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VOW - shipolito

Welcome to the official VOW thread where you can discuss your concerns. Information regarding my strategy and myself is available for download in the link provided within my Darwin’s information section.

I urge participants to be nice, respectful, and mindful that what you say may affect the trader’s psychology for the worse which will most likely cause you or other investors to lose even more money.
Everyone has a different perspective and while you may not agree with my methods, please respect that my methods are what fits me.

Please allow up 48-72 hours for a reply as I am very busy with being as proficient as I can be.

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https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/VOW.4.8# :wink:

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Thanks IlIlIlIlI :smile:

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Hello shipolito and welcome!

At first sight, your system looks interesting, however there is not much data yet. You state in the pdf however that you have traded previous systems that were slightly different from the one you operate here? Do you have any previous track records? (or return distributions/equity curves/etc.)

Additionally, you have manually backtested the strategy as well. I’m also interested in how you performed these backtests and what their results are (in-sample / out-of-sample).

Cheers and good luck with your project!

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welcome a darwinex , good goood look. everybody are darwinex

I am providing the link to Myfxbook and screen captures in case the Myfxbook account disappears. I am also providing images of the hidden history, again, the execution times are what I’m hiding just as mentioned in the PDF. It is a short history but it is from real trading conditions w/ roughly the same equity before migrating to Darwinex.

After Myfxbook, the track record continues in Darwinex. I have indicated in the image below, roughly, where I have started to make changes such as changing multi-level variable risk to something more stable for the sake of the risk manager. At some point I abandoned TP’s in favor of various time stops to make duration of trades more uniform for Ex. I also started trading low probability strategies (not anymore) just to have trades for that day and to push the boundaries in the name of Ex. Learning from that error, I managed to increase trade frequency whilst maintaining somewhat of a uniform trade duration. In the future I will return to an optimal exit that I discovered during the changing process and I will try to re-introduce it gradually so the risk manager doesn’t freak out. It is my desire to maximize profits without changing the risk. Moving forward, if the Darwin is performing as expected, any changes will be done in an incubation account at Pepperstone.

I’m reluctant when providing past data because not much should be inferred from it given the way I eventually trade: The strategy is composed of various strategies with their own performance metrics but I manage them as a portfolio of strategies and I only select the highest probability trade for that one particular trade of the day (well, now I am aiming for two positions per day in the name of Ex). When you put them in a portfolio and you pick the trades, that changes a lot of things. Below is the monte carlo analysis of the portfolio where only the best trade was selected for the day. Now, remember that I rebalance the portfolio and make adjustments on the fly so you cannot infer too much from the data below. I bothered with monte carlo so I’m not completely shooting in the dark, as they say. I expect I will eventually see around 32-40% drawdown despite the data; however, the beauty of how I trade is that I afford myself a lot of time to conduct analysis and make adjustments (e.g. reducing risk or not trading).

Monte Carlo DD test of test data w/ $8k equity, fixed contracts–data going back to 2015. Don’t take it too serious.

Moving on to your question of how I perform the backtests, quite simply, I do it quite meticulously and until my eyes bleed–but it’s worth it. I have created indicators that tell me where I should get filled given the time of entry/exit. I use a lot of M1 data and experience data from the days of day trading marathons. Initially I was using Dukascopy data then I migrated to Pepperstone MT5 & retested using broker data just to make sure–then I did the same thing with Darwinex. There were some trades that were invalidated due to varying broker data but the performance was about the same, nothing that concerned me. It is painstaking work: logging every data one by one on a spreadsheet as well as looking at bar by intraday bar. I started doing it this way because I wanted to be intimate with the market movements and ask why certain things were happening and that’s something I couldn’t get with data mining. Only time will tell if it is ultimately the right decision but right now I feel it is right. As this is my full time job, I spend quite a lot of time analyzing my performance & process and I believe if I excel in that aspect then in the long term there is just no failing. Hopefully I make it just far enough to hire a trading coach and go to the next level.

Ok, well, that was quite a lot but hopefully that answered some questions. Back to work I go! I hope my reply presents well as I don’t see a preview button so I have no idea how it will look.

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Which fees are hidden by the 2 or 5 CHF withdrawals? Or did you withdraw profit?

If I understand your ? correctly, I withdrew profits in that account.

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Hello shipolito,

thanks for taking the time of writing up such an extensive reply! It seems to me that you are still discovering a lot about how to optimally trade your strategy though. I’d like to give you a little bit of advice not to rush things to get the Ex attribute up as fast as possible. If the strategy is solid, it will come and float up to the top soon enough. It took me 14 months to get to 10 Ex with 1 trade per day. But I am not sure whether it takes trade durations into account.

I also like that you are not afraid to suggest 30-40% drawdown is a possibility. I am assuming you ran a Monte Carlo by taking the return distribution from these best trades and sampling from that n times?

Anyhow, it looks like you put some serious thoughts in this and I’m looking forward to seeing how your project develops. I’ve put it on my watchlist :slight_smile:

Cheers!

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Thank you so much and you are correct with the MC. n = 1000 only. May you have a wonderful weekend.

Update: I will soon commence moving a majority of the account capital into one of my private accounts. After looking at strategies similar to mine in terms of trade frequency, I feel the capital will serve me better in the personal account until I have a sufficient record here. In the personal account, I can actually trade the strategy to its full potential (some sub strategies have a really good returns (4-10 R) when held just a bit longer–an act that is detrimental to my Ex score).

