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PXT - by Linusman

hi
i would like to introduce our darwin PXT (https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/PXT.4.16) and our experience.
We are three indipendent traders with 10 years of experience in the market. In particular, we work with shares, futures and option index with particolar strategy as well as volatility strategy. We also work in Forex market and the strategy behind this darwin is focused in this kind of market.
The main pair traded is EURUSD with accurate money management; the most important rules are:

  • Every single position is with leverage 1:1 (max 1.3);
  • I use hedging to close position, so you can see some trades with loss for a long time;
  • Max exposure expected is a leverage 1:10 (in the last three years the max leverage is 1:8)
    Our primary target is to have a good risk management of portfolio. About performance, our goal is 30% annual return with max drawdown under 15%.
    All our trading decision to enter/exit are based less on technical analysis and fundamental analysis, and more about the study of implied volatility and trader positioning (as well as COT and retail position). After 10 years of trading, we attribute the following importance to the various factors that influence trading:
  • 60% risk and money management;
  • 20% study retail positioning and implied volatility;
  • 10% fundamental analysis;
  • 10% technical analysis.
    We think it’s really important to have always the control of your portfolio in every scenario. This is our first experience on darwinex (for forex i have 2 other broker), so for now we have deposited a small amount (about 5.000 euro) but, if it will be as well as we think, we expect to transfer a large amount from one our broker to darwinex.
    Thanks for the attention.
    Kind Regards
8 Likes

Hi there @Linusman

Welcome to the community and thanks a lot for introducing your Darwin.
It is very much appreciated in this community.

Wish you the best of luck!
Kind regards,

Welcome @Linusman !

Wish you the best for your Darwinex journey :slight_smile: !

Hi @SkyField and @SECURIX
Thank you very much

1 Like

Good morning
very good stress test yesterday for our darwinx PXT. The risk management was excellent and we are able to lower the risk level.
Only yesterday, the implied volatility on the option (exp 12/9) was 16%. Now it’s back to average (5.5%).
Good job everyone!

1 Like

Good evening
the PXT (https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/PXT.4.16) is having a good performance for now. 13.3% and untile the end of this year i think that it could be above 15%.
The volatility of eurusd is very low…so also the exposition for PXT is small.
I see that there is the first investor in our darwin with 50k. It is very good news for us. If you have a question about our darwin, ask here.
Bye

1 Like

Hi everyone!
I wish you merry Christmas and happy new year for all community!
The PXT had a very good performance compared to what we had expected. For now 24.8% in six months and the master account reached the target of 15% in 6 months. The drawdown is very little specially in the last perdiod.
We hope the next year will be better than the last but it is hard :sweat_smile:
Bye

4 Likes

Dear Community,
we think that is important talk about EURUSD situation for this month, specially about tools that we use to do trading.
First of all, the option open interest on Eurusd with expiration of 7 feb 2020, show some important level:

  • Down, area 1.1000-1.1050
  • Up, area 1.1250-1.1350
    The max pain, now is at 1.1150 (remember that the future quotes now 50 pips more).
    immagine

On the other hand, we have a strange expiration on 6 mar 2020, because we have a lot of call from 1.1150 to 1.1350. If there is this situazion and there will not be any big changes, the area 1.1150 – 1.1350 will be a strange resistance for Eurusd.
immagine

The next chart is about ATM volatility term structure. We can see that we have about 0.2% down of all structure compared to 7 days ago.
immagine

The next chart is the comparison of last month between Historical volatility and implied vol. Now we have the same value. In general, the implied vol is higher than the historical vol, so we expect a value less than actual. This means that the daily range will be less than now.
immagine

Finally a daily chart of Eurusd to understand the area and level where we will work:
immagine

Now, the PXT darwin, work with leverage x3 compared master account because we have a low VAR. In this period, since the implied vol is low compared to past months (over 10-12 months ago), this leverage, for us, is acceptable.

If anyone have question, you are welcome.

6 Likes

Dear investors,

we would like to explain how the new VAR change the our Darwin. In the past period, thank’s to VAR fixed 10%, our Darwin PXT also had a leverage of 1:4 (1:3 on average) compared to underlying strategy. This type of leverage, help the performance because we have a positive period.

Now, with the new VAR, we have now a leverage between 1:1,8 - 1:1,5 compared to underlying strategy. This kind of leverage, we think that will be until about next two months. This improvement help for the risk manager (ad the drawdown) but could decrease the annual performance. We must specify that the annual target of 30% - 40% will remain the same with max drawdown expected of 15%.

We are very happy that we received the “trending’s” badge from darwinex for our Darwin!

For today we have 1 deviation standard that could swing the price of our darwin between 129.17 - 125.13.

