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VRT - VolcanoFX

The honour is all ours!

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After reading the comment from @JaumeAntoli in other thread, I think that would be interesting to know if the VRT’s underlying strategy(s) has changed to try to overcome the almost flat period between May 2017 and March 2018. I mean, VolcanoFX would you expect that something like this (1 year stagnation) is likely to happen again, or did you do some modifications to try to avoid the same problems?

I know that it doesn’t matter how much the strategy is optimized, it is always possible again a stagnation year, or even a loss year. But what I’m asking specifically is if the strategy is the same or if you have changed something to try to improve those results, for that market conditions. I guess the latter, but I just wanted to ask (as I found other darwins whose owner say that the strategy hasn’t changed in years and it still works)

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In case you missed the first post… :blush:

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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Damn, my bad :sweat_smile: Indeed I missed the post. What is even worst is that I already read it some weeks ago and I forgot it.

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GENERAL BALANCE SEPTEMBER 2018


Hello Dear Investors, here is a small update about recent performance of VRT during the month of September.

  • Total Replication for September is -1.53%

During the month activity as usual for the Darwin which despite low volatility has managed to loss and recover many trades. Particular problems during final weeks due to a particular session were different trades opened from several strategies took some loss during the same time. The recover this time came in few days and despite losing trades the month ended with a small loss in comparison to how the situation was taking shape. September however was a very particular month, very low volatility and few times that there was an increase, it was only to reverse the direction without ever going out from a grey area that seems to had involved some pairs. We know the beginning and not the end of a phase, sure is that like all phases will come at a conclusion.


THIRD QUARTER Q3 2018

  • Third Quarter ended for a + 10.66%.

Third quarter of this year went good with a very good percentage, considering also that two losing month were little and not sufficient to wipe out profit of August. Percentage was well spread over the three months, Drawdown was a component of them but recover come quickly many times.

That’s all for now, let’s see the beginning of October, thanks to all Investors for their Trust.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE OCTOBER 2018


Hello guys, here is the balance of October about general performance of VRT on Markets.

  • Final Replication of October is -5.84%.

As you can see during the month VRT had some problems into different sessions. From the start until the end, several components of the Portfolio took some losses, sometimes also correlated between them amplifying the all. However sometimes this cannot be avoided, and the fact that conditions are not the most favorable in this phase is something quite cyclical which comes with more or less force on various equities of strategies in general. This obviously happens in both directions, both favorably and unfavorably cases, it cannot be forecasted. Of course in the second case it lands to a period of stagnation, a term that indicate a component of the journey that we all know and that play a role also in this system. Periods like this, where more strategies of a Portfolio took losses, comes due to different factors, what is certain is that they cannot be foreseen, nor must be taken as a changeover point for the general alignment. Some gains during the month were only to compensate bad sessions, and the general balance see a negative percentage for the end of October. Not the best way to start the new Quarter, but since we are just at its beginning let’s see also the evolution of it in the following weeks/months. That’s all for now, a big thanks to the Investors that are still on this Darwin, i see that with the period several have left the situation, time will give answers.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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Hello Dear Investors, here an update about recent performance of VRT on Markets.

GENERAL BALANCE NOVEMBER 2018

  • November has ended with a -7.9%

One of worst months for this strategy on markets, actually during November most affected components were volatility breakouts. Volatility gone hand in hand with Inversions this month, just few directions and a lot of potential directions that turned back in few hours. Those conditions are far from being good on some type of systems and even if during previous month the Darwin was suffering less those type of movements, during November also reversal components on some pairs have failed causing a sharp loss on the Darwin. By the way those congested phases are presented during the years and even if are very ugly to face, are not an hint to change a portfolio or the foundations of some systems that during some periods works simply good during others try at their best to survive. We will see in the following weeks the conclusion of this year, to understand if this final part, manifested with a congestion even more during this past month, will have just one face to show or it will be double sided.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE 2018


Hello guys, here some consideration more about the Darwin VRT and its performance during the 2018.

