose 2% to 52.67 dollars.

In the debt market, the yield on the ten-year US bond rose slightly to 2.91%.

U.S. inflation decelerates to its lowest level in a year

The consumer price index remained stable in November in the United States, but the year-on-year rate declined and is the lowest level in a year.

The general uptrend in prices continues, which will serve as an argument for the Federal Reserve to continue with its strategy of gradually raising interest rates in the remainder of 2018.

The Fed is expected to make a further rise in the remainder of the year, given the strength of the US economy, with an unemployment rate that closed November at 3.7%.

China looks to give foreign companies greater access

China plans to develop a new program that will allow foreign companies greater access to the country. The intention is to resolve trade tensions with the United States.

China's main planning agency would be drafting a review of the 'Made in China 2025' plan. It is a project of President Xi Jinping to turn the country into a leader in high-tech industries.

Current plans would include the launch of this new policy early next year, a time when the United States and China are expected to speed up negotiations for an agreement to end their trade battle.

The US government described 'Made in China 2025' as a threat to fair competition. It is thought to fuel state subsidies for domestic companies.

In addition there is a risk of technology transfer from foreign companies, which are intended to collaborate in the project.

MEPs approve EU-Japan trade agreement

The European Parliament's plenary supported the trade agreement between the European Union and Japan, which will eliminate most tariffs on goods exported to the Asian country.

The pact received 474 votes in favour, 152 against and 40 abstentions.

This is the largest bilateral trade agreement ever negotiated by the European Union and creates a free trade area with 600 million people, covering one third of global GDP and 40% of world trade.

It will allow European businesses to save around €1 billion a year in customs duties.

The European Union will see sensitive sectors safeguarded. Rice, wine, cheese, pork, beef, pasta, chocolate or biscuits can be exported to Japan duty free.

Japan has agreed to open its market for public tenders in its main cities, while international shipping, postal services and e-commerce will also be liberalised.

Parliament welcomed the high level of environmental and labour protection contained in the treaty.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-14 07:30:00 UTC #399

December 14, 2018

Asian markets fall while China does not meet expectations

Shares in Asia were trading lower on Friday, December 14. China reported a large amount of economic data that did not meet expectations, adding to concerns about the headwinds facing the world's second-largest economy.

China's markets fell on Friday. With economic growth staggering, most analysts expect support measures from Chinese authorities, including interest rate cuts to support the economy, which would likely keep the yuan under pressure.

Australian markets also fell. The ASX 200 fell 0.84 percent. South Korean Kospi fell 1.27 percent. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 lost 1.42 percent.

The next big event will be the December 18-19 meeting of the Federal Reserve. Interest rates are expected to increase by 25 basis points. It would be their fourth rate hike this year, although the focus will be on the political outlook for 2019, about which there is a great deal of uncertainty.

During Friday's Asian trading session, the Dollar rose against most of the major currencies. Gains are likely to be limited by uncertainty about the monetary policy outlook for next year. The dollar gained broad support as the euro and the pound fell under pressure after negative comments from the president of the European Central Bank on the outlook for the euro zone and renewed concerns about a tough Brexit.

The yen rose slightly against the dollar during the Asian session, but during the last six sessions the dollar rose 1.2 percent against the Japanese yen. Interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan make the dollar a more attractive bet than the yen.

Oil prices fell on Friday, as investors took advantage of gains of more than 2 percent during the previous session to fear that demand would plummet amidst a slowdown in economic growth. Expectations of supply cuts to maintain prices continue.

Gold remained stable on Friday due to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook for next year. The precious metal is on track to mark its biggest weekly decline in five weeks as a stronger dollar weighs on investor sentiment.

European markets are expected to open Friday's trading session lower.

The Dow goes up in a wobbly session

On Thursday, December 13, the stock market was affected by the U.S.-China trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 70 points higher after alternating gains and losses throughout the day. The S&P 500 fell marginally, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4 percent at the same time that Amazon and Alphabet were losing their initial gains.