Bye

3 Likes

Good morning,

short update about EURUSD. Yesterday, during the press conference, the following data were explained:

  • ECB rates will remain “at present levels, or lower, as long as the inflation outlook converges robustly close to 2%” and the Qe, resumed in early November, “will continue as long as necessary”;
  • Growth in the eurozone continues but at a moderate level;
  • The most indebted “eurozone” countries must pursue prudent fiscal policies.

Lagarde’s speech led to a weakening of the Euro-dollar exchange rate which traded in the 1.1050 area. The current situation does not offer predictions of strong rises, but rather of a continuation of lateral movement in low volatility.

Regarding the situation on the options, in the last two weeks there have been a lot of call openings on February and March expirations. Especially the March expiration, it has a structure that does not offer positive forecasts above the 1.1200 - 1.1300 levels. For now, 1.1000-1.0950 is good area to trading with buy position.

Currently PXT will continue to operate with low leverage (the forecast is 1:1.5 1:1.6 compared to the underlying) and with an expected VAR between 5% - 7%.

For new investors, you are welcome! We are happy that, for now, all our investors are in profit :wink:

5 Likes

Good morning,

from a comparison of all darwins, we have to do the following filter:

  • return last year > 0%
  • DD last 3 month < 6%
  • return / DD ratio > 1.5
  • AUM > 30k

The results are that PXT is the second best darwin with a return of 19.93% and DD of 5.42%. Now we have also ONFIRE filter.

This good job is result of a continuous and constant updating of the risk management of our system and trading strategy. The low DD is also for very low volatility on EURUSD. In case the Vol of EURUSD will go up, we are ready to change risk management. The markets are random walk, does not exist a trading system that is perfect for ever. For this, we have choose to create a strategy with a semi-automatic algorthm with the human control.

We work hard to do continue for a long time this positive trend :wink:

5 Likes

Good morning,
today there is decision of interest FED rate and FOMC. We expect more volatility than in last days, with fluctuation for our darwin of 0.5% - 1%. The PXT could swing between 129.75 and 132.53.

Have a nice day

3 Likes

Good morning,

we have the pleasure to representing that we have reached 10 investors with over 150k euro AUM in darwinex platform. We have similar AUM in other platform (with trading history since oct 2018) and we do not exclude that the investors move in darwinex in the next few month.

About PXT, the last three months performance are very good with +19.28% and low DD of 5.42% with return/risk 1.83. This results are better than expected.

At the end of the first quarter 2020, we will do a detailed report. For now, the low implied vol on Eurusd is helping our risk management but we pay attention for a possible rise up.

3 Likes

Good morning,

the last week PXT had a DD of - 4.3% (-2% on the underlying).
As we said days ago, this area (1.10 - 1.0950), is good area to trading in buy. We have space to handle a DD and our risk management allows to manage this position.
For this week, we believe that the eurusd can touch 1.0880 level so, our money management don’t exclude eventually to hedge some buy position.
1.0975 is an important level for this week. On the sentiment analysis, we see an excess and the Vol. Impl. with open interest analysis for the next expiration, show 1.1000 as fair value.

Have a nice week

3 Likes

Good morning,

our darwin PXT is in drawdown with -11.6% because our view on EURUSD is for long position. In the last days we see a lot of put option in open interest in area 1.0800 - 1.0750 for expiration of march and april.
We work with hedge position in sell to decrease the drawdown, but we think that the EURUSD will recover area 1.0950 in short term.

Bye

4 Likes

Good morning,

the news about coronavirus is creating alarmism and the markets have more volatility than last days. On EurUsd we expect more volatility but also a recover of area 1.09 as first step.
For this reason we keep the delta of total position positive to take benefit on the rise.
In the meantime, we trade with sell position the increase/decrease the delta, so in the range we expect to rise our performance.
About risk management, we tell some information:

  • the daily atr (20) on eurusd is 45 pips;
  • our darwin with 50 pips could have a performance in range of +/- 3.4% and +/-1.14% (depend on delta). For now the delta of underlying will not be more of a leverage of 3.

Bye

Good morning,

The EurUsd has recovered area 1.0950 and our darwin PXT is back over 125.00.
Our work during the drawdown has been manage the long position without increase the leverage and the risk.
There have been times when the total position has been in hedge during the down movement according with our risk management.
Today we have closed one of three buy in loss and we choose to keep the total delta of ptf to -2. Our expectation is a return on area 1.0800 within 1-2 months as we see on option expiration structure and implied smile volatility.
If the expectation will be wrong, the darwin could drop 5% in bad case, but we think that our rules of money management and our trading system could limit these loss.
If the expectation will be right, the darwin could rise until the price of 135 within the end of march.

Bye

4 Likes