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NFA - RunnerRunner

Hi all Darwinex’s People, traders and investors.
I’m going to introduce you to my RunnerRunner, manual strategy, new Darwin from April 1st as NFA

An old rule says: “buy when people sell, sell when people buy”.
So I enter at market in a pair, with one or more trades, when I believes that trend is about to change, aiming for clear and upcoming technical targets.

The goal: to close the target price with a positive overall profit, by accepting temporary daily DD on open (working) positions.

So strategy is structured to minimize losses through careful management of the max absolute DD (8% approx.)

Help me two indicators based on technical analysis and created by me, that send a signal that represents the sum of some traditional indicators.
The first one tries to identify a possible change of trend in the short or medium term, with a clear and near technical target profit. The second shows me when to enter at market, at times of high volatility.

The risk of “fake signals” always exists, so I accept as a maximum DD 8% (approx), statistically suitable for a recovery strategy in 2 -6 weeks. Then trades will be closed.

Max 3 pairs active at the same time, selected between major, main minors and gold. TF standard h4 (sometimes Day, very rare TF h1)

Operating data:

Average trade time: 1-4 candles (6-14 hours on standard TF H4).
Overnight positions: yes, mostly open on pairs linked to AUD - JPY - NZD
Average trade per month: 100-150 (depends on volatility)
Maximum DD 8% (approx), then positions will be closed.
Max lots open: 0.20 x 1000 € balance

To better understand the strategy, I introduce you some personal data, related to these early days (from 02/20/2019 to 03/31/2019),

Return since inception 11.70%
Trade 116 - Wins 76.72% - Lost 23.28%
Groups of trades: 59 - Win 53 - Lost 6
Working Days 28 - Winning days 26 - Losing days 2 (temporary DD excluded)
Pairs used: 22 (21 currencies + gold)

Ask me about

3 Likes

Welcome! So you average into positions when you think the trend is about to change and then close if they hit 8% loss yes? I can’t see a migration date on Darwinex - was it Feb 19? How long have you been trading this profitably before joining? What sort of average monthly % return/DD would you expect going forward? How many pairs do you have open at any one time? Good luck!

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Welcome @RunnerRunner ! Wish you the best for your contrarian strategy :slight_smile: !

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Hello marketserpent. Nice to meet you and thanks for your questions.

I am a retail investor since 1986 and I believe that an investor wants to see a positive return every month, even a small one.
And wants to recover any losses quickly without being forced to refund his account.

I discovered Darwinex only at february 2019, and for me it is the ideal broker for this operation.

But it would not make sense to migrate the history of my strategy (operating 100% from 1/10/2018) because it works with a leverage 1: 500
However, it can provide us with comparable and precise data, even for the number of trades x pair, profit x lots, pips, etc. Later I will post them with a historical chart also

For now I can tell you that a reasonable average profit x month can be from 6% to 10%.
For this reason I imposed a DD of 8% max

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Sorry but these are totally unrealistic expectations and a recipe for distaster. Especially in conjunction with averaging down if price goes against you.

6 Likes

Hi @KlondikeFX
A wise man said: “It is not difficult to make good results. It is difficult to do it again.”
So, I can understand the logic of your opinion, in absence of a long-term historical data and the existence of disastrous strategies that may seem similar.

I also understand that you don’t understand very much about my way of working.
But when we talk about other people’s strategies, it would be useful and appropriate to complete them with precise reasons. If not they are just to talk
For example: what’s for you “unrealistic” and “disastrous”. And why?

NFA in March had a performance 7.31%. It means 80 USD on 157,000 units traded (0,028%): it seems me an affordable, minimal and amateur result, as I am. Do you think that 0.028% it’s an “unrealistic aspectation”?
Gordon Gekko can do absolutely better, sure!
In few days it has already produced profit that covers 1.5 times its max DD parameter… Where do you see a “disaster”?

Personally, in a leveraged market, my first look go to profit x lots, because 10% obtained with 1: 1 leverage is 10% real. But 10% obtained with 1:30 leverage can be 10% but also 0.33% real

Then … I agree with you: none of us knows the future

@securix uhmm … I not identify my strategy as “contrarian retail” (but stress maybe the same :rage:). It can become it, sometimes, but I hope to avoid it. At least, but not all: maybe only in a small part, main on high volatility returns.

@marketserpent: max 6 trades open on the same cross. Max 3 different pairs open at the same time. Max volume 0.15 total lots (only once with 3 trade).

It’s not my intention to mock on you or your trading.

However, I have NEVER in my 10years of trading seen a strategy that is able to accumulate monthly returns in the dimension of its maximum total drawdown.
I have seen many traders claiming they can do this and even more investors that wish to achieve those returns.

Traders that claim to achieve those returns are most often operating on some kind of grid strategy (averaging into losing positions) and sometimes even in combination with some sort of martingale (increasing leverage) as those strategies look the most appealing to investors striving for unrealistic returns. Sooner or later this mix always ends in a disaster.

In the end, it doesn’t matter if you compare leveraged or unleveraged returns as the drawdown will have the same leverage. You were talking about an average return of 6-10% with a max drawdown of 8%. I am sorry but this isn’t sustainable in any way.

