Catch-up post for 6-10 January 2020, GBP/USD:
First trade of the week executed well; however, as I reconfirmed the trade setup with my
backtest file I realized it was not a valid setup. Something in my gut just felt wrong and
I proved myself right. The setup was close but it was not valid. As a result, I moved SL to just beyond break even and let the trade work itself out. SL was taken out at a slight profit even after comissions and the price continued to go the wrong way.
I’ve adjusted my checklist to ensure not to repeat the oversight.
Second trade took a full loss. I noted some potential issues on why it had not worked then
tested my theories on a backtest but came to the conclusion that it’s just a normal loss and
no changes were necessary.
Third trade hit the full TP. I checked with my setups library and this trade was a valid setup. The only issue was on the Pepperstone mirror account, only 1 batch of the order was sent. The second one returned an error of invalid SL/TP. Somehow TP became = to SL but this issue was not duplicated in Darwinex even though the same order sending algorithm was running. I’ve added additional error handling in the code if this were to happen again. Sadly, it’s hard to replicate the error on a demo account but I believe I’ve added enough protective code to make me feel good about its continued use. Initially it had bothered me that I did not get the full profit on the mirror account but I’m thankful that such an error was brought to light early in trading year:
Every time I close a hole in my process, the closer I get to the goal.
For the last trade of the week, I terminated it just before NFP–and I just left on time as price got
whippy. If I had stayed just like I would have in backtest, I think the wide spreads would have taken
me out anyway and if not, the profit would be about the same as it was a non event.
I think it’s better to miss a move than to take a loss. Having no hole to climb out of is better than climbing out of a hole.
Let’s see what 13-17 Jan brings but as I wait, I continue to study the nuances of this strategy. I just
completed bar by bar analysis on year 2018 and now I’m working on 2019. At some point I need to see how the strategy would have fared in 2015-2016 given the volatility of that period–that way I have a
plan for when volatility picks up.