Let's see where we are after another 6 months.
Note: I am excluding Darwinex Darwins as they are not meant for long term investing.
2064 Darwins found.
Top 20 are above 233K. (were above 250K)
We have 17 Darwins with at least 250K AUM.
There are 11 Darwins with over 500K AUM (no change here in 6 months).
36 Darwins are over 100K AUM. (40 Darwins 6 months ago)
60 Darwins with at least 50K AUM. (70 Darwins 6 months ago)
Looking at where we were 6 months or 11 months ago, we can see that trend is down. Overall expected improvement has not come. Some well invested good performing Darwins have disappointed investors in the last 6 months. There are few Darwins that are going good. But we have many new Darwins with over 100K AUM who were not there year ago.
My conclusion: It is still very hard to create investment portoflio with at least 10 Darwins. Probability to achieve 20% annual performance is very low (haven't seen any investor achieve that yet). Dropping number of Darwins with 50K or 100K AUM may indicate that many investors are getting burned. I think most investors jump in and out very quickly. I don't blame them because there are still not enough good Darwins to choose from. This behavior of investors is not really attractive for potential Darwin providers. It is almost guaranteed that at least one good Darwin you invest in will give you over 30% loss in next 6-12 months and I think many investors are not prepared to experience that. Investors hope for decent 10-20% annually but are not prepared for highly volatile investing, which Darwins are.
I was positive/bullish on investing potential here. Now after couple years my sentiment is neutral. I think people who are very positive may have too big expectations what Darwinex could achieve in year or two. Reality may be that it may take even over 5 years to get where many of us hope for Darwinex to be. It's definitely very long term game.
If you are new investor here, save your money and opt for Demo investing accounts and stay with them for a year. Choose around 10 Darwins and keep them in one account (this is passive investing). Then create another portfolio where you can rotate Darwins every few months (this is more active investing). If you can't make at least 10% after 12 months on demo then stay on demo another year. Low number of quality Darwins and probability that you choose winning portfolio go against you. Darwins are highly volatile investing vehicles so if you are not prepared for 20% or 30% drawdowns then do not invest.
My prognosis for the rest of 2019 is this: no big improvements expected in AUM arena, numbers will be similar to what they are today.
(these are all my own personal opinions, make your own decisions)