You are of course free to prove me wrong but this will take some time as sustainability isn’t a matter of a few months :slight_smile:

4 Likes

OK, thanks for clarifying :). I dared to define it as “contrarian” based on your post presentation :slight_smile: .

Contrarian is indeed stressful :sweat_smile: !

Anyway : whatever is your trading style, the most (only ?) important part is the results / performance / risk management : wish you the best !

Welcome! let see us what you can do! at soon

1 Like

@KlondikeFX I got my first real gain 32 years ago, in 1987, during the NY crash. Other times, other tools.

I see that your best account on myfxbook has a 7 year and performance of 263%.
Lots are private, but I see a result of $ 1.16 x trade. My result is $ 1.01 x trade. Both seems to me to be rational and comparable results…

From 10/1/2018 your account has lost 10.98%. Mine has gained 265% and I hope to be here again in 2027…

How to judge? No one it’s a guru.
Like you, I struggle every day to get a positive result, even a small one.
So I agree about danger of some types of strategies (martingale, etc.). I don’t agree about leverage.
With right strategy and right money management, Average price can be very useful.

If you check the data I posted, you will see that my balance is based on the MINIMUM operating parameter, needed to cover margin on maximum operating volume and max DD.

This parameter, imho, tells us if a performance is really interesting or if they are just numbers.

I could double my balance, but it would have no logic: I will always have the same profit, but the percentage of yield and DD will be halved. In practice, I only have money left in an account. This is not good for an investor.

My accounts you are mentioning are just small reference accounts to track the performance of a single strategy. I have various other accounts that are not publicly visible for a number of reasons. But that’s not important.

It’s not about lotsizes or balance or whatever.

Also I am not saying that my trading is better than your or anyone elses trading. So there is really no point in this.

All I was trying to point out is that it’s not a realistic goal to reach monthly returns in the same dimension of maximum drawdown. But let’s leave it at that. I have made my point and I hope you will prove me wrong.

1 Like

Of course, we all have experimental accounts. No one works 7 years to earn $ 3,000 / 4,000

What I would like to explain: it is not the profit that establishes a DD max, but me. I established that max DD (based on a hypothetical and reasonable profit and historical data)

So you can’t say that “it’s not real”, etc. etc.

Limiting DD is better than to set monthly profit targets, usually people that set monthly profit targets burn the account.
If you set a max DD of 8% you will probably earn 16% ANNUAL. :wink:

1 Like

Hi @cavaliereverde.
Nice to met you. I look your strategies: they seem interesting, balanced and very professional.

Profit depends on how many trade opportunity the signals offers to me. I can have 16% or 160%: now we can’t know.

But:

  1. NFA has never touched this famous 8%, that also means 50-80 pips medium price far to break-heaven. That represent just a simply one thing: a wrong trade! Better to close, I think. Also if NFA balance can support DD until 25%.
  2. NFA proposes itself to the investors and (I hope) they will assign to it not all of their portfolio, but a quote.
    Never can promise future returns, it’s true. But I can specify a maximum loss.
    I don’t want anyone to risk on NFA more than they are willing to lose.
    Respect for investors is the most important thing, for me.

If I will make a mistake, investor must easily recover losses, that are a “quote of 8%”. Also choosing another Darwin, if necessary.

Thanks again for your opinion :+1:

1 Like

Money management it’s the most difficult.
Especially when I have little time to set up trades. :flushed:

2 Likes

NFA is now ON FIRE ranking

Last 3 months ranking:
Pos. #31/100 best drawdown
Pos. #85/100 best return
Pos. #49/100 as investors capital

Last month ranking
Pos. #18/100 best drawdown
Pos. #49/100 best return
Pos. #49/100 as investors capital

Unfortunately, few signs and few trades in the first 10 days of April
Less than 50% of the usual working average! :rage:.

Some data:

  • Lots: 0.37 only - average profit per lots: 40.74 $ approx.
  • 12 trade-cycles only: win 11 - loss 1
  • 26 trade: wins 19 - lost 7

We hope the market will move a little… …

Well…
RunnerRunner keeps his run

NFA always ON FIRE - ranking #25

last 3 month ranking: Pos. #44 for best return - best return/drawndown ratio
17.44% profit - 3.72% DD from beginning on 02.20.2019

76% winning trade working on 18 pairs and gold, but, unfortunately, April saw few signals, cause of little volatility and very close targets.
96 trades only for 1,24 lots, only, approx, 35 USD x lot (30 EUR)
2,25% profit :expressionless:

May starts better: 3,31% at now

2 Likes

Keep running, so :slight_smile: !

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May started well, but 3 fake signals on GBPCHF caused a DD of 6% which was then quickly recovered before end of the month
In any case, even May closed at + 1.74%.
Small but profit, continuing the positive series started on February 2019.

June also started well (+4.02%, at now) and NFA entered in the “promising” ranking

Next post, I will try to explain to investors some tips and tricks about how to best manage investiment on NFA, multiply potential profit and minimizing risk at the same time.

1 Like

Congratulations :slight_smile: !

Would like to express my gratitude towards such professional attitude. That’s exactly the behavior I refer to in my manifesto.

:ok_hand::ok_hand::ok_hand: