Putting my money where my mouth is (I rarely swing past a week, even less so a couple months/years). Independance day, after the strongest June month of the S&P500 since 1955, entering to -38.2% swing short the indices. Atm, it’s just a simple action, not a claim to be right (the odds are low and my decision is also taking this aspect into account)
Counting on the DB charisma to accompany this bet (half irony)
…Regarding the crypto mechanisms in place about funding/lending and margin trading, aka most innovations in the space, plenty of the services don’t seem viable enough. I believe a good part of the ecosystem could blow someday when the volatility increases to levels we haven’t known yet. There’s no way to hedge against this risk because it is not dependant on the market direction.
The depositors thinking they’re invested at a null or low risk may lose it all. Only the owners of the real deal (spot assets), kept away from a counterparty risk, would be escaping the heat.
Back on track, I’m relatively confident the cryptos will cross a period of unusual madness one of these days, just to disturb the unhealthy settings of many actors. Don’t know if it will happen as a manipulation on purpose, it could also happen from a “domino” cascading effect of some sort.