I totally agree with you, you cannot compare a trading strategy to a coin flip. My example was only used to create a game with positive ROI and ask if you’d still wait for a drawdown, before investing.
Also, as CavaliereVerde pointed out in different terms, trading strategies do well only with certain market conditions. Since market behavior is not always the same, you can expect that, during some periods, the strategy is not performing at the best, facing a drawdown.
I take my IRY as example.
IRY performs at the best during trends and, generally, when volatility is high. In November 2019, market was dead. Very small movements, mostly in ranges. IRY closed the month at -1.99%.
December 2019 has been a very good month, especially for GBP/USD, with the election in UK. IRY closed the month at +11.49%.
Now, investors might think: “this guy just had an incredible month, I’m not stupid, I’m not gonna buy it now. I will wait for next drawdown”.
“Ok, drawdown should be around the corner, let’s wait!”
“Oh, that’s unfortunate. At this point, I wait for a big drawdown in March.”
March: +4.03% so far
The point is: how long are you going to wait before investing? You already missed a profit of 12.03%, from the end of December 2019, where you were waiting for a drawdown.
Do you think that next drawdown will make up for the 12.03% profit that you have missed?
This is my point and my opinion