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PNY by purple

Hello darwinias, great to be with you!

Not the very best to start with a drawdown but I also have a good comeback! Looking forward for first investors on Christmas :slight_smile:

If you have questions, here is the right place.

PNY

purple

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Welcome! Would love to hear a bit about your trading philosophy.

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Thank you @jgmcps! I always try to keep things simple or better to keep it clear. It means, that for any case of marketconditions I have to have the answer for what to do. And if I don’t have the answer now I have to work on it for the future.
Further I am trading full manual but always in a systematic way. The same I do for backtesting strategies. It’s because I do not have programming experience. It’s alot of work but I think it helps me much more to unterstand the markets.

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Welcome @purple i like what I hear in respect of keeping it simple.

To me this is the same as saying you are consistent as in the heat of the trade you’re not making loads of complicated judgements.

However, thats quite a hefty drawdown to start off with! ooooof :confounded:

Is that within normal limits/ to be expected or out of range?

If its to be expected do you look forward for big winning months to eat up the drawdown months? Would you expect more than two consecutive months of this level of DD (or more?!!)

If its out of your expected range so do you understand the reasons for it and how to recitfiy?

I’ll pass on investing for now purely because its so young and hasn’t had a chance to show returns over the long term.

I must be honest and say that an 11.2% loss in one month is a very serious cause for concern though… three of those is over third of the account gone or a 33% loss for your investors which is going to be psychologically difficult for you and also and investors…

I say this from experience.

As you can see, my Darwin UEI had several months of nearly 8% DD in the past, which I have had to reflect on very honestly and rectify by digging down into the reasons.

I now have a Darwin I feel I can stand behind and performance is now where I always hoped it might be.

Trading is a real journey with many ups and downs, The markets are a tough but fair teacher to us all!!

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Thank you @TevershamCapital for your great post. It’s a big pleasure to get so much interest on such a young darwin. That’s the questions to be asked - not just for an investor but also the trader himself. I will come back to your questions a little later because I don’t want it to answer short.

For the moment I have to set the keypoint in strategy’s history that the underlying account get’s back up to green numbers and also “a new high” - High in this case is relative :smiley: Drawdown covered after 40 days (24 Trading-Days). I hope PNY will follow soon.

Again, @TevershamCapital, your participation is a great honor for me.

No honour, we’re all traders here! You seem to be at the stage that I was a few years ago.

I am actually more interested in you as a trader than the specific strategy.

The fact your aim is to keep it simple already puts you above a lot of other traders in terms of long term consistency and psychology. Over complicating things just leads to bad decisions.

Starting simple and refining as you go along is the way IMHO

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Good evening!

As promised here are some details @TevershamCapital asks for:

Yes indeed it is and also it is in a range that takes several times in the past as you can see in this chart:


I have to say that this charts is based on Live-Trades but with not the orgiginal Riskmanagement. I had to adjust this a little bit when “ESMA” changed rules.[quote=“TevershamCapital, post:4, topic:4496”]
If its to be expected do you look forward for big winning months to eat up the drawdown months?
[/quote]

Yes I am confident to eat upt these DD’s in tolerable time periods.

2 more charts for expectet DD’s:


That’s the winrate of the strategies Live-Trades (it’s not 1600, it’s 963 Trades). The reason for 1600 datapoints is the the sheet includes Not-Traded-Trades but not calculatet for the winrate (so the 60-period is arround 60 Trades. It goes slightly down but I think it’s no need to woryy yet.

The next chart shows the drawdowns in Trades by Trading-Days:

Yes, I have to expect 2 consecutive months with such a drawdown - a Trader should expect to double his DD’s I think. Your 33%-interjection indeed I have to think about it deeper and I think it’s one important rule to add - the worst case rule. Thank you for that so much.

Have a nice evening!
purple

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Fantastic and honest analysis, well done. I’m sure this demonstration of in depth knowledge of your strategy will only engender confidence in investors.

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Thank you @TevershamCapital and much respect for your journey. It’s very impressive.

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D-Score of PNY has reached 10 now. Over 100 Trades were made. There were some adaptations for this darwin the last weeks. I will come up with that in some details on a quarterly summary next week.

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Back in green and first quotation above 100 (100.29) for PNY.

Furthermore, 1000 trades are completed in the base strategy (524 winners, 476 loosers - 52.4%).

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Q3 2018 Summary:

Results Q3:

Adjustments Q3:

  1. Completition of changes in Riskmanagement regarding to ESMA while first step took place last quarter
  2. the connection to volatility has been improved
  3. closer Stop-Losses
  4. tiny adjustment of an entry-rule
  5. new Exit-rules to expand profits

So a number of adjustments this quarter which is not usual for this strategy so often. While 1. and 2. was done to lower the accounts volatility regarding to lower leverages, 3. to 5. was to improve the performance even if the performance of the basicstrategy was very good.

I wish you all a good time here and I am really looking forward to the next quarter.

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PNY has needed a bit more time, but now the Drawdown has been liquidated after 59 days (35 Trading-Days).

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D-Score 20 for PNY (25 days ago it was at 10).

Winrate-60* (around 60 trades) is back in the sixties.

New exits are a bit behind but nothing unexpected. - The goal is to give away a bit to hit the jackpot with a few “Supertrades”.

D-Score 30 for PNY.
33 days from 20 to 30
25 days from 10 to 20

Current DD lasts longer than 30 days. Good results the last days, so I hope new Highs will coming soon.

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Drawdown liquidatet after 39 days (23 Trading-Days).
Previous DD’s 59 days (35 Trading-Days).

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D-Score 40 for PNY.
51 days from 30 to 40
33 days from 20 to 30
25 days from 10 to 20

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Q4 2018 Summary:

Results Q4:

“home” means the main account for this strategy, “base” menas the strategy in it’s basic version without the most of adjustments.

Adjustments Q4:

Number 5. of adjustments in Q3 has been suspended owing to fewer time resources. A comeback of these optimized exits is planned for Q2, more likely Q3 2019.

I wish you all the best for 2019!

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Unexpected numbers forced me to reduce the position sizes to 1/3 of normal size.

  • Trades-DD ist much higher than ever in the past

  • performance of the basic strategy went below the 52-weeks-MA first time:

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Q1 2019 Summery:

Results Q1:

Adjustments Q1:

No adjustments.

Waiting for better days in Q2 :slight_smile:

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