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I’d like to add that I’m working on unhiding assets traded but this changes the strategy even more (because it changes when I trade). If tests are good I will do it.

So far I’ve made many changes for Darwinex–as you can see when you compare previous vs new performance. It’s the result of changes, not emotional issues. I’m still confident about my future in Darwinex but only time wil tell.

Anyway, what do you guys think about unhiding information? Big impact or small impact for the majority of investors?

Cheers.

Please remove from watchlist. I’m reverting back to what works for me which is a couple of trades a month. Gonna be a snooze fest.

Concentrating on growing my own capital @ my other broker–it will be 800 years before I can feed my family with Darwinex/get full Ex. Wish I could trade more frequently but I’m just not built for that.

Thanks everyone.

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Hi @shipolito, sorry to see you going.
Can I ask what’s the difference between Darwinex and your other broker that you mention? I mean, can you do the same things you do with the other broker and also have the chance that, in 800 years, you will get funded through investors or through Darwinia?

Thanks.

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Hi Federico,

Thanks for taking the time to write. At my other broker, I can be me as well as provide for my family. I can also add to my strengths. At Darwinex, my trading DNA needs to change for the sake of algorithms/scores and I’m not just talking about trading more frequently. That’s the story of my life though, always making or doing things that just doesn’t fit the general mode so I guess the blame mostly goes to me.

Could I stay and trade with Darwinex without a Darwin? Of course. Darwinex is a wonderful broker to have a trading account with (LMAX partly to thank) but the perks I get with my current broker (no ESMA, spreads, customer service, no withdrawal fees, etc.) makes me want to stay with them for the most part–plus this whole Darwin thing left a bad taste. Besides, it’s not a good idea to have just one broker or one bank.

I thought I mentioned earlier that I will leave a small account here so I can develop a strategy just for investor funding but I guess I didn’t. Anyway that’s my current plan but I’m not sure if the strategy will remain at Darwinex, if successful. I mean, I just talked to a trader from a competing company and he’s already at $400k AuM w/ less than 1 year track record!

Anyway, I told my family that will strive to not need Darwinex or any funding by the time I get any recognition from Darwinex so that’s what I’ll do–to reach higher levels of performance without reliance on leverage. We’ll see; time and information changes situations.

Best wishes to all of you & Merry Xmas to those who celebrate the holiday.

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Ok, good luck and have a merry Christmas!

I’ve decided to follow SKI’s lead (I’m a big fan BTW) in terms of posting. If time permits, I will provide weekly updates about the underlying strategy as well as trading thoughts for the outgoing week. I will discuss what as gone right or wrong and way forward.

The decision is based on the fact that I still have an account here and rather than being
dormant for 800 years I thought it best to let people in on what’s going on with the strategy as well as my weekly trading thoughts. In that way, potential investors in the future will know more about strategy and the trader.

First things first, here’s what has changed since the last time I posted/crying about Ex:

For Darwinex, I plucked one of my best strategies from the war chest and I have decided to use it only on GBPUSD (for now). My intent is to know this strategy on GBPUSD more intimately–to study every nuance. It trades around 0-5 trades a month if you discount missed or skipped trades (and there will be many); however, even with low turnover I project double digit returns annually in Darwinex with current risk levels of 1-1.2%.

Mirror account: Myfxbook link coming soon. I created a mirror account on Pepperstone with around $10k starting capital and risking 2.5-3% per trade. I have high confidence in this strategy plus I’m also using it to fund a promise I made to my family.

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Catch-up post for 6-10 January 2020, GBP/USD:

First trade of the week executed well; however, as I reconfirmed the trade setup with my
backtest file I realized it was not a valid setup. Something in my gut just felt wrong and
I proved myself right. The setup was close but it was not valid. As a result, I moved SL to just beyond break even and let the trade work itself out. SL was taken out at a slight profit even after comissions and the price continued to go the wrong way.

I’ve adjusted my checklist to ensure not to repeat the oversight.

Second trade took a full loss. I noted some potential issues on why it had not worked then
tested my theories on a backtest but came to the conclusion that it’s just a normal loss and
no changes were necessary.

Third trade hit the full TP. I checked with my setups library and this trade was a valid setup. The only issue was on the Pepperstone mirror account, only 1 batch of the order was sent. The second one returned an error of invalid SL/TP. Somehow TP became = to SL but this issue was not duplicated in Darwinex even though the same order sending algorithm was running. I’ve added additional error handling in the code if this were to happen again. Sadly, it’s hard to replicate the error on a demo account but I believe I’ve added enough protective code to make me feel good about its continued use. Initially it had bothered me that I did not get the full profit on the mirror account but I’m thankful that such an error was brought to light early in trading year:

Every time I close a hole in my process, the closer I get to the goal.

For the last trade of the week, I terminated it just before NFP–and I just left on time as price got
whippy. If I had stayed just like I would have in backtest, I think the wide spreads would have taken
me out anyway and if not, the profit would be about the same as it was a non event.

I think it’s better to miss a move than to take a loss. Having no hole to climb out of is better than climbing out of a hole.

Let’s see what 13-17 Jan brings but as I wait, I continue to study the nuances of this strategy. I just
completed bar by bar analysis on year 2018 and now I’m working on 2019. At some point I need to see how the strategy would have fared in 2015-2016 given the volatility of that period–that way I have a
plan for when volatility picks up.

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Meh, I’m leaving Darwinex for good. Bye bye.

Hi there @shipolito

May I ask why you are leaving ?

Kind regards,