  • Total Replication of 2018 is + 7.88%

Since the start of previous year the Portfolio has been revisited a little bit to correct some problems concerning VaR and the general exposure during some phases, this because we were / are constantly at work to introduce new things on our systems and improve performance / stagnation without ever derailing from the main purpose our trading idea. During the year the Darwin has worked with a sensible lower VaR in comparison to the past, during first semester due to our modify on the alignment, in the second semester also due to a prolonged period of low volatility that reduced the exposition during some movements with the result of a reduced VaR and so a boosted replication. This however has boosted profit during good months of trading but it has also amplified loss during bad months. Talking about numbers, during previous updates we have marked the performance of our system as always, and so to have a balance, first part of the Year ended with a +17% and during the second part of it some profits were wiped out in particular way during last quarter were the Darwin has reached a new level of drawdown.
That’s the result of several strategies, in particular way Contrarian and Volatility ones. Contrarian strategies worked very good, but during last semester had many problems for different reasons: first of all, some of trading pairs were involved in very prolonged trends that not helped in a good way reversal occasions, amplifying the losses not only during weeks but also during weekends with very evident gaps on some pairs/occasions which recorded higher losses due to the fact that the SL protections have been exceeded even more than the double and so good periods of gains were wiped out in just few trades. During the back-test those occasions are cyclical during years and are presented both for the upwards both during downward, more balanced for the upside on the long run. However, when those occasions are presented during prolonged downwards the quote of the Darwin could be a bit more volatile than the usual, but since this, we have preferred to reduce in last times the exposition during the pause. Apart from this, also breakouts were in a very difficult moment, due to a total lack of direction on some traded pairs. Markets were imbued of fast movements alternated with fast inversions, with the creation of narrow and prolonged ranges from which some of them are actually in, stressing some components that uses volatility to select trade occasions.


OUR LAST CHANGES FOR TWISTER FX


  • Minor fix on the exposition during weekends, to avoid problems of volatility for the quote of the Darwin due to Market’s gaps: this will reduce both gain, both loss over the weekend. Activity will be reduced, not totally erased.

  • Doubled the Equity for Twister FX on Darwinex.

  • This period gave us the possibility to study other type of strategies both on minor pairs, both on majors, and with the beginning of this new year despite the previous portfolio will be untouched, we will add something more to cover at our best also those type of phases that are giving some problems for some strategies.

  • We have also put some work on the capacity side, now the Portfolio is behaving better with a setup the considers more divergence and capacity concerns, as a result of this combined with our previous setup that was still considering spread/slippage problems, during these previous months also the capacity attribute was growing and divergence problem experienced during the year is solved for now.

That’s all for now guys, more infos will be released during next times, a big thanks to Investors that are still on the Darwin, for other ones who left, we hope it’s not a buying high selling low behavior.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE JANUARY 2019


Hello guys, here is an update regarding recent performance of VRT on markets during January.

  • January has end with a -3.60%.

January was a negative month for the Portfolio running behind VRT, in particular way strategies that looks for long term movement had again problems to exploit directions. This not due to the fact that traded pairs are not moving, but because the alignment of the Portfolio takes confirmation from several factors and during the month the alternation of direction and some ups and down between some areas gave a bit of smoke more for some components. This landed to negative trades, short-lenght trades without a particular gain and the impossibility of exploiting certain directions due to sudden movements, which led the Portfolio to remain neutral during certain phases, which instead coincided with larger market movements. The other strategies partially compensated for the losses and even if they offset some of them they failed to determine a positive or flat percentage for the Portfolio at the end of the month.

Currently, February is positive and although it lacks a part of it, it is impossible to make predictions on the final result of this month, we are waiting to see an evolution in order to draw an adequate balance.

Thanks to all our Investors,

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE FEBRUARY 2019


Hello guys, here an update regarding Performance of VRT on market during February.

