I am providing the link to Myfxbook and screen captures in case the Myfxbook account disappears. I am also providing images of the hidden history, again, the execution times are what I’m hiding just as mentioned in the PDF. It is a short history but it is from real trading conditions w/ roughly the same equity before migrating to Darwinex.
After Myfxbook, the track record continues in Darwinex. I have indicated in the image below, roughly, where I have started to make changes such as changing multi-level variable risk to something more stable for the sake of the risk manager. At some point I abandoned TP’s in favor of various time stops to make duration of trades more uniform for Ex. I also started trading low probability strategies (not anymore) just to have trades for that day and to push the boundaries in the name of Ex. Learning from that error, I managed to increase trade frequency whilst maintaining somewhat of a uniform trade duration. In the future I will return to an optimal exit that I discovered during the changing process and I will try to re-introduce it gradually so the risk manager doesn’t freak out. It is my desire to maximize profits without changing the risk. Moving forward, if the Darwin is performing as expected, any changes will be done in an incubation account at Pepperstone.
I’m reluctant when providing past data because not much should be inferred from it given the way I eventually trade: The strategy is composed of various strategies with their own performance metrics but I manage them as a portfolio of strategies and I only select the highest probability trade for that one particular trade of the day (well, now I am aiming for two positions per day in the name of Ex). When you put them in a portfolio and you pick the trades, that changes a lot of things. Below is the monte carlo analysis of the portfolio where only the best trade was selected for the day. Now, remember that I rebalance the portfolio and make adjustments on the fly so you cannot infer too much from the data below. I bothered with monte carlo so I’m not completely shooting in the dark, as they say. I expect I will eventually see around 32-40% drawdown despite the data; however, the beauty of how I trade is that I afford myself a lot of time to conduct analysis and make adjustments (e.g. reducing risk or not trading).
Monte Carlo DD test of test data w/ $8k equity, fixed contracts–data going back to 2015. Don’t take it too serious.
Moving on to your question of how I perform the backtests, quite simply, I do it quite meticulously and until my eyes bleed–but it’s worth it. I have created indicators that tell me where I should get filled given the time of entry/exit. I use a lot of M1 data and experience data from the days of day trading marathons. Initially I was using Dukascopy data then I migrated to Pepperstone MT5 & retested using broker data just to make sure–then I did the same thing with Darwinex. There were some trades that were invalidated due to varying broker data but the performance was about the same, nothing that concerned me. It is painstaking work: logging every data one by one on a spreadsheet as well as looking at bar by intraday bar. I started doing it this way because I wanted to be intimate with the market movements and ask why certain things were happening and that’s something I couldn’t get with data mining. Only time will tell if it is ultimately the right decision but right now I feel it is right. As this is my full time job, I spend quite a lot of time analyzing my performance & process and I believe if I excel in that aspect then in the long term there is just no failing. Hopefully I make it just far enough to hire a trading coach and go to the next level.
Ok, well, that was quite a lot but hopefully that answered some questions. Back to work I go! I hope my reply presents well as I don’t see a preview button so I have no idea how it will look.