Martingales ALWAYS have a low Rs
not the case of LZB
Martingales ALWAYS have a low Rs
I think Jaume didn’t said that LZB was a martingale, but talking about a different type of strategies with low La, Os & Cs
LZB isn’t a martingale, it’s a different type of bad strategy: high Cs but low Os and low La.
ARIMA is autoregressive. Almost all the technical analysis is of the ARIMA model. For example the moving averages.
Another month, another red one…
And since the beginning of this portfolio in 17/7/2018:
The last three months have been awful. All the “greatest & classic” darwins are having huge loses.
But there are some darwins that performed nicely, and I think they could be candidates to be in an all-weather and more balanced portfolio: OOA, KVL (despite the last bad 2 weeks, let’s see how it evolves), THA (not very good, but positive the last 3 months), ASY, YZZ, ACE, HFD, SCS (I still doubt about this, but the reality is that he’s delivering…), ZXW, CSP?, BUX, KDT, VVC (although I don’t like that it stops trading from time to time)
I’m starting to think something that may seem heresy for a trader: could be possible that the best Buy & Hold strategy is:
1.- Find true traders
2.- Buy their uncorrelated darwins
3.- Never sell
Even great darwins like NTI has had very bad days. NTI had a 1 year DD of -20%, and then more that another year until get a new ATH, so it was 2.3 years stagnation!. And that for one of the most respected traders here! But at the end he got to reverse it, and made new highs.
Let’s imagine that these are darwins equity curves, with a history of 10 years:
Interesting curves, right? Ups and downs, but at the end, always growing. But actually, as you know, those are the curves of the Dow Jones since 1915 and the SP500 since 1928, adjusted for inflation. They always go up in the long run. It doesn’t matter economy, it doesn’t matter even wars. After some years of DD they’re going always up, up, up. I think that the same may happen for darwins with real traders behind them, that slowly adapt and improve their darwins without changing the good trading style. So these days I’m wondering if the darwin made by a true trader would be exactly like the SP500 or the Dow.
The fundamentals would be:
- Economy -> always up in the long term (decades) -> SP 500
- Good trader doing its job -> always up in the long term (single digit years) -> Darwins
My hypothesis is that for really good darwins, for a B&H, may be silly to sell them even if they go below 45. And if we get uncorrelated enough darwins, we’ll get rid of long DD in the long term thanks to diversification. If those are really good darwins, in a couple of years very probably they’ll be doing again new ATH, despite horrible DD.
that’s the point…
more than one year ago…
Yeah, sometimes it takes time for an idea to be really understood. And then it hits you!
interesting this list proposed by @primezor just after my comment on true traders… try to test or buy and hold forever …
PS : you need to remove STM that is closed…
On the other hand, if the same conclusion is reached independently by multiple parties, the likelihood of it being the correct conclusion increases I think.
Edit: From what I remember, that’s how discoveries usually go. When environmental factors are accommodating (data availability, scientific developments etc) multiple people discover something independently, within close time period of each other
Well, here goes the screenshot this month…
Another not-so-good month.
Also, may be it is not so interesting anymore to post these updates? I mean, now anyone can backtest the results by themselves.
Just in case, this is my darwins list:
Backtests are free, but the logic behind a choice it is not… so if someone want to share his reasoning I can only appreciate it!
Can I have a monthly update?
Sure, my bad. I’ve been a bit disconnected from Darwinex since some weeks ago.
Results are improving slowly.
What about PME again? I must be missing something, but with those overall scores and results how come it doesn t have more investors? It s a big dilemma to me.
Waw! How is that even possible? Thanks Muiris!