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Chinese state-owned companies have bought at least 500,000 tons of U.S. soy. It was the first major purchase of U.S. soy in more than six months and demonstrates a change of attitude in the Asian giant.

For his part, Donald Trump said he would intervene in the case of the Department of Justice against the financial director of Huawei if this would help soften trade relations between the United States and China.

European markets lose ground after ECB ends bond purchases

European equities were slightly down on Thursday, December 13. The Stoxx 600 pan-European index was little changed from the previous session. It closed with a slight drop at the end of the session.

This was the day the European Central Bank announced that it was closing its 2.6 billion euro aid programme.

The ECB will end its bond buying program after almost four years. European lenders have generally been critical of the Central Bank's program, arguing that it has a negative impact on their net income. The QE will actually continue to run, because they will continue to buy at the maturities of their huge portfolio. It will simply be a smaller QE.

Draghi said they don't have a schedule of interest rate hikes, but before the summer there won't be any hikes. Most analysts don't expect rate hikes for the whole of 2019. The Central Bank recognizes the economic weakness in Europe and sees danger for inflation in the short term.

Historic meeting for a more conservative Draghi

With the European Central Bank's quantitative stimulus coming to an end, the Bank's President and several members of its Governing Council have repeatedly stated that a significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed.

The latest news on Brexit, eurozone macroeconomic data and prospects for economic slowdown suppose a more conservative tone.

The market does not expect interest rate hikes until the last quarter of 2019.

European Council president to meet May before Brexit summit

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, announced that he will meet with the British Prime Minister in order to maintain last-minute contacts before the summit of EU leaders at which he will discuss Brexit.

May arrives in Brussels after passing a motion of confidence on Wednesday, called by the Conservative Party, to decide on her continuity at the forefront of government.

May will now seek new concessions from the European Union in Brussels to facilitate the approval of an agreement that aims to avoid an abrupt withdrawal of the community club from London.

Italy offers the European Union to reduce its deficit by 2019

The Commission will evaluate the proposals received over the next few days.

The Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, has presented the new draft budget for 2019 to the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

It reduces the deficit target from 2.48% to 2.04% of GDP, thanks to technical changes. However, social measures such as citizens' income and pension reform are being maintained.

Juncker says that good progress has been made, which Brussels will analyse in the next few days.

Conte has defended that the new draft budget does not betray the confidence of Italian society, because it maintains the reforms with greater social impact.

The soybean trade

The Chinese government may have had no choice but to resume importing U.S. soybeans, as Brazil is not enough to supply the Asian country, but they have done so in a way that gives Trump a small victory.

What is far more significant than buying some loads of soy which China needs anyway, is the renewal of imports of energy-related products.

While Trump focused on putting tariffs on imports from China, the Chinese simply stopped the only area of trade that was growing rapidly. Namely, imports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

It should be noted that crude oil is not subject to any Chinese import tariff, although LNG and coal are.

There are no signs that trade is resuming, as there is currently no reserved cargo to arrive in December, or beyond, according to the data.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

Chema01 2018-12-17 06:57:31 UTC #400

December 17, 2018

Asian markets were bullish amid cautious investor sentiment

Asian indices were bullish on Monday, December 17, after a report suggested more market turbulence in 2019. China's markets remained cautious at the end of the first part of the session after the country reported worse than expected economic data last Friday.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose. South Korea's Kospi recovered from initial losses to end up on the upside. Australia's ASX 200 recorded gains, with almost all sectors in positive territory.

Aside from fears of a global economic slowdown, markets are also focusing on the likely trajectory of US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its two-day meeting beginning on Tuesday. The central bank has raised interest rates eight times since December 2015, in an attempt to bring its monetary policy to a more normal environment after having reduced borrowing costs to almost zero in the past.

Traders believe that rising borrowing costs in the US are likely to hurt the momentum of economic growth and force the Federal Reserve to pause its monetary tightening path.