  • February ended with a -7.4%

Also February was full of tricky moments for the Darwin and even if the first part of it was positive, during the last two weeks of market the Darwin faced different phases which gave again problems for some strategies of the Portfolio underling the Darwin, in particular way the volatility ones.
With the continuous alternation of movement and direction that are causing some exposition more during some periods and some less during others, the all has landed to have an alternation of VaR for the Strategy that is involving also the Darwin, which is boosting a bit the replication during recent phases, causing in this bad period for the Portfolio a little boost for the coincided DD. Actually the difference is around a +30% more for the Darwin in respect the low of -20% DD of the underlying strategy. Also During the previous 2018, the engine has worked with a sensible lower VaR in comparison to the past times in particular way also during second semester for a very prolonged period of low volatility that reduced the exposition during some movements with the result of a reduced VaR and so a boosted replication, and with the end of this quarter and beginning of the second ones we have to look more at this, trying to correct/normalize this value for longer periods, in order to make longer periods with a closer value at risk.
I underline that nothing will be touched about components that are actually looking on possible directions on the market, they will always look for markets with the same eyes, but the some section of the portfolio will be a bit more conservative on the exposition. I repeat that, beside all our consideration and period of little maintenance, those phases are cyclical over the years, like there are good periods of gains there are bad period of loosing, so beyond these parts of the journey a bit tricky to face, there is nothing over the common for some Portfolios.

Wish the best to all, a and more positive continuation of this first Quarter of 2019 that is coming to its end. There are other considerations to expose, I will reserve them for the end of March.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE MARCH 2019


Hello Investors, here an update regarding recent performance of VRT during March.

  • March end with a +4.65%

A bit of difficulty for last two weeks, due to the continuous alternation of volatility and direction of some pairs during some market phases. March although it has granted some chances of recovery for some strategies, it is confirmed a difficult month for some others, in particular for the Trend components on GBP which were expecting more prolonged movements not verified or at least only in part. The portfolio was quite conservative in the last stages, the activity was slightly reduced due to also various filters that face the market trying to avoid the fog present in the last moments and weeks, the exposition was more homogeneous almost during all the parts.


GENERAL BALANCE FIRST QUARTER 2019

The past quarter was quite difficult to deal with, a general feeling that has involved performance of several methods. Over the years, there are phases of difficulty due to different causes, each strategy tackles them sooner or later and these depend on the fact that from the market one cannot always take advantage of a particular characteristic. The first two months have been particularly tricky to deal with, some betrayed pair have been in a real gray area from which they still have a hard time getting out, there was a real lack of volatility which although generated positive returns for similarly reversal portfolios or strategies that make use of contrarian methods, it has put into serious difficulties strategies with a higher LA and which are quick to select market routes. Such situations have sprouted in the course of the month of February, the worst of the quarter. During the previous month, the continuous movements generated due to the British political situation, generated positive movements for the quote and some strategies of the portfolio, and negative movements for other components, making sure that there was a recovery of about half of the losses of the quarter, but not enough to make it green. The whole thing could end in a better way, obviously even worse. We continue to emphasize that these phases, as they may seem complicated and tricky, recur over the years for different reasons, even if they do not depend on political factors and the like, it is part of the nature of markets and nothing more.


ABOUT THE ALIGNMENT

We continue our research to ensure that the portfolio has a more homogeneous exposure and greater diversification during its cycles. For the first point, we are continuing to work trying to ensure that the portfolio is as homogeneous during its phases, trying to limit the correlation and avoiding distorting the previous alignment. For the second point, we have come to the conclusion of a study on several other solutions to make this portfolio more diversified, which starting from the next quarter, will be able to take advantage of new strategies that will join the precedents that will remain unchanged in their entirety, also by a new traded pair, the Gold (XAUUSD). These additions are not to be considered as a substitution of the previous techniques, we stress once again that great changes are not necessary during certain phases which are to be considered normal under predetermined market conditions, and that these additions come from a deep study that we cultivate week after week since always, able to improve where possible the situation of our personal Algo Portfolios. These components showed us that they would bring profit in the previous years as well as in the previous months and are inserted for a future benefit, not as a replacement but as a supplement. Since we know well that it is necessary to do things very calmly, Darwin is more like a big ship to maneuver, all the changes will be made with extreme slowness on the underlying TwisterFX to avoid possible problems for the Darwin.


