Of course there is not only good, but still, the stock becomes impressive.
Of course there is not only good, but still, the stock becomes impressive.
first darwin with 1MM
I would rather see each out of Top20 Darwins to have over 500K AUM then just one with 1MM.
It seems that 420 Darwins are profitable over last 1 year. Not bad.
¿JGC? It’s the first candidate
We aren’t still there but now there are 5 darwins above 1MM .
End of last year we had around 20 Darwins with over 100K of AUM. NOw we are at 28 and climbing higher slowly. I think that by the end of 2018 we could have Top20 Darwins with at least 250K. It’s good to see the progress
Very nice indeed, I like where this project is heading.
Top 20 are above 250K , end of April…
45 darwins above 100K .
I think Top 20 will be at 500K by the end of 2018.
Top 20 are above 250K (DWC not included) so no change here.
We have 11 Darwins with over 500K now.
40 Darwins with over 100K AUM (excluding DWC and DWF), which is less than 5 months ago.
70 Darwins with at least 50K AUM.
More good Darwins are joining. Still many Darwins with great performance have way less than 100K AUM.
Let’s see where we will be at the end of the year
Let’s see where we are after another 6 months.
Note: I am excluding Darwinex Darwins as they are not meant for long term investing.
2064 Darwins found.
Top 20 are above 233K. (were above 250K)
We have 17 Darwins with at least 250K AUM.
There are 11 Darwins with over 500K AUM (no change here in 6 months).
36 Darwins are over 100K AUM. (40 Darwins 6 months ago)
60 Darwins with at least 50K AUM. (70 Darwins 6 months ago)
Looking at where we were 6 months or 11 months ago, we can see that trend is down. Overall expected improvement has not come. Some well invested good performing Darwins have disappointed investors in the last 6 months. There are few Darwins that are going good. But we have many new Darwins with over 100K AUM who were not there year ago.
My conclusion: It is still very hard to create investment portoflio with at least 10 Darwins. Probability to achieve 20% annual performance is very low (haven’t seen any investor achieve that yet). Dropping number of Darwins with 50K or 100K AUM may indicate that many investors are getting burned. I think most investors jump in and out very quickly. I don’t blame them because there are still not enough good Darwins to choose from. This behavior of investors is not really attractive for potential Darwin providers. It is almost guaranteed that at least one good Darwin you invest in will give you over 30% loss in next 6-12 months and I think many investors are not prepared to experience that. Investors hope for decent 10-20% annually but are not prepared for highly volatile investing, which Darwins are.
I was positive/bullish on investing potential here. Now after couple years my sentiment is neutral. I think people who are very positive may have too big expectations what Darwinex could achieve in year or two. Reality may be that it may take even over 5 years to get where many of us hope for Darwinex to be. It’s definitely very long term game.
If you are new investor here, save your money and opt for Demo investing accounts and stay with them for a year. Choose around 10 Darwins and keep them in one account (this is passive investing). Then create another portfolio where you can rotate Darwins every few months (this is more active investing). If you can’t make at least 10% after 12 months on demo then stay on demo another year. Low number of quality Darwins and probability that you choose winning portfolio go against you. Darwins are highly volatile investing vehicles so if you are not prepared for 20% or 30% drawdowns then do not invest.
My prognosis for the rest of 2019 is this: no big improvements expected in AUM arena, numbers will be similar to what they are today.
(these are all my own personal opinions, make your own decisions)
I agree with everything you said a part from this sentence.
We need also much better investors…
I could have articulated that better.
Some jump in/out because that’s what they do.
Some jump in/out because they bank in smaller profits in order to avoid potential smaller/bigger drawdown and are not patient.
I think that impatient uneducated investors are symptom. To change the cause of that is up to Darwinex, which may take years.
I can see how many of those 37 investors who exited SYO did that either to bank some small profits or to cover the loss on some other Darwin.
I only see success/future for Darwinex only when these two things happen.
A) institutional investors will come to Darwinex
B) volatility in Darwins will go rapidly down and low risk swing trading Darwins will be majority and high risk day trading Darwins minority
IMHO investor probably is hungry for excitement when he see no problems with Darwins who can lose over 2-3% in a day or over 10% in a week. I don’t think institutional investors are looking to invest in such volatile Darwins.
I closed all my investments last week after over 2 years of investing. In current environment it is almost impossible to achieve good results here. I will have to wait probably few years for improvements. I was too over confident with my investing. Now I know that Darwinex is great project but it is not even close for investing real money. I am confident in saying that you can outperform over 95% (could be 99%) of investors here with investing in corporate bonds yielding 4-6% annually. I would like to be made wrong in thinking that more than 1-2% of investors here will make over 10% annually.
I’m done investing for some time now. Good luck to all of you who decided to beat very low odds and come out winners on the other side
It is not a matter of volatility, the problem is that we have too many bad darwins disguised into good darwins.
IMO we have 20 good darwins (1%) but they are too difficult to find.
I think winning investors are even less than 1%, after 6 years of social investing I am a profitable trader and still a losing investor.
At least as trader I know what I am doing.
IMO Darwinex should do this:
Despite the rules of equity in Darwinia we still see 40 new darwins per week.
This is not what investors need.
It may not be what investors need, but if Darwinex is to survive it has to make money as a broker. It is still a business at the end of the day, so even if the plethora of traders makes it even more difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff, it is probably a necessary evil.
Yes is a matter of policy: quantity or quality.
Making money as broker is the easy part.
BTW not everything is black
2018 has been very difficult also for hedge funds.
2018Q4 has been a disaster while 2019Q1 has been a bit better.
I’d be curious to know how many of these funded Darwins were exposed at DarwinIA, receiving a money prize. Because instead of researching fine metrics of Darwins, DarwinIA often offer some easy exposure for investors, or am I wrong ?
It could be true that many Darwins attract investors after winning allocation in DarwinIA. You would have to look for list of Darwins that won allocation on Darwinex Blog and then do research. Check how much has the invested capital increased in the month following the DarwinIA allocation.
We are slightly off topic but from my experience Darwinia is almost useless to attract investors.
At some point my KVL won the second prize, no increase in investors during the following weeks.
It also stacked 670k of allocation.
Investors are attracted by stuff like 100% return and 10% DD , often due to hindsight selections and manipulated inceptions.
Example FSK (hope trader behind this Darwin doesn’t mind that I use him as an example but I find his achievement incredible and he just jumps off the page)
He won 1st prize 3 months in a row from October to December 2018 with allocation over 470K in total. Great performance in those 3 months and in Feb 2019 he received first huge profit payment (majority from DarwinIA).
You can see not many investors in this Darwin in the end of 2018. But look how his Darwin started being popular from Jan 2019.
So you could speculate where those investors came from. Did they find this Darwin from searching all Darwins using filters due to his great performance toward end of 2018 or from his visibility created by winning DarwinIA 1st place 3 times in a row?
My conclusion. Winning DarwinIA may help a lot to make your Darwin visible considering you are competing with other over 2000 Darwins.
But at the same time I have to agree with @CavaliereVerde that most investors invest when they see very high % performance with low DD.