The Bank of Japan holds a meeting on December 19 and 20, at which the policy is expected to remain highly accommodative, as inflation remains well below its target.

The dollar hit a 19-month high, boosted by the purchase of safe-haven currencies, while concerns about the global economic slowdown reduced appetite for riskier assets. Weaker-than-expected economic data from China and Europe, and fears of a U.S. government shutdown, frighten investors. The dollar is clearly proving attractive in times of market stress.

The pound sterling remained under pressure in Asian trade. British Trade Minister Liam Fox said on Sunday that talks with the European Union on Brexit will still take some time and that nothing concrete will be known until the new year.

Brent crude oil prices fell, amid concerns about demand and lower growth in major economies. U.S. oil markets remained stable, after U.S. drilling activity fell to its lowest level for several months.

Gold fell on the strength of the dollar and amid concerns of a global economic slowdown.

European markets are expected to open Monday's trading session lower.

U.S. indices fell sharply on Friday

The Dow drops about 500 points to its lowest close since May.

U.S. indices fell sharply on Friday, December 14, after weaker than expected data from China and Europe raised concerns about a global economic slowdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 496.87 points to its lowest level since early May. Apple and Johnson & Johnson were the worst. The year has already seen a decline of 2.5 percent.

The S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent, to its worst level since April when the decline began in the technology and health sectors. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.26 percent.

European equities closed down amid growing fears about global growth

European equity markets closed Friday, December 14, with a bearish trend. The Stoxx 600 pan-European index closed provisionally with a slight decline and with almost all sectors and major stock exchanges in negative territory.

The market focus is largely in tune with a possible economic slowdown in the coming months.

Car stocks led Friday's losses. Volkswagen, Renault and Fiat Chrysler were the protagonists of an 8.1 percent drop in car sales in Europe in November.

Sharp falls in stock markets due to fears of a slowdown in China

European indices fell sharply on Friday, December 14, after a series of Chinese economic indicators have been released that have scared investors.

The reading for fixed asset investment stood at 5.9%. Industrial production was at 5.4%. Retail sales stood at 8.1%. All data was worse than expected.

In Asia, there was a widespread liquidation of assets, due to investors' fear of this situation.

China's economic slowdown is one of those stemming from the trade war and is worrying the markets in the face of evidence that it is already happening.

Investors digest Draghi's words

Draghi starred in an appearance described as 'not very soft'.

The president of the European Central Bank confirmed that the bond purchase plan will end this year, as expected, although they will keep those that were already in the portfolio renewing them at maturity.

Everything seems to indicate that Draghi will leave his post at the end of next year without any increase in rates.

In his speech, he lowered the growth forecast and warned that inflationary risk is shifting to the negative side.

The euro came under pressure after Thursday's hearing.

Several important aspects related to Brexit remain on the table

The European Council is over and a number of important issues remain unresolved.

Jean-Claude Juncker has informed that the European Commission will present next Wednesday, December 19, the contingency plans in which Brussels is working to face the eventuality of a chaotic Brexit.

The European Council has issued a text adopted by the 27, in which they underline that the agreement for Brexit is not open to renegotiation.

They reaffirm their willingness to establish a new relationship with the United Kingdom as close as possible. Just as it would be with any other country outside the European Union.

Germany is one of the countries most affected by the situation of the automotive sector

It has been known that in the month of November the sale of new cars has fallen again, chained three months of consecutive declines and this is not a surprise.

The war on diesel cars, the ban on circulation in some cities and the fact that they already have an expiry date mean that everyone is fearing for the companies' revenues.

It should be remembered that many of the companies in the automotive and spare parts sector are German companies.

Car manufacturers are going to have to invest a lot of money in developing new technologies and the business horizon for these companies is quite complicated.

On the other hand, China significantly reduces tariffs on cars made in the United States and Tesla reacts immediately. The electric car company says it cuts prices for S and X models.

DISCLAIMER

The research covered in this report should not be considered as a recommendation to operate. Opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information are provided as general market comments and not as investment advice.

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