Thanks to Investors that are still on the Darwin, considering the picture on a yearly time-frame, the Darwin has experienced an H.W.M. of its Quote coincided with an H.W.M. of the AUM, and now it is experiencing a low for both the side, we’ll see over the long run.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE APRIL 2019


Hi guys, here is an update about VRT performance on the markets during April.

  • The month of April ends with a + 0.10%.

A flat April for the Portfolio in question, which with some difficulty failed to shine but only to have weeks of profit alternated with those of loss. During the month there were several situations of both Breakout and Reverse and having had a double face throughout the month, some components gained good during some phases, other components the opposite.
During the month thanks to the introduction of the last components spread on other pairs, the portfolio did not lose during some phases, a sign of the fact that the greater diversification has also helped in this case the total performance, or at least has limited the damage caused by other components.

Thanks for the trust to Investors who are still on the Darwin,

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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GENERAL BALANCE MAY 2019

Hi Investors, here is a small update on VRT performance during the month of May.

  • May ended with a -1.44%

The month has passed and besides not bringing positive things in terms of percentages, it has been quite difficult especially during the last few weeks. The alignment of the month has been quite tending to Reversion on some pair, which is contrary to others over the last two weeks. Particularly some reversal components have struggled to shine because large movements have generated full losses. This has penalized the Darwin that although during the month it was maintaining a positive or at least a flat percentage, taken up by the first losses of the month, it accumulated obvious negative sessions during the end.
Unfortunately, the market is also this and apart from maintaining the rules of everything that currently make one perceive a more spread situation on the various traded pairs not much can be done, let’s see also June how it will go to draw conclusions and final balances for this first part of the year that is going away.

Thanks to the old and new investors,

VolcanoFX :volcano:

Hello everyone, here we go for a little update that will cover last month, last quarter and first half of this year with relative performance of VRT on markets.


GENERAL BALANCE JUNE 2019


June was a decent month, even if it was imbued of tricky sessions for many strategies, the alignment made different profit during some directions with a good timing and managed to exploit different small heights. At the end of it some positions were ruining the percentage but even with some losing trades, the percentage was decent at the end. The system was very active during some movements over last two weeks, activity was high in comparison to other parts of June, more triggers to follow thanks to choppy market.

  • June ended with a + 2.93%

GENERAL BALANCE SECOND QUARTER (Q2 2019)


Second Quarter was full of small up and down for the equity, the system had some problem during prolonged phase of uptrend and downtrend of some pair but at the end even if has closed a negative and a flat month, the percentage was positive and there was a little recovery in comparison to previous negative quarter.

  • Second Quarter Q2 of 2019 has ended with +1.6%

The alignment has been quite tending to Reversion on some pairs, but some reversal components have struggled to shine because large movements have generated full losses during some occasions.


GENERAL BALANCE FIRST SEMESTER 2019


Percentage of first semester is still negative, decent session of second quarter weren’t enough in comparison to accumulated losing sessions of first quarter. Some pairs have been in a real gray area from which they still have a hard time getting out like first part of the year, there was a real lack of volatility which although generated positive returns for reversal part of the portfolio or strategies that make use of contrarian methods, but it has put into serious difficulties strategies that uses trends to have profit.

  • First semester of 2019 has ended with -4.74%

VRT is still experiencing a low about A.U.M. side, but thanks to Investors still on the Darwin.

VolcanoFX :